neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 29, 2014 8:42:10 GMT
Has Dorries been reselected?
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 29, 2014 8:58:19 GMT
Having seen the list of 8 others, there are a number who, I suspect, who wouldn't be missed at all by the Parliamentary party :-) Any guesses for the next one to defect, if this is true. My guesses: On political grounds, Hannon On ego / personal promotion in the press, DorriesPlease please please let this be true, and let her take Bone and his unfunny jokes about his wife with her. I like Bone and his jokes and his attitude. I think he would be a good fit. Nadine is a different matter. I wonder why parents would chose that name? It is so hard and lacking in euphony. It sounds like a rather angry insect. I have a theory that the shape and sound of our names does affect the conduct an success of our lives.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Aug 29, 2014 10:33:02 GMT
Please please please let this be true, and let her take Bone and his unfunny jokes about his wife with her. Nadine is a different matter. I wonder why parents would chose that name? It is so hard and lacking in euphony. It sounds like a rather angry insect. I was thinking they might be Chuck Berry fans but the song wasn't recorded until 1963 and she was born in 1957... So they must have been readers of Nadine Gordimer. I hadn't realised it's the french form of Nadia.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2014 12:43:41 GMT
Yonder Nuttall fella, Bury North, anyone?
|
|
|
Post by dizz on Aug 30, 2014 8:47:45 GMT
It is interesting that, in the wake of this defection, Cameron & Clegg are holding terror talks this weekend.
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 30, 2014 8:55:04 GMT
It is interesting that, in the wake of this defection, Cameron & Clegg are holding terror talks this weekend. Yes they have ramped up the Terror Alert status. Classic Tory ploy when in difficulty is to focus minds on something scary that we statesman-like chaps have to deal with for you ordinary fairly ignorant chappies..........Just to show how silly it would be to change horses in midstream or mingle with those oiks down the road at Clacton.............sort of place I think some of the maids go to on their day orrff.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 30, 2014 9:30:23 GMT
Theresa May's comments yesterday that a terror attack is 'highly likely' but not 'imminent' are garbage. If one is highly likely, it's imminent. Constant vigilance, comrades!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2014 9:41:18 GMT
The BBC has profiled the following MPs as those likely to be in the frame for defecting to UKIP
THE MOGG (North Somerset, majority 4,914) Nadine Dorries (Mid Bedfordshire, majority 15,152) Phillip Hollobone (Kettering, majority 9,094) Peter Bone (Wellingborough, majority 11,787) John Baron (Basildon and Billericay, majority 12,398) Jackie Doyle-Price (Thurrock, majority 92) Philip Davies (Shipley, majority 9,944)
The unlikeliest is Mark Pritchard (The Wrekin, 9,450) as he was very quick to be pushed into the news studios to pour doubt over Carswell's decision.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2014 10:01:57 GMT
JRM and Dorries are not really in favourable enough ukip seats, neither really is Bone or Hollobone.
|
|
|
Post by froome on Aug 30, 2014 11:43:14 GMT
The BBC has profiled the following MPs as those likely to be in the frame for defecting to UKIP THE MOGG (North Somerset, majority 4,914) The Mogg represents N.E. Somerset, not North Somerset. Liam Fox is MP for the latter. There is no chance that the Mogg will defect, he is rolled out to represent the Conservatives at every opportunity in this area, and his views are far closer to Cameron's than Farage's on most issues except Europe. And as Joe says, his constituency is not UKIP friendly (and neither is North Somerset).
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 30, 2014 11:57:27 GMT
JDP is likely toast at the GE but it would be absolute curtains for her to defect.
Philip Davies is a no, but it would be interesting to see what he bets on in Clacton.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2014 12:01:29 GMT
JDP is likely toast at the GE but it would be absolute curtains for her to defect. She's been quite vocal in her criticism of Carswell on Twitter etc. Anyway Tim Aker has been in place there for a long time and he's not some numpty like the bloke in Clacton
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 30, 2014 12:11:01 GMT
Indeed. She's better off losing next year and coming back when Bernard Jenkin or one of the older male Tory MPs around there packs it in in 2020.
|
|
|
Post by Philip Davies on Aug 30, 2014 12:28:44 GMT
JDP is likely toast at the GE but it would be absolute curtains for her to defect. Philip Davies is a no, but it would be interesting to see what he bets on in Clacton. Yes you can rule me out defecting to UKIP!
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Aug 30, 2014 14:30:21 GMT
Looking at other threads about which Westminster Constituencies UKIP eith 'won' or nearly 'won' in the local elections this year or last year I noticed this comment Survation also mention that UKIP 'won' those parts of North West Cambridgeshire that voted in 2013. This article here claims that UKIP also 'won' Camborne and Redruth. It also lists seven other seats UKIP almost 'won' - Folkestone & Hythe, Lewes, Basildon & Billericay, Harwich & North Essex, Eastleigh, North Norfolk and Northampton North It also mention that UKIP did very well in those parts of South Basildon and Thurrock East that voted, although this was less than half the constituency , www.columnist.org.uk/2014/03/02/revealed-the-nineteen-constituencies-ukip-won-or-nearly-won-in-2013/We were also three points behind the Tories in Clacton, although I saw no reason to include that as a possible target since half of the party is in love with Carswell and his personal Eurosceptic vote in a GE would ruin our chances. Looking at the people mentioned as possible defectors in the newspapers as possible defectors as well and comparing it to the lists of constituencies mentioned in this forum as potentially winnable for UKIP I could see only three in common Douglas Carswell - already defected Jackie Doyle-Price - I think very unlikely to defect for the reasons Pete Whitehead gives Mark Reckless - There were no local elections in Medway this year or last year but it was in UKIP's top twenty areas in the European elections
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 30, 2014 14:38:13 GMT
Hustings for Rochester is this week (as is NW Leices - another potential I have seen mentioned)
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
|
Post by Pimpernal on Aug 31, 2014 5:24:44 GMT
There were no local elections in Medway this year or last year but it was in UKIP's top twenty areas in the European elections is that list available anywhere in a nice easy format?
|
|
|
Post by Devonian on Aug 31, 2014 8:44:32 GMT
There were no local elections in Medway this year or last year but it was in UKIP's top twenty areas in the European elections is that list available anywhere in a nice easy format? Yes, I actually got the list from this forum, from a Pete Whitehead comment in the European Elections thread UKIP Highest 20 % shares Boston | 51.6% | South Holland | 48.5% | Tendring | 48.4% | Castle Point | 47.8% | Fenland | 47.3% | Thurrock | 45.9% | Thanet | 45.9% | Forest Heath | 45.8% | Great Yarmouth | 45.2% | Basildon | 44.8% | East Lindsey | 44.2% | Havering | 43.6% | Rochford | 43.4% | Torbay | 43.2% | Swale | 43.2% | Shepway | 43.1% | Arun | 42.5% | Breckland | 42.2% | Medway | 41.7% | King's Lynn & West Norfolk | 41.6% |
Notice the third area on the list.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 31, 2014 12:43:21 GMT
Tendring was I think the highest in UKIPs first breakthrough election in 1999 and of course its been mentioned a million times that Harwich produced the best result for the Referendum party in 1997
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,304
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 31, 2014 12:47:07 GMT
Though in 1999 the breakdown was by parliamentary constituencies, wasn't it?
|
|