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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 29, 2024 15:59:52 GMT
It's crazy that all of our predictions put all of the candidates below 35%. We're going to look silly if Labour wins with 50%, or if there is a massive vote for Galloway (like in Bradford West in 2012) - which is unlikely but possible. The low predictions for Labour and Galloway are all dependent on big shares of the vote for Reform and/or Conservative and/or Lib Dem. But Lib Dems and Reform might both flop down to 3% anyway.
Good job you posted that as I'd missed that you and 2 others had revised their predictions without alerting me.
I've checked all posts for edits just now. Please alert me if further edits are done.
All 16 entries so far have been noted down and accepted into the competition. Entries will be accepted until 10pm tonight, close of poll.
DHAA
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Post by johnloony on Feb 29, 2024 16:15:37 GMT
It's crazy that all of our predictions put all of the candidates below 35%. We're going to look silly if Labour wins with 50%, or if there is a massive vote for Galloway (like in Bradford West in 2012) - which is unlikely but possible. The low predictions for Labour and Galloway are all dependent on big shares of the vote for Reform and/or Conservative and/or Lib Dem. But Lib Dems and Reform might both flop down to 3% anyway. Good job you posted that as I'd missed that you and 2 others had revised their predictions without alerting me. I've checked all posts for edits just now. Please alert me if further edits are done.
All 16 entries so far have been noted down and accepted into the competition. Entries will be accepted until 10pm tonight, close of poll. DHAA
I did "alert you" by mentioning that I have changed my prediction about 5 times. But I didn't even need to, because it was all well before the deadline. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 29, 2024 17:53:21 GMT
Good job you posted that as I'd missed that you and 2 others had revised their predictions without alerting me. I've checked all posts for edits just now. Please alert me if further edits are done.
All 16 entries so far have been noted down and accepted into the competition. Entries will be accepted until 10pm tonight, close of poll. DHAA
I did "alert you" by mentioning that I have changed my prediction about 5 times. But I didn't even need to, because it was all well before the deadline.
ok, I'll take your word on that. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Feb 29, 2024 18:18:00 GMT
I think I will stick with my current entry even if it isn't necessarily the one I'd make now.
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Post by uthacalthing on Feb 29, 2024 19:47:08 GMT
I will stick with my plagiarism of nyx prediction even if its not one they would make now |
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Post by froome on Feb 29, 2024 20:31:33 GMT
A late entry, but I have absolutely no idea how this election is going to play out. Labour win perhaps, who knows?  Labour 29.4% Workers Party 28.5% Conservative 15.6% Reform 14.6% Lib Dem 6.2% W. Howarth (Ind) 2.0% M. Coleman (no description) 1.6% Green Party 1.3% D. Tully (Ind) 0.4% OMRLP 0.2% W. Howarth (no description) 0.2% |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 29, 2024 20:42:55 GMT
A late entry, but I have absolutely no idea how this election is going to play out. Labour win perhaps, who knows? Labour 29.4% Workers Party 28.5% Conservative 15.6% Reform 14.6% Lib Dem 6.2% W. Howarth (Ind) 2.0% M. Coleman (no description) 1.6% Green Party 1.3% D. Tully (Ind) 0.4% OMRLP 0.2% W. Howarth (no description) 0.2%
I have accepted this, though it is M Howarth who is no description, not a 2nd W Howarth.
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Post by gramps191919 on Feb 29, 2024 21:18:49 GMT
Lib Dem’s 27.9%
Workers Party 26.5%
Labour 20.5%
Reform 11.6%
Conservative 9.3%
Greens 2.9%
OMRLP 0.7%
Mark Coleman 0.2%
Michael Howarth 0.2%
William Howarth 0.2%
David Tully 0.5%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 29, 2024 21:28:09 GMT
That is a .... bold prediction...
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 29, 2024 21:35:03 GMT
All 18 entries so far have been noted down and accepted into the competition. Entries will be accepted until 10pm tonight, close of poll.
DHAA
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Post by batman on Feb 29, 2024 21:56:27 GMT
Good job you posted that as I'd missed that you and 2 others had revised their predictions without alerting me. I've checked all posts for edits just now. Please alert me if further edits are done.
All 16 entries so far have been noted down and accepted into the competition. Entries will be accepted until 10pm tonight, close of poll. DHAA
I did "alert you" by mentioning that I have changed my prediction about 5 times. But I didn't even need to, because it was all well before the deadline. This is why I leave my parliamentary by-election predictions until the last minute. Always best to see how the campaign goes. Weird things can & do happen in parliamentary by-elections in particular as we have certainly seen in this one. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Feb 29, 2024 22:05:14 GMT
I did "alert you" by mentioning that I have changed my prediction about 5 times. But I didn't even need to, because it was all well before the deadline. This is why I leave my parliamentary by-election predictions until the last minute. Always best to see how the campaign goes. Weird things can & do happen in parliamentary by-elections in particular as we have certainly seen in this one. Vincent Hanna will be here in half an hour  |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 29, 2024 22:09:29 GMT
Competition closed.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 29, 2024 22:11:37 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30%
Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60%
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00%
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30%
Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00%
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 22.80% by uthacalthing to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 11.20%
Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90%
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90%
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.60% by uthacalthing a range of 4.20%
Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30%
David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00%
Winning Party Predictions Range
9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00%
7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80%
1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80%
1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 29, 2024 22:21:28 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30%
Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60%
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00%
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30%
Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00%
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 8.50% by johnloony to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 25.50%
Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90%
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90%
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30%
Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30%
David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00%
Winning Party Predictions Range
9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00%
7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80%
1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80%
1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA Seeing the figures like that I suddenly hate my prediction. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 29, 2024 22:26:17 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition. Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30%
Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60%
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00%
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30%
Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00%
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 8.50% by johnloony to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 25.50%
Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90%
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90%
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30%
Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30%
David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00%
Winning Party Predictions Range
9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00%
7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80%
1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80%
1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA WTFAYTA? |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 29, 2024 22:31:12 GMT
This is why I leave my parliamentary by-election predictions until the last minute. Always best to see how the campaign goes. Weird things can & do happen in parliamentary by-elections in particular as we have certainly seen in this one. Vincent Hanna will be here in half an hour 16,472 |
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 22:40:01 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30%
Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60%
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00%
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30%
Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00%
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 8.50% by johnloony to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 25.50%
Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90%
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90%
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30%
Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30%
David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00%
Winning Party Predictions Range
9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00%
7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80%
1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80%
1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA
Excellent effort in quick time, especially considering your real-life issues which you mentioned earlier and I hope are not proving too burdensome |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 29, 2024 22:41:18 GMT
Lib Dem’s 27.9% Workers Party 26.5% Labour 20.5% Reform 11.6% Conservative 9.3% Greens 2.9% OMRLP 0.7% Mark Coleman 0.2% Michael Howarth 0.2% William Howarth 0.2% David Tully 0.5% LOL!!! |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Feb 29, 2024 23:12:26 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30%
DHAA I believe that figure must have been erroneously carried over from my old prediction- my revised prediction had Otten on 1.5%. Thank you for going to this effort- can't have been easy given the number of revised predictions! |
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