right
Conservative
Posts: 18,815
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Post by right on Mar 1, 2024 17:00:35 GMT
Wut?
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Post by jimboo2017 on Mar 1, 2024 17:01:39 GMT
I think the lesson from this may be that Israeli genocide in Gaza has rather wider salience than just muslims. Perhaps the ignorance of those who all it genocide has a lot to do with it. Hamas are a bunch of psychopaths, these are the same people who said women were not raped and burnt alive, they are the wrong side of history. The film is available via the Israeli Embassy.
The baby rape myth, first responders found the babies dead having bled from between the legs, they reported it as rape, it was baby boys castrated and girls fistulated with knifes. Now the cowards that are hamas hide behind their own women and children rather than die on the battlefield. Israel has pledged they will kill all Hamas the Egypt is ensuring none escape from Gaza
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Post by jimboo2017 on Mar 1, 2024 17:03:30 GMT
Alleged genocide. If the Hamas figures for the number of Palestinian casualties and the Israeli figures for the number of Hamas militants killed are both in the right ballpark then the proportion of civilian casualties to combatant casualties is better than the average for urban warfare. Yes. About 120 people per day. Hardly the stuff of genocide or ethnic cleansing, as claimed by cretins like michaelarden . Or perhaps the IDF aren't very good at it or don't understand what they are supposed to do? Just above Yemen, not sure of current Nigerian and Darfur |
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 1, 2024 17:09:09 GMT
Having checked in with the one person I know that lives in this constituency... he voted for Tully, but he is vey disappointed Galloway got in. He is normally a Tory voter, never voted Labour, but on the moderate wing of the party. I very much suspect that the number of potential Tully to Galloway switchers will be very small. I suspect you're right. But what if Galloway breaks form and runs on a strongly localist Lib be Dem type campaign? I don't think that would be possible given both his personality and his politics, even if it would be a good strategy. Plus I suspect quite a few voters in the non-Muslim areas will rally round Labour to get rid of him come the GE. He has 12,000 votes, but will need nearer 18k to win (possibly) so the question is has he maxed out his potential vote? The answer will depend on turnout, my hunch is that the turnout in central Rochdale will have been much higher than elsewhere, leading me to conclude that he will struggle to get many more votes. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 1, 2024 17:21:17 GMT
Would Tully real want to associate himself with Galloway? It would likely alienate much of his support which is unlikely to run very deep anyway! Wouldn't be so sure. Galloway's reputation is something that political geeks may obsess about but for many he is an anti establishment campaigner standing up for the little guy against authority - the sort of people who voted for Tully and the Lib Dems previously. The Labour council is the establishment and they'll be plenty of votes against them (and for the football club for example) in local elections. yes, but Almost every Tully voter likely made a conscious decision to vote for someone besides Galloway and Ali before setting on Tully. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 1, 2024 17:36:10 GMT
I probably won't bother doing one of my maps for this one, but I think the only seat Labour would hold based on this swing would be Liverpool Walton Oh go on. Humour us! Oh alright then.. IJABOF   | WP | 422 | | Con | 139 | | SNP | 48 | | LD | 16 | | Ind | 3 | | Lab | 1 | | PC | 1 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | NI | 18 |
| | | Majority | 194 |
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Post by willpower3 on Mar 1, 2024 17:40:06 GMT
Oh alright then.. IJABOF | WP | 422 | | Con | 139 | | SNP | 48 | | LD | 16 | | Ind | 3 | | Lab | 1 | | PC | 1 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | NI | 18 |
| | | Majority | 194 |
What's the most outlandish WPB seat in terms of the idea of them winning it? |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,278
Member is Online
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Post by WJ on Mar 1, 2024 17:41:57 GMT
Oh alright then.. IJABOF | WP | 422 | | Con | 139 | | SNP | 48 | | LD | 16 | | Ind | 3 | | Lab | 1 | | PC | 1 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | NI | 18 |
| | | Majority | 194 |
Stunning. Workers of The Blue Wall unite! You have nothing to lose but your chains! |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Mar 1, 2024 17:43:42 GMT
I had to hunt for the Labour seat, didn't see it for ages!
