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Post by markgoodair on Jan 5, 2024 17:53:27 GMT
Another unwanted by-election for the Conservatives.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 5, 2024 17:55:00 GMT
Skidmore's statement: resigning the Conservative whip and resigning as an MP "as soon as possible".
Assuming this actually happens (same day as Wellingborough?) will Damian Egan, already selected for Bristol North East, which takes a large part of the territory, be Labour's candidate?
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jan 5, 2024 18:01:03 GMT
Well, good luck to Mr Skidmore in his soon to be new role as a too well paid green lobbyist.
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Post by Wisconsin on Jan 5, 2024 18:03:37 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Jan 5, 2024 18:04:50 GMT
Skidmore's statement: resigning the Conservative whip and resigning as an MP "as soon as possible". Assuming this actually happens (same day as Wellingborough?) will Damian Egan, already selected for Bristol North East, which takes a large part of the territory, be Labour's candidate? That would be a mistake in my view. This is a great chance, as with Selby, to establish a Labour incumbent for Somerset North East and Hanham. |
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Max
Labour
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Post by Max on Jan 5, 2024 18:07:04 GMT
Surely also of interest for the Labour candidate for the new NE Somerset & Hanham seat. It’s not selected yet, but Dan Norris, the former Wansdyke MP and Mayor for the West of England is rumoured to want to go for it.
Could be a fascinating selection!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 5, 2024 18:09:27 GMT
Assuming this happens, it gives the two main parties a bit of a headache over candidate selection. Kingswood is effectively abolished by the boundary changes. 47.3% of it goes to North East Somerset and Hanham, which is likely to be the seat fought by Jacob Rees-Mogg (55.4% of the new seat comes from North East Somerset, by far the largest element). Jacob Rees-Mogg is obviously not going to be the candidate at the byelection.
The next largest section, 35.8%, goes to the new Bristol North East constituency. Labour has a candidate there, but it's the current Mayor of Lewisham Damian Egan. He could resign as Mayor and stand in this byelection but that would be a risky strategy.
There are two smaller elements. 16.5% goes to Filton and Bradley Stoke, where the Conservatives also have a sitting MP and there is a Labour candidate in place (Claire Hazelgrove, who introduced Keir Starmer at his speech yesterday), but it is a very small part of the new seat. A small element, 0.5%, goes to Thornbury and Yate.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 5, 2024 18:34:54 GMT
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Post by Wisconsin on Jan 5, 2024 18:38:45 GMT
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 5, 2024 18:43:39 GMT
Assuming this happens, it gives the two main parties a bit of a headache over candidate selection. Kingswood is effectively abolished by the boundary changes. 47.3% of it goes to North East Somerset and Hanham, which is likely to be the seat fought by Jacob Rees-Mogg (55.4% of the new seat comes from North East Somerset, by far the largest element). Jacob Rees-Mogg is obviously not going to be the candidate at the byelection. The next largest section, 35.8%, goes to the new Bristol North East constituency. Labour has a candidate there, but it's the current Mayor of Lewisham Damian Egan. He could resign as Mayor and stand in this byelection but that would be a risky strategy. There are two smaller elements. 16.5% goes to Filton and Bradley Stoke, where the Conservatives also have a sitting MP and there is a Labour candidate in place (Claire Hazelgrove, who introduced Keir Starmer at his speech yesterday), but it is a very small part of the new seat. A small element, 0.5%, goes to Thornbury and Yate. Rather than suffer these selection headaches, I wonder if this'll be the trigger for a May general election after all? |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jan 5, 2024 18:46:11 GMT
He's a decent historian. I've read a number of his books, Tudor specialist.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 5, 2024 18:46:42 GMT
married into the aristocracy?  ? The grandson of a baronet? FFS, my bulldog is the grandson of a Crufts final six. Maybe I married into the aristocracy. Who would bother to know? |
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Post by batman on Jan 5, 2024 19:25:15 GMT
I've edited that Wiki entry in the light of the latest news |
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Post by batman on Jan 5, 2024 19:27:15 GMT
Assuming this happens, it gives the two main parties a bit of a headache over candidate selection. Kingswood is effectively abolished by the boundary changes. 47.3% of it goes to North East Somerset and Hanham, which is likely to be the seat fought by Jacob Rees-Mogg (55.4% of the new seat comes from North East Somerset, by far the largest element). Jacob Rees-Mogg is obviously not going to be the candidate at the byelection. The next largest section, 35.8%, goes to the new Bristol North East constituency. Labour has a candidate there, but it's the current Mayor of Lewisham Damian Egan. He could resign as Mayor and stand in this byelection but that would be a risky strategy. There are two smaller elements. 16.5% goes to Filton and Bradley Stoke, where the Conservatives also have a sitting MP and there is a Labour candidate in place (Claire Hazelgrove, who introduced Keir Starmer at his speech yesterday), but it is a very small part of the new seat. A small element, 0.5%, goes to Thornbury and Yate. the headache is almost all belonging to the Conservatives. The chances of the Tories holding Kingswood in a by-election are extremely slim, indeed I'd say they're close to non-existent, and Egan would be taking minimal risk in resigning the Mayoralty of Lewisham. Nor would Labour fear a Mayoral by-election in the borough. Unless you mean it could be awkward for Egan to resign as Mayor BEFORE he goes for selection in Kingswood, in which case yes there would be a bit of a headache for him. For Labour in general, not so much I think. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jan 5, 2024 19:29:12 GMT
married into the aristocracy? ? The grandson of a baronet? FFS, my bulldog is the grandson of a Crufts final six. Maybe I married into the aristocracy. Who would bother to know? Only if you married your bulldog... |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 5, 2024 20:30:17 GMT
Is the by election taking place under the new or old boundaries?
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Post by Wisconsin on Jan 5, 2024 20:31:34 GMT
Is the by election taking place under the new or old boundaries? Old |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jan 5, 2024 20:44:11 GMT
Is the by election taking place under the new or old boundaries? It is impossible for a by election to take place on "new Boundaries", if it did it would not be a by election. Some parts of the former MPs consituency would now not have an MP Soem parts of the New MPs constituecny woudl overlap the constituency of a still sitting MP |
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Post by edgbaston on Jan 5, 2024 20:53:32 GMT
Is the by election taking place under the new or old boundaries? It is impossible for a by election to take place on "new Boundaries", if it did it would not be a by election. Some parts of the former MPs consituency would now not have an MP Soem parts of the New MPs constituecny woudl overlap the constituency of a still sitting MP In the US they use the new district boundaries for special elections in some states, creating the situation you describe. In California they have a state senate with staggered 4 year terms, leaving millions of voters unrepresented for 2 years while they ‘catch up’. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jan 5, 2024 21:18:41 GMT
It is impossible for a by election to take place on "new Boundaries", if it did it would not be a by election. Some parts of the former MPs consituency would now not have an MP Soem parts of the New MPs constituecny woudl overlap the constituency of a still sitting MP In the US they use the new district boundaries for special elections in some states, creating the situation you describe. In California they have a state senate with staggered 4 year terms, leaving millions of voters unrepresented for 2 years while they ‘catch up’. I distrust the US enough as it is without hearing this. |
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