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Post by mattb on Mar 2, 2024 8:22:14 GMT
Do we know yet what percentage of the votes were postal votes? - one article I read suggested it was about 70% which does sound inordinately high. Suspect they meant the turnout of PVs was ~70% - which sounds about right. Not that PVs were 70% of the votes cast. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Mar 2, 2024 11:32:42 GMT
So Rochdale now has had: Cyril Smith Simon Danczuk George Galloway. What a set. This is a good place to begin my take on this By election. Starmer has publicly take the knee and apologised to the people of Rochdale for Labours inability to find them a decent candidate that they would vote for. He may be missing the point. They dont want a decent candidate. They want a candidate in their own image. Page one of a few Every constituency has some child molestors, some religious nut jobs, some bigots, some inbred morons, but there is no such thing as their fair share. Rochdale the record shows has a generous share. Obviously not all take this proclivity to a criminal extent but the friends, colleagues and family members of those who do are likely to at best be tolerant of them and at worst lean towards them. Perhaps Rochdale got not only the MP it deserved, but the MP is aspires to? In terms of the wider picture, what should we read into this? I dont think we should read very much and nothing that we did not already know, so my interest is in the extent to which far too much will be read into it, in particular by the Labour Party. This by election tells us that the UKs Muslim population to an overhelming extent will vote on matters pertaining to being Muslim over matters pertaining to being British, like cost of living, the economy, taxation, public services. They are not integrated let alone assimilated and they have no wish to be so. They will vote overwhelmingly in a sectarian manner given that as a viable option. While pundits wail that this is a new phenomenon, it is not. Much of Scotland voted on sectarian lines for half a century to suppress the Catholic menace and in return Catholics also voted on sectarian lines. Then we moved to a situation where in the Scottish Labour Party both sectarian Protestants and sectarian Catholics in adjacent towns committed to keeping the other down. Northern Ireland still exists and come to that Jews, Hindus and Sikhs vote as a block to a considerable extent. So its not new and its not unique. And it will not be eradicated by seeking to understand their concerns, it will eradicated by it being socially unacceptable, career ending and impoverishing. When dealing with white working racism this fact is understood. If you vote BNP you are trash. End of discussion, end of career. Orange Lodge? Here is your coat. Catholic wittering on about abortion? Bye now. Now, all we need to do is apply the same strictures to bigots who pray five times a day. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Mar 2, 2024 12:01:53 GMT
Within Labour, however, there will be considerable pressure to take on board the concerns of previous Labour voters who voted for Galloway. To Win them back. This is wrong both politically and morally
These ignorant bigoted voters are focused in perhaps 30 constituencies all of which ought to be safe Labour. Labour is on track to win a landslide in which the former "red wall" of white working-class seats is only the start. One of the few ways the Labour Party can lose this election is to permit a narrative that Labour is the party in which extremists feel at home.
In any case, only The Gorgeous One is a real threat as an actual winner and then only in by-elections. The only viable risk is that 2-3000 votes to some former Labour Councilor with an active local mosque might tip a seat on a split vote from Labour to someone else. Who else? Not the Tories, they will be going backwards. In Scotland, it might be a block Muslim vote for the SNP but "I can't believe it's not Respect" will not be a factor. In terms of national strategy Labour simply needs to hold its nerve and ignore this.
