right
Conservative
Posts: 18,772
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 8:39:00 GMT
Is there any memory of Labour's near miss in Billericay in 1997 and Labour snatching the Billericay seat in 1966. I was aware of the 1997 near miss although I was surprised that the Loyal Conservative only got 6% of the vote and that Labour had surged so much, I'd always had this seat down as an unbroken Blue seat.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 6, 2024 9:27:45 GMT
Is there any memory of Labour's near miss in Billericay in 1997 and Labour snatching the Billericay seat in 1966. I was aware of the 1997 near miss although I was surprised that the Loyal Conservative only got 6% of the vote and that Labour had surged so much, I'd always had this seat down as an unbroken Blue seat. A lot of the Labour surge came at the expense of the Lib Dems. Gorman would have held on easily but for the the so called "Loyal Conservative". As for 1966, the then Billericay seat is nothing like its modern namesake. It covered a vast area (Billericay, Basildon and Brentwood) and by the time of 1966 had an electorate of over 100,000. Commuter land was of course very different then as well with this area having a huge number of recent arrivals from the East End. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 6, 2024 9:56:30 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 6, 2024 10:02:13 GMT
Looking at wards wholly in this constituency, the Conservatives had a lead of about 1500 votes over Labour in 2024, and I suspect they had a bigger lead in the rest of the old Crouch ward than Labour did in the rest of the old Vange ward. There was a bit of a turnout differential which will probably be narrower in the general election, but even so we would need to make forward progress from May to take this.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,772
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 10:30:00 GMT
Is there any memory of Labour's near miss in Billericay in 1997 and Labour snatching the Billericay seat in 1966. I was aware of the 1997 near miss although I was surprised that the Loyal Conservative only got 6% of the vote and that Labour had surged so much, I'd always had this seat down as an unbroken Blue seat. A lot of the Labour surge came at the expense of the Lib Dems. Gorman would have held on easily but for the the so called "Loyal Conservative". As for 1966, the then Billericay seat is nothing like its modern namesake. It covered a vast area (Billericay, Basildon and Brentwood) and by the time of 1966 had an electorate of over 100,000. Commuter land was of course very different then as well with this area having a huge number of recent arrivals from the East End. I had Liberal voting relatives in the wider seat, although in the 70s rather than 60s. I remember them saying that the East End transplants who came from the staunchest Labour areas were the staunchest Tory voters. They also said it could take time for it to be apparent. |
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Post by batman on Jun 6, 2024 15:01:43 GMT
Looking at wards wholly in this constituency, the Conservatives had a lead of about 1500 votes over Labour in 2024, and I suspect they had a bigger lead in the rest of the old Crouch ward than Labour did in the rest of the old Vange ward. There was a bit of a turnout differential which will probably be narrower in the general election, but even so we would need to make forward progress from May to take this. I think there are quite a lot of constituencies where Labour will do better in the general election than in May. Whether this is one of them is hard to predict though |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,772
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 17:33:40 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 6, 2024 18:51:28 GMT
Can anyone from the Tories explain why a candidate wasn’t chosen earlier? I appreciate the election was announced suddenly but John Barron announced his retirement last October. Why wait so long without a candidate?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 6, 2024 19:11:28 GMT
Because the associations who got to pick before the election were allowed to decide their own shortlists, and almost all of them picked locals. Holding them back for the short campaign meant CCHQ got to pick the shortlists. Not sure why it's this one in particular Holden was plumped for, as whilst it looks safe it's not necessarily the safest seat that has selected recently.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2024 19:16:30 GMT
Has this been kept open in case a grandee like Holden didn't find a seat elsewhere? |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 6, 2024 19:30:17 GMT
Has this been kept open in case a grandee like Holden didn't find a seat elsewhere? That is an unworthy thought.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 6, 2024 19:56:21 GMT
Has this been kept open in case a grandee like Holden didn't find a seat elsewhere? That is an unworthy thought.
Are you morphing into The Bishop |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 6, 2024 20:09:56 GMT
That is an unworthy thought.
Are you morphing into The Bishop That would be an ecumenical matter. |
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Post by batman on Jun 6, 2024 20:51:13 GMT
You can't be a grandee on less than 5 years' parliamentary service however much you might try to be
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,772
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 21:56:56 GMT
Can anyone from the Tories explain why a candidate wasn’t chosen earlier? I appreciate the election was announced suddenly but John Barron announced his retirement last October. Why wait so long without a candidate? Both main parties have held back seats so that they can dictate shortlists or select outright |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 6, 2024 23:13:12 GMT
Why don't they but the papers in early tomorrow for their own counter candidate? They are the valid local party. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 6, 2024 23:19:51 GMT
Why don't they but the papers in early tomorrow for their own counter candidate? They are the valid local party. Because they’d get about 10 votes, they’d be nothing without the Tory party logo (even in its current dire state) and they know it! Yet they still think paying a £40 gives them rights ordained to overturn the party’s candidate. They knew they were joining the Tory party, not the Paris Commune. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 6, 2024 23:24:37 GMT
Why don't they but the papers in early tomorrow for their own counter candidate? They are the valid local party. Because they’d get about 10 votes, they’d be nothing without the Tory party logo (even in its current dire state) and they know it! Yet they still think paying a £40 gives them rights ordained to overturn the party’s candidate. They knew they were joining the Tory party, not the Paris Commune. They are the local party and if they adopt a candidate they can put in the papers and use the logo. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 6, 2024 23:53:32 GMT
Because they’d get about 10 votes, they’d be nothing without the Tory party logo (even in its current dire state) and they know it! Yet they still think paying a £40 gives them rights ordained to overturn the party’s candidate. They knew they were joining the Tory party, not the Paris Commune. They are the local party and if they adopt a candidate they can put in the papers and use the logo. You must have a certificate signed by the party’s nominating officer to do that. And the Tory party’s nominating officer would report directly to… er Richard Holden |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 7:33:12 GMT
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