|
Post by johnloony on Feb 29, 2024 23:28:27 GMT
Earlier today I had the crazy idea that the result might be
Galloway 11,705 Ali Labour 9,121
|
|
|
Post by kevinf on Feb 29, 2024 23:51:46 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30% Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60% Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00% Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30% Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00% George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 8.50% by johnloony to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 25.50% Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90% William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90% Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30% Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30% David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00% Winning Party Predictions Range 9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00% 7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80% 1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80% 1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA Actually I amended that when the Lab candidate was disowned to a Workers Party win, see first page.
|
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
|
Post by nyx on Mar 1, 2024 2:56:49 GMT
Well, it's looking like everybody will have been quite a long way out here.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 8:25:02 GMT
Absolutely, nobody saw Tully getting that many or Ali getting that few. Although most people have at least picked the correct winner. I should have predicted far fewer for Ali, it didn't seem logical that he could be anywhere near winning and I allowed myself to be swayed by theories to the contrary. Yes some postal votes were cast before Ali was disowned; but many postal voters do not vote immediately after receiving their ballot papers. Quite apart from everything else. It also looks as if Danczuk has name recognition all right, but is positively disliked by a large majority of Rochdale voters. Reform probably would have done better with a different candidate, and given the circumstances should have done.
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 1, 2024 11:14:55 GMT
There will be a delay is announcing the results as my sister has taken a turn for the worse, as I have posted on the living with disabilities thread.
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 1, 2024 11:15:42 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30%
DHAA I believe that figure must have been erroneously carried over from my old prediction- my revised prediction had Otten on 1.5%. Thank you for going to this effort- can't have been easy given the number of revised predictions!
will double check later.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 1, 2024 12:47:28 GMT
Absolutely, nobody saw Tully getting that many or Ali getting that few. Although most people have at least picked the correct winner. I should have predicted far fewer for Ali, it didn't seem logical that he could be anywhere near winning and I allowed myself to be swayed by theories to the contrary. Yes some postal votes were cast before Ali was disowned; but many postal voters do not vote immediately after receiving their ballot papers. Quite apart from everything else. It also looks as if Danczuk has name recognition all right, but is positively disliked by a large majority of Rochdale voters. Reform probably would have done better with a different candidate, and given the circumstances should have done. Yes this byelection proved quite a few theories wrong. Which hasn't stopped a lot of Westminster pundits rushing into instant "takes" this morning, which sometimes manage to be even more dreadful than usual.
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 1, 2024 16:21:56 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30%
DHAA I believe that figure must have been erroneously carried over from my old prediction- my revised prediction had Otten on 1.5%. Thank you for going to this effort- can't have been easy given the number of revised predictions!
You are right, original post corrected.
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 1, 2024 16:27:03 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition. Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30% Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60% Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00% Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30% Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00% George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 8.50% by johnloony to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 25.50% Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90% William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90% Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30% Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30% David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00% Winning Party Predictions Range 9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00% 7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80% 1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80% 1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA WTFAYTA?
yes I failed to adjust from original prediction on summary sheet. Now corrected.
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 1, 2024 17:14:15 GMT
Rochdale By-Election Prediction Competition Result
Congratulations to the winner nyx who won this very difficult competition. Well done also to doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ who finished second and to YL who completes the podium in third.
Final Points nyx 54.9 doktorb 56.7 YL 58.9 batman 63.9 greenhert 64.1 peterl 65.3 johnloony 67.1 kevinf 67.3 Pete Whitehead 68.1 manchesterman 68.3 froome 77.1 Tony Otim 78.3 Heslingtonian 78.9 LDCaerdydd 80.1 DHAA 80.9 Forfarshire Conservative 81.3 uthacalthing 90.7 gramps191919 92.1
Points before Penalties nyx 54.9 doktorb 56.7 YL 58.9 batman 63.9 greenhert 64.1 peterl 65.3 johnloony 67.1 kevinf 67.3 Pete Whitehead 68.1 froome 68.1 manchesterman 68.3 Tony Otim 69.3 Heslingtonian 69.9 LDCaerdydd 71.1 DHAA 71.9 Forfarshire Conservative 72.3 uthacalthing 81.7 gramps191919 82.6
Percentages used were as posted on the Rochdale By-Election Thread, which add up with rounding to 100.1
Thank you to all who entered. DHAA
|
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
|
Post by nyx on Mar 1, 2024 17:38:50 GMT
It is rather astounding that my score of 54.9 points, which is worse than any prediction made by anyone in any of these by-election prediction threads since 2021, is still nevertheless winning!
Certainly a difficult one.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 18:54:54 GMT
I don't think any of us can blame ourselves. There was nothing to suggest that Tully would do that well. The BBC did a vox pop not long before polling day & never mentioned him.