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 1, 2024 17:47:12 GMT
Oh alright then.. IJABOF | WP | 422 | | Con | 139 | | SNP | 48 | | LD | 16 | | Ind | 3 | | Lab | 1 | | PC | 1 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | NI | 18 |
| | | Majority | 194 |
What's the most outlandish WPB seat in terms of the idea of them winning it? C Devon struck my eye |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 1, 2024 17:47:14 GMT
The biggest net swing from Labour to Conservative in any parliamentary by-election since Hartlepool in 2021. The Labour to Conservative swing is irrelevant here-the swing that matters was from Labour to Workers' Party, 41.8%. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 1, 2024 17:55:14 GMT
What's the most outlandish WPB seat in terms of the idea of them winning it? C Devon struck my eye St Austell and Newquay has the lowest proportion of Muslim residents of any (England/Wales) constituency - though in fairness probably fairly ripe territory for populists. Rather sedate North Norfolk is perhaps even more surprising... |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 1, 2024 18:12:16 GMT
I had to hunt for the Labour seat, didn't see it for ages! Ah, Liverpool ... |
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Post by johnloony on Mar 1, 2024 18:35:17 GMT
The biggest net swing from Labour to Conservative in any parliamentary by-election since Hartlepool in 2021. The Labour to Conservative swing is irrelevant here-the swing that matters was from Labour to Workers' Party, 41.8%. A pedant would point out that it is not possible to calculate a swing from Labour to WPB because there was no WPB candidate in 2019. A different type of pedant would point out that it is not possible to calculate a swing from Labour to WPB because a “swing” is only ever between Conservative and Labour. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 1, 2024 19:32:19 GMT
How come Dominic Grieve is regaining Beaconsfield?
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 1, 2024 19:33:40 GMT
Oh alright then.. IJABOF | WP | 422 | | Con | 139 | | SNP | 48 | | LD | 16 | | Ind | 3 | | Lab | 1 | | PC | 1 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | NI | 18 |
| | | Majority | 194 |
What's the most outlandish WPB seat in terms of the idea of them winning it? Tewksbury? NE Cambs? Edinburgh W? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,806 
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Post by john07 on Mar 1, 2024 20:27:21 GMT
Having checked in with the one person I know that lives in this constituency... he voted for Tully, but he is vey disappointed Galloway got in. He is normally a Tory voter, never voted Labour, but on the moderate wing of the party. I very much suspect that the number of potential Tully to Galloway switchers will be very small. I suspect you're right. But what if Galloway breaks form and runs on a strongly localist Lib be Dem type campaign? Any chance of a translation out of gibberish? |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 1, 2024 21:09:51 GMT
Rochdale By -Election: A three way seat, methinks. One of the most interesting by-election in years due to the absolutely chaos of it all! - Labour candidate is still officially the candidate despite party abandoning him after news of his remarks on Jewish figures and Palestine. Could win still as Rochdale heavily Labour. - George Galloway again successfully courts the local Muslim vote to get him in as many hold strong views on the Isreal-Palestine and feel that Labour do not represent them. I'm not a fan of him at all. He last won a by election in spectacular fashion in 2012 under the same set of circumstances but was trounced at the 2015 GE - Reform UK Simon Danzuk (Former Labour MP) just clinches it. But only just. Has focused on immigration etc but hasn't won the vital support from the large Muslim community, so this won't help him much. Tiny majority for whoever the winner is. Nomination for "2024 post that didn't age well" in the VUKFPOTY awards? My thoughts entirely when I read it. Spectacularly portentous, inept and obviously wrong. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,140
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Post by Foggy on Mar 2, 2024 0:38:47 GMT
By the way, the football club ceases to be an issue today - they've been taken over by the owners of MVV Maastricht (of course). So Rochdalians can safely go back to not watching their football club. Cor, 60% for Leave and they still can't escape Maastricht! I see the borough still seems to be twinned with Bielefeld too. Would've been a lot funnier if Arminia had taken over the 'Dale and then we could all start to pretend that it doesn't exist. |
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Post by London Lad on Mar 2, 2024 7:53:38 GMT
Do we know yet what percentage of the votes were postal votes? - one article I read suggested it was about 70% which does sound inordinately high.
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