Rochdale By-election on the 29th February 2024.

[uthacalthing]

Azhar Ali (Lab) 23.2% (winner) 
Mark Coleman (no description) 0.1%
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 17.8%
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 8.3%
Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 21.3%
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 22.8%
Michael Howarth (no description) 0.2%
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 1.1%
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 4.6%
Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.5%
David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.1%

Turnout 19.9%, full recount for 1st to 3rd and Green deposit

[johnloony]

Feb 26, 2024 17:44:03 GMT uthacalthing said:

Azhar Ali (Lab) 23.2% (winner) 

Turnout 19.9%

That would mean about 3,600 votes for the winning candidate - the smallest number of votes for a winning candidate in a parliamentary by-election since WW2

[manchesterman]

do you know, offhand, what the current record is johnloony ?

[No Offence Alan]

Feb 26, 2024 21:33:10 GMT manchesterman said:

do you know, offhand, what the current record is johnloony ?

I will go with Newcastle upon Tyne Central in 1976, won with 4,692 votes.

[manchesterman]

well its certainly conceivable that that could be beaten in a blanket finish..

[iainbhx]

Feb 26, 2024 17:44:03 GMT uthacalthing said:

Turnout 19.9%, full recount for 1st to 3rd and Green deposit

If there are, as has been claimed, 24k postals, the postal turnout alone will probably be in excess of 19.9%, if that is the borough total not the seat total, then that would be probably a very low ball turnout estimate. I'd say turnout will probably be somewhere between 27-32% but I prepared to have egg on my face about this clowncar by-election.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Feb 27, 2024 8:23:58 GMT iainbhx said:

Feb 26, 2024 17:44:03 GMT uthacalthing said:

Turnout 19.9%, full recount for 1st to 3rd and Green deposit

If there are, as has been claimed, 24k postals, the postal turnout alone will probably be in excess of 19.9%, if that is the borough total not the seat total, then that would be probably a very low ball turnout estimate. I'd say turnout will probably be somewhere between 27-32% but I prepared to have egg on my face about this clowncar by-election.

Manchester Central was ~18, Leeds Central was ~19. My instinct is Rochdale will be low 30s, though that's not with any money going on it. I'm wary about changing my prediction again though I think we're in for a close run thing. 

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Labour win

Azhar Ali (Lab) 24.9
Mark Coleman (no description) 4.3
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 12.9
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 10.9
Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 16.4
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 24.9
Michael Howarth (no description) 0.5
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 1.2
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 2.3
Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.8
David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.9

That's my random guess.

[Tony Otim]

Lab (disowned) 30.6
Workers Party 29.2
Reform UK 13.8
Con 9.6
LD 8.2
W. Howarth 3.4
Coleman 2.1
OMRLP 1.4
Grn (Disowned) 1.1
M Howarth 0.4
Tully 0.2

[LDCaerdydd]

Azhar Ali (Lab) 33.2
Mark Coleman (no description) 0.6
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 11
Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 8
Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 11.1
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 27.1
Michael Howarth (no description) 4
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 1
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 2.5
Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.7
David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.8

[Pete Whitehead]

WP		28.7%
Lab		24.8%
Ref		16.1%
Con		13.2%
LD		12.4%
Ind (WLH)		2.1%
Grn		1.4%
OMRLP		0.5%
ND (MC)		0.3%
Ind (DT)		0.3%
Ind (MH)		0.2%

[heslingtonian]

Labour (disowned) 34
Workers Party 26
Conservative 12
Reform UK 12
Liberal Democrats 7
Green 4
Independent (W. Howarth) 2
Independent (Coleman) 1.2
Independent (M. Howarth) 0.8
OMRLP 0.6
Independent (Tully) 0.4

[batman]

WP 30.5
Lab (disowned) 27.1
RefUK 14.2
C 11.1
LD 9.8
Green (disowned) 2.8
Coleman 1.7
Ind W.Howarth 1.6
M.Howarth 0.5
Ind Tully 0.4
OMRLP 0.3

[uthacalthing]

In tonight's prediction competition I got Belfast v Dundee bang on.

[manchesterman]

Workers Party 26
Labour (disowned) 22
Conservative 17
Reform UK 15
Liberal Democrats 10
Green (disowned) 3
Independent (Coleman) 2
Independent (W. Howarth) 1.5
OMRLP 1.5
Independent (M. Howarth) 1
Independent (Tully) 1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

All 15 entries so far have been noted down and accepted into the competition. Entries will be accepted until 10pm tonight, close of poll.

Please note: As mentioned on the living with disabilities thread, my sister is currently very poorly in hospital. This may, I stress may not will, impact on how quickly I can note down new entries, entry revisions and the final result of the competition.

DHAA

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Feb 29, 2024 7:12:41 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

All 15 entries so far have been noted down and accepted into the competition. Entries will be accepted until 10pm tonight, close of poll.

Please note: As mentioned on the living with disabilities thread, my sister is currently very poorly in hospital. This may, I stress may not will, impact on how quickly I can note down new entries, entry revisions and the final result of the competition.

DHAA

Real life is always priority over forum duties. Best wishes to your sister.

[Forfarshire Conservative]

Labour 32%
Workers Party 30%
Reform 17.5%
Conservative 11.4%
Lib Dems 4.4%
Greens 2%
OMRLP 0.7%
Mark Coleman 0.5%
Michael Howarth 0.5%
William Howarth 0.5%
David Tully 0.5%

[uthacalthing]

Will any candidate receive fewer votes than Defenestrated Fipplebox received predictions? 

[johnloony]

It's crazy that all of our predictions put all of the candidates below 35%. We're going to look silly if Labour wins with 50%, or if there is a massive vote for Galloway (like in Bradford West in 2012) - which is unlikely but possible. The low predictions for Labour and Galloway are all dependent on big shares of the vote for Reform and/or Conservative and/or Lib Dem. But Lib Dems and Reform might both flop down to 3% anyway.