In terms of local strategy, it needs to take the knee to Paul Scully
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Post by batman on Mar 2, 2024 12:09:00 GMT
No, Jews Hindus & Sikhs do not vote as a bloc. There are certainly more Jewish Conservative than Labour voters, but if you look at for example the 2022 Barnet council elections it is very clear that a substantial minority can & often do vote Labour, although the two wards with the largest Jewish populations (Golders Green & Edgware) were won easily by the Tories. Sikhs are significantly more likely to vote Labour than Conservative, but in some areas Sikh Conservative voters are far from rare. Hindus were not many years ago overwhelmingly Labour, but their vote is very split now and increasingly depends on education & income (although Leicester appears to be a major exception to this) just as has traditionally been the case in the general population. In fact it is doubtful that any ethnic minority communities apart from Black Caribbeans & Black Africans do vote in anything akin to a bloc now, although anecdotally New Malden's South Korean community is very pro-Lib Dem.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 2, 2024 12:14:38 GMT
Within Labour, however, there will be considerable pressure to take on board the concerns of previous Labour voters who voted for Galloway. To Win them back. This is wrong both politically and morally These ignorant bigoted voters are focused in perhaps 30 constituencies all of which ought to be safe Labour. Labour is on track to win a landslide in which the former "red wall" of white working-class seats is only the start. One of the few ways the Labour Party can lose this election is to permit a narrative that Labour is the party in which extremists feel at home. In any case, only The Gorgeous One is a real threat as an actual winner and then only in by-elections. The only viable risk is that 2-3000 votes to some former Labour Councilor with an active local mosque might tip a seat on a split vote from Labour to someone else. Who else? Not the Tories, they will be going backwards. In Scotland, it might be a block Muslim vote for the SNP but "I can't believe it's not Respect" will not be a factor. In terms of national strategy Labour simply needs to hold its nerve and ignore this. In terms of local strategy, it needs to take the knee to Paul Scully I would have 'liked' this were it not for your obsession with knee-taking. But at the heart of it Labour has little to lose overall by waving goodbye to this particular group. The bigger threat to the party from doing so would be from noisy fellow travellers. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 2, 2024 12:20:37 GMT
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Mar 2, 2024 12:43:03 GMT
One possibility is that he’s bullshitting, but the other possibility is that he’s just being a bit clumsy in expressing his words and calculations. If the raw figures are correct (13,460 PVs and 12,335 GG votes), then he might think that it is interesting that 12,335 is 91% of 13,460, but he might not even be intending to say that they are the same 12,335. The first time I stood as a candidate (for the Chocolate Fudge Cake Party in Fairfield ward, Croydon, in 1994) there were 175 postal votes out of the turnout of 4,998. I got 175 votes. It’s interesting that it’s the same number. |
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 2, 2024 12:43:41 GMT
Clearly an idiot, or trying to stir - he seems to assume each and every Galloway vote was a postal vote. |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 2, 2024 12:52:26 GMT
What does your last sentence mean? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 2, 2024 12:55:11 GMT
Clearly an idiot, or trying to stir - he seems to assume each and every Galloway vote was a postal vote. At election counts, votes should be tallied at ballot box level, and summated (like in the USA) to shut down this kind of nonsense. And, of course, give us amateur psephologists a lot more info! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 2, 2024 13:15:17 GMT
Clearly an idiot, or trying to stir - he seems to assume each and every Galloway vote was a postal vote. At election counts, votes should be tallied at ballot box level, and summated (like in the USA) to shut down this kind of nonsense. And, of course, give us amateur psephologists a lot more info! The Greater London Returning Officer has given strict instructions to local returning officers that they may not count the GLA ballots at any level other than the entire borough. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 2, 2024 16:21:47 GMT
No, Jews Hindus & Sikhs do not vote as a bloc. There are certainly more Jewish Conservative than Labour voters, but if you look at for example the 2022 Barnet council elections it is very clear that a substantial minority can & often do vote Labour, although the two wards with the largest Jewish populations (Golders Green & Edgware) were won easily by the Tories. Sikhs are significantly more likely to vote Labour than Conservative, but in some areas Sikh Conservative voters are far from rare. Hindus were not many years ago overwhelmingly Labour, but their vote is very split now and increasingly depends on education & income (although Leicester appears to be a major exception to this) just as has traditionally been the case in the general population. In fact it is doubtful that any ethnic minority communities apart from Black Caribbeans & Black Africans do vote in anything akin to a bloc now, although anecdotally New Malden's South Korean community is very pro-Lib Dem. Did Jewish voters disproportionately support the Tories back in the 1960s and 1970s? |
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Post by batman on Mar 2, 2024 16:32:25 GMT
in the 1970s yes, it would be been rather less in the early 60s. Until very recently there were more Labour than Conservative Jewish MPs, and at the next election there almost certainly will be once again. However you have to go back a few generations before you find more British Jews voting Labour than Conservative, in general (it would have been a close thing in 1997 & 2001). At present there is only one Jewish MP in London, though that too is extremely likely to increase later this year.
