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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 16, 2024 12:29:44 GMT
Big focus on Damien moving back from Lewisham, & an overall ‘not one of us’ in a socially conservative seat. This is not Bristol, whatever the geography might imply. Presumably that he's "metropolitan". I note that he's gay (and married). The days must be long gone when that was used even as a doorstep nudge? I fear not. |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Feb 16, 2024 12:46:25 GMT
Anyone here can factor a guess as why the win was smaller than Wellingborough? Kingswood was an MP resigning over a matter of principle, Wellingborough was an MP recalled who didn't want to resign but resigned because Parliament voted him out. By-elections held under a cloud are always worse than resignation / death by-elections. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2024 12:55:08 GMT
Wow almost 11% for Reform Wow a saved deposit for the Greens - a bit of a ‘Bristol effect’ here? As already pointed out, Kingswood is very much not Bristol (and the locals will soon put you right on that if you presume otherwise) But even so, I'm sure that the Greens having a plentiful supply of activists just nearby didn't do them any harm here. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 16, 2024 13:20:38 GMT
The Wellingborough result was fantastic for Labour and abysmal for the Conservatives, and I assume even better than Labour expected
I’m surprised that Kingswood wasn’t better for Labour, although obviously is was still good.
Also Reform UK will probably be pleased to get over 10% in both the contests, but if they are getting 10& 13% in these sort of contests it surely must be unlikely that they are actually on the 10% nationwide that they are now getting in the polls.
Swings in Con/ Lab contests over the last 2 years
Wellingborough 28.6%
Tamworth 23.9%
Selby and Ainsty 23.8%
Mid Bedfordshire 20.6%
Kingswood 16.4%
Wakefield 12.8%
Uxbridge and South Ruislip 6.7%
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 16, 2024 13:26:44 GMT
The stand out there is the relatively small swing in Wakefield, especially given the circumstances of the vacancy.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 16, 2024 13:38:27 GMT
It did seem to be an attempt to redefine 'how to piss your voters off'. & it succeeded. Mrs Bone signed the candidate’s nomination papers. Well, natch. Get the little tart down the road to Westminster and out of her hair and sight. Where she should find a younger squeeze fairly quickly. Didn't work of course but will have severely damaged her chances of any other seat once the party is under proper management again. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Feb 16, 2024 14:26:13 GMT
The stand out there is the relatively small swing in Wakefield, especially given the circumstances of the vacancy. Before Truss, therefore before the 20 point poll lead |
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 16, 2024 14:32:00 GMT
Labour certainly expected a comfortable win in Wellingborough, but I'm pretty sure that as Andrew says probably not as big as that.
I don't think for one moment that Reform can get 10% nationwide in a general election, but they will very likely have serious nuisance value in certain seats. They may poll very strongly in a few seats in Lincolnshire & parts of East Anglia.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Feb 16, 2024 14:34:02 GMT
The stand out there is the relatively small swing in Wakefield, especially given the circumstances of the vacancy. There isn't a great deal of love for Labour in Wakefield district generally, the council is clapped out... most recent local elections have shown their vote tallies remain fairly constant, a lack of organised opposition is to their aid. They desperately need some new blood - rather than recycling the same candidates over and over. Lightwood was chosen ahead of some local candidates who were blocked... so the campaign wasn't particularly enthusiastic from the locals. Tories selected a sitting councillor who was previously group leader, and is again... I think it was at the lower end of reasonable expectations for them. And upper end for Tories. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Feb 16, 2024 15:47:38 GMT
The Tories tied to make the by-election about their opposition to building in the green belt and they got thrashed. I am of course delighted. There are lessons to be drawn here.
For Tories, NIMBYism wont save you in this election and it will ensure your extinction in a generation.
For Labour, building homes in Tory wards does not stop you winning
For Lib Dems. You need to be the party of Nimbys.
I am also happy to see the back of the previous MP.