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Mar 1, 2024 19:50:00 GMT
I don't think any of us can blame ourselves. There was nothing to suggest that Tully would do that well. The BBC did a vox pop not long before polling day & never mentioned him. The first indication I had that Tully might do well was early on election night when Sky news was filling in the waiting time by showing a few vox-pops from passers-by 8n Rochdale. It was only brief, and they only included about three people, but one of them was a woman “Are you going to vote in the by-election today?” “I’ve just been to vote” “Who did you vote for?” “Tully” so it made me think that either Tully is more popular than we know about, or it’s a statistical freak event of randomly finding a minority candidate’s voter. It was about an hour later that I started reading rumours on Twitter that Tully was second. I have been thinking about what the result might have been if there had been a proper normal Labour candidate and campaign. There were various independent candidates: Coleman (Just Stop Oil, Insulate Britain) William Howarth (Parents Against Grooming) David Tully (Local stuff and football) Michael Howarth (unknown) They are the sort of candidates who could “normally” get possibly 1,000 or 2,000 votes or about 5%, if they are prominent and active and lucky. In the absence of a proper Labour candidate, they are the sort of people who would (in an AV election) get lots of 2nd preferences from Labour voters. When I was doing my predikshun, I was trying to guess what sort of prominence they would have (and I predicted 1.8, 0.9, 0.3 and 0.2) but I was also consciously thinking that any errors in my predicted percentages would only be 1% or 2% away from the actual result - and that therefore it wouldn’t matter because the big errors in the prediction competition would be on the main party candidates. The result for Tully reminds me of the 5.3% for the “Hamilton Accies Home, Watson Away” candidate in Hamilton South in 1999. Perhaps the 5% he got is about the same that Tully would have got in a normal by-election campaign.
|
|
|
Post by uthacalthing on Mar 2, 2024 9:50:08 GMT
In an AV election, any well-informed Labour voter who supported Rochdale AFC would vote Tully 1 and Labour 2
How do I come nearly last when all I did was plagiarise Nyx, who won? Do you get penalties for Plagiarism? (OK, my round everyone down 0.1% and give the resulting 1% to Ali changed my winner from his Galloway to Ali)
And yes, one significant takeaway from this by-election is just how hopeless the MSM is, that they racked up £000s in expenses for a week in Rochdale Premierinn and not one of them called Tully as saving his deposit, let alone coming a comfortable seconds.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 2, 2024 11:15:45 GMT
Earlier today I had the crazy idea that the result might be Galloway 11,705 Ali Labour 9,121 You weren't far off with one of those tbf.
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Mar 2, 2024 13:02:02 GMT
Earlier today I had the crazy idea that the result might be Galloway 11,705 Ali Labour 9,121 You weren't far off with one of those tbf. Prominent Labour politician thinks that 9,121 is not far off 2,402 Just in case anybody was womdering, those numbers are from the last time there was a parliamentary by-election on 29th February (1944, Bury St Edmunds)
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Mar 2, 2024 13:15:10 GMT
And yes, one significant takeaway from this by-election is just how hopeless the MSM is, that they racked up £000s in expenses for a week in Rochdale Premierinn and not one of them called Tully as saving his deposit, let alone coming a comfortable seconds. While I was waiting for the result to be declared, as I saw Jon Craig and BBC Somebody standing around waiting, and a few other journalists vaguely interviewing vague candidates or whoever, the thought occurred to me that I wondered what the cost of the by-election was. Not just the direct cost (hiring polling stations, paying the counters, printing the ballots and so on), but what was the extra peripheral cost? The salaries of all those journalists? The hotel bills for all those who travelled (Nick Delves told me that he was in the same hotel as Jon Craig)? All the bus fares of canvassers travelling around the constituency? And then compare and contrast that cost with the fact that 60% of the electors in Rochdale didn’t even bother to vote. I sometimes wonder what would be the result of a by-election if literally none of the candidates or parties did any campaigning at all - no leaflets, no interviews, nothing.
|
|
|
Post by uthacalthing on Mar 3, 2024 0:49:20 GMT
A by-election is a huge boost to a local authority economy worth many times more than the cost. Most of our worthless MPs would be doing a favour to their community by resigning mid-term. Or dying of course.
|
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
|
Post by nyx on Mar 3, 2024 7:04:05 GMT
How do I come nearly last when all I did was plagiarise Nyx, who won? Do you get penalties for Plagiarism? (OK, my round everyone down 0.1% and give the resulting 1% to Ali changed my winner from his Galloway to Ali) Well, after Ali was un-endorsed by his party I transferred about 10% of his vote to Galloway in my revised prediction, which surely helps.
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 3, 2024 8:02:35 GMT
How do I come nearly last when all I did was plagiarise Nyx, who won? Do you get penalties for Plagiarism? (OK, my round everyone down 0.1% and give the resulting 1% to Ali changed my winner from his Galloway to Ali) Well, after Ali was un-endorsed by his party I transferred about 10% of his vote to Galloway in my revised prediction, which surely helps.
Correct, the big difference is because you changed your prediction. You were more asccurate where it mattered, Galloway, Ali, Reform and Green. Plus you didn't get faults for the wrong winner.
|
|