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 2, 2024 16:41:23 GMT
in the 1970s yes, it would be been rather less in the early 60s. Until very recently there were more Labour than Conservative Jewish MPs, and at the next election there almost certainly will be once again. However you have to go back a few generations before you find more British Jews voting Labour than Conservative, in general (it would have been a close thing in 1997 & 2001). At present there is only one Jewish MP in London, though that too is extremely likely to increase later this year. I am surprised that the pro-Appeasement policies of the 1930s did not have a longer -term effect on the voting behaviour of the Jewish community - together with the open anti-semiticism of quite a few prominent Tories. |
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Post by Sg1 on Mar 2, 2024 16:56:01 GMT
Do we know yet what percentage of the votes were postal votes? - one article I read suggested it was about 70% which does sound inordinately high. I suspect if it was that high that Labour would have polled better, then again, that might also confirm the theory, which I don't believe at this stage, that Galloway was always bound to win. |
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Post by jakegb on Mar 2, 2024 16:58:19 GMT
Within Labour, however, there will be considerable pressure to take on board the concerns of previous Labour voters who voted for Galloway. To Win them back. This is wrong both politically and morally These ignorant bigoted voters are focused in perhaps 30 constituencies all of which ought to be safe Labour. Labour is on track to win a landslide in which the former "red wall" of white working-class seats is only the start. One of the few ways the Labour Party can lose this election is to permit a narrative that Labour is the party in which extremists feel at home. In any case, only The Gorgeous One is a real threat as an actual winner and then only in by-elections. The only viable risk is that 2-3000 votes to some former Labour Councilor with an active local mosque might tip a seat on a split vote from Labour to someone else. Who else? Not the Tories, they will be going backwards. In Scotland, it might be a block Muslim vote for the SNP but "I can't believe it's not Respect" will not be a factor. In terms of national strategy Labour simply needs to hold its nerve and ignore this. In terms of local strategy, it needs to take the knee to Paul Scully You make some good points there; if Labour were to call out some of the extremist rhetoric seen in Rochdale by Galloway's supporters (and indeed Ali), then this can only help their relations with red wall voters. Yes, a few seats may be lost in place like E London and Birmingham; but the 50 or so potential gains in seats such as Crewe, Greater Grimsby and Don Valley (to name a few) will be well worth it for them. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2024 17:19:40 GMT
Galloway being Galloway
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Post by batman on Mar 2, 2024 17:37:53 GMT
let's be quite clear, it is racist to say that Rishi Sunak is not "a proper Englishman".
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dundas
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Post by dundas on Mar 2, 2024 17:45:30 GMT
So Rochdale now has had: Cyril Smith Simon Danczuk George Galloway. What a set. This is a good place to begin my take on this By election. Starmer has publicly take the knee and apologised to the people of Rochdale for Labours inability to find them a decent candidate that they would vote for. He may be missing the point. They dont want a decent candidate. They want a candidate in their own image. Page one of a few Every constituency has some child molestors, some religious nut jobs, some bigots, some inbred morons, but there is no such thing as their fair share. Rochdale the record shows has a generous share. Obviously not all take this proclivity to a criminal extent but the friends, colleagues and family members of those who do are likely to at best be tolerant of them and at worst lean towards them. Perhaps Rochdale got not only the MP it deserved, but the MP is aspires to? In terms of the wider picture, what should we read into this? I dont think we should read very much and nothing that we did not already know, so my interest is in the extent to which far too much will be read into it, in particular by the Labour Party. This by election tells us that the UKs Muslim population to an overhelming extent will vote on matters pertaining to being Muslim over matters pertaining to being British, like cost of living, the economy, taxation, public services. They are not integrated let alone assimilated and they have no wish to be so. They will vote overwhelmingly in a sectarian manner given that as a viable option. While pundits wail that this is a new phenomenon, it is not. Much of Scotland voted on sectarian lines for half a century to suppress the Catholic menace and in return Catholics also voted on sectarian lines. Then we moved to a situation where in the Scottish Labour Party both sectarian Protestants and sectarian Catholics in adjacent towns committed to keeping the other down. Northern Ireland still exists and come to that Jews, Hindus and Sikhs vote as a block to a considerable extent. So its not new and its not unique. And it will not be eradicated by seeking to understand their concerns, it will eradicated by it being socially unacceptable, career ending and impoverishing. When dealing with white working racism this fact is understood. If you vote BNP you are trash. End of discussion, end of career. Orange Lodge? Here is your coat. Catholic wittering on about abortion? Bye now. Now, all we need to do is apply the same strictures to bigots who pray five times a day. A pro life Catholic just won an election. Thanks for the offer, but I won't take that as a sign to stop wittering on. We also won't be needing to elect a new people of Rochdale just because they chose a candidate who won't cosy up to some imaginary consensus that doesn't survive contact with reality. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 2, 2024 17:54:03 GMT
let's be quite clear, it is racist to say that Rishi Sunak is not "a proper Englishman". This is the point. He's a self-professed anti-racist who is hyper sensitive to any criticism of Islam, then he comes out with that. |
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