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Post by evergreenadam on Feb 16, 2024 15:54:05 GMT
The Wellingborough result was fantastic for Labour and abysmal for the Conservatives, and I assume even better than Labour expected I’m surprised that Kingswood wasn’t better for Labour, although obviously is was still good. Also Reform UK will probably be pleased to get over 10% in both the contests, but if they are getting 10& 13% in these sort of contests it surely must be unlikely that they are actually on the 10% nationwide that they are now getting in the polls. Swings in Con/ Lab contests over the last 2 years Wellingborough 28.6%Tamworth 23.9% Selby and Ainsty 23.8% Mid Bedfordshire 20.6% Kingswood 16.4%Wakefield 12.8% Uxbridge and South Ruislip 6.7% There are certainly some places that are stubborn to switch to Labour even when the national tide is going that way. Uxbridge twice for example. It reminds me of the problem that Labour was perceived to have in Pennine mill towns in the early 1990s. If those results are anything to go by, the swing to Labour will be higher outside the traditional list of marginals. This was also the case in 1997 and produced so many unexpected Tory defeats. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 16, 2024 16:01:40 GMT
The Wellingborough result was fantastic for Labour and abysmal for the Conservatives, and I assume even better than Labour expected I’m surprised that Kingswood wasn’t better for Labour, although obviously is was still good. Also Reform UK will probably be pleased to get over 10% in both the contests, but if they are getting 10& 13% in these sort of contests it surely must be unlikely that they are actually on the 10% nationwide that they are now getting in the polls. Swings in Con/ Lab contests over the last 2 years Wellingborough 28.6%Tamworth 23.9% Selby and Ainsty 23.8% Mid Bedfordshire 20.6% Kingswood 16.4%Wakefield 12.8% Uxbridge and South Ruislip 6.7% There are certainly some places that are stubborn to switch to Labour even when the national tide is going that way. Uxbridge twice for example. It reminds me of the problem that Labour was perceived to have in Pennine mill towns in the early 1990s. If those results are anything to go by, the swing to Labour will be higher outside the traditional list of marginals. This was also the case in 1997 and produced so many unexpected Tory defeats. Uxbridge 3 times in fact. Labour should really have won it in a 1972 by-election but picked Manuela Sykes, a former Liberal parliamentary candidate who by all accounts was a spectacularly bad candidate |
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Post by uthacalthing on Feb 16, 2024 16:14:41 GMT
Also Reform UK will probably be pleased to get over 10% in both the contests, but if they are getting 10& 13% in these sort of contests it surely must be unlikely that they are actually on the 10% nationwide that they are now getting in the polls. GB News were rejoicing that Reform had broken through and now had real votes that matched their polling in contrast to previously when they underperformed their polling I wholly agree with you. There are a host of reasons why these two Reform results will not be replicated nationally. quality of candidates input of resources absence of protest vote absence of media attention squeeze. turnout I will suggest right now that Reform will lose their deposits in these two seats at the GE |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 16, 2024 18:00:43 GMT
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Feb 16, 2024 18:13:04 GMT
Wow a saved deposit for the Greens - a bit of a ‘Bristol effect’ here? As already pointed out, Kingswood is very much not Bristol (and the locals will soon put you right on that if you presume otherwise) I wonder if there's any local opposition to one of Kingswood's two main successor seats being called "Bristol North East" then? |
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dundas
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Post by dundas on Feb 16, 2024 18:55:43 GMT
Presumably that he's "metropolitan". I note that he's gay (and married). The days must be long gone when that was used even as a doorstep nudge? I fear not. We've literally just completed a by-election centred around Peter Bone's genitals so I'd say not. |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Feb 16, 2024 19:26:26 GMT
We've literally just completed a by-election centred around Peter Bone's genitals so I'd say not. Not sure about that conclusion. Looking at the Wellingborough result, personal circumstances played a large part in the end result. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Feb 16, 2024 19:56:44 GMT
Anyone here can factor a guess as why the win was smaller than Wellingborough? Kingswood was an MP resigning over a matter of principle, Wellingborough was an MP recalled who didn't want to resign but resigned because Parliament voted him out. By-elections held under a cloud are always worse than resignation / death by-elections. The best example of that was Austin Mitchell holding the very marginal Grimsby in a by-election after the death of Anthony Crosland. The same night, the Conservatives gained the safe Labour seat of Ashfield after David Marquand jumped ship to go to Brussels. Having an MP disqualified is always likely to be punished by the electorate. A principled resignation will be somewhere in the middle. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 16, 2024 20:31:39 GMT
Also Reform UK will probably be pleased to get over 10% in both the contests, but if they are getting 10& 13% in these sort of contests it surely must be unlikely that they are actually on the 10% nationwide that they are now getting in the polls. GB News were rejoicing that Reform had broken through and now had real votes that matched their polling in contrast to previously when they underperformed their polling I wholly agree with you. There are a host of reasons why these two Reform results will not be replicated nationally. quality of candidates input of resources absence of protest vote absence of media attention squeeze. turnout I will suggest right now that Reform will lose their deposits in these two seats at the GE No one will lose any deposits in Kingswood because at the coming general election that seat will cease to exist. As for Wellingborough, there is at least an outside chance of Reform UK saving their deposit; it has demographics Reform UK appeals to well. |
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 16, 2024 21:12:11 GMT
Kingswood was an MP resigning over a matter of principle, Wellingborough was an MP recalled who didn't want to resign but resigned because Parliament voted him out. By-elections held under a cloud are always worse than resignation / death by-elections. The best example of that was Austin Mitchell holding the very marginal Grimsby in a by-election after the death of Anthony Crosland. The same night, the Conservatives gained the safe Labour seat after David Marquand jumped ship to go to Brussels. Having an MP disqualified is always likely to be punished by the electorate. A principled resignation will be somewhere in the middle. A principled resignation about climate change and net zero might also have boosted the Green Party. |
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