Local Council By-elections 18th January 2024

[Tony Otim]

A very London flavour this week:

HACKNEY LBC; Cazenove (Lab elected mayor)
Candidates:
MICNER, Tamara (Green)
PASCAL, Laura (Labour)
RAVAL, Dave (Liberal Democrat)
SHARER, Ian (Conservative)

2022: Lab 1724, 1709, 1582; LD 1471, 1233, 1121; Grn 463, 433, 277; Con 251; TUSC 81
2018: Lab 2148, 2078, 1973; LD 1733, 1694, 1620; Grn 441, 356, 228; Con 204, 164, 125; Ind 80
2014: LD 1731, 1715, 1709; Lab 1688, 1602, 1593; Grn 744, 580, 538; Con 209, 189, 150

Ian Sharer (Con) was the top Lib Dem candidate last time having been LD councillor for the ward 2014-18 (and since 2002 on previous boundaries) and failed to hold his seat in 2018, whilst Laura Pascal stood for Labour in Springfield and Dave Raval for the Lib Dems in Hackney Central in 2022.

Current Council: Lab 49; Con 5; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



RICHMOND UPON THAMES LBC; Hampton North (Con died)
Candidates:
BISHOP, Carey Anne Leuw (Liberal Democrat)
COLEMAN, Danielle Anne Cornelia (Green)
CULLEN, Sam (Labour)
MAJUMDAR, Nupur (Conservative)

2022: LD 1654, 1560; Con 1175, 1117, 983; Grn 1044; Ind 678; Lab 412, 337, 314

Nupur Majumdar was the third Conservative candidate here in 2022. The independent last time was the sitting cllr elected as LD in 2018. Sam Cullen stood for Labour in North Richmond last time out.


RICHMOND UPON THAMES LBC; Teddington (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
BAKER, Richard Scott (Liberal Democrat)
FOSTER, Elizabeth (Conservative)
KERR-SHEPPARD, Chantal Lyn (Green)
STOCKFORD, Dominic Francis (Independent)
THOMSON, James Dylan (Labour)

2022: LD 2592, 2587, 2502; Con 840, 824, 798; Lab 445, 429, 353

Elizabeth Foster contested the ward for the Conservatives on previous boundaries in 2014 and 2018.
EDIT: and as pointed out below Richard Baker was LD councillor for the ward on previous boundaries from 2018-2022.

Current Council: LD 47; Grn 5; 2 vacancies (meaning the Conservatives need to win one of the two vacancies to maintain a presence on the council).



SHEFFIELD MBC; Stannington (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
BRAGG, Chris (Green)
DAGNALL, Lewis William (Labour)
RODGERS, Rod (Liberal)
SAPWELL, Will (Liberal Democrat)
WOOLLARD, Ben (Conservative)

2023: LD 2783; Lab 1247; Con 706; Grn 498; TUSC 80
2022: LD 2005; Lab 1559; Grn 797; Con 775; Ind 190; UKIP 122
2021: LD 1900; Lab 1737; Con 1486; Grn 710; UKIP 165
2019: LD 2367; Lab 904; Grn 740; UKIP 675; Con 435
2018: LD 2528; Lab 1222; Con 898; Grn 573
2016: LD  2665, 2524, 2332; Lab 1446, 1434, 1281; UKIP 1047; Grn 500, 394, 338; Con 351, 345, 249; TUSC 117

Ben Woollard stood here for the Conservatives last May and in 2022. Last May, Chris Bragg (Grn) stood in Woodhouse, Lewis Dagnall (Lab) in Broomhill & Sharrow Vale and Will Sapwell (LD) in Hillsborough. I think Rod Rodgers becomes the first Liberal Party candidate in Sheffield for over 20 years.

Current Council: Lab 31; LD 28; Grn 14; Sheffield Comm Cllrs 8; Con 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



WANDSWORTH LBC; Tooting Broadway (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
HAREN, Thillainathan (Liberal Democrats)
HUMBERSTONE, Nick (Green)
JACOBSSON, Otto (Conservative)
LAWLESS, Sean (Labour)

2022: Lab 2773, 2762, 2339; Con 849,768, 754; Grn 680; LD 277, 272, 195

In 2022, Thillainathan Haren stood for the Lib Dems in Wandsworth Common.

Current council: Lab 34; Con 22; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



WARWICK DC; Warwick All Saints & Woodloes (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BYRNE, Laurence Michael (Liberal Democrat)
TRACEY, Jody (Conservative)
WIGHTMAN, Claire Gwendoline (Labour)

2023: Lab 1272, 1234, 1222; Con 989, 979, 977; Grn 369, 349; LD 256, 183
2019: Con 1050, 1049, 919; Lab 892, 800, 768; Grn 462, 434, 333; LD 343; UKIP 325.

Jody Tracey was the top Conservative candidate in May and is a former councillor for the ward from 2019 until last May. One of the sitting Labout councillors is Paul WIGHTMAN, so Claire is presumably related. Laurence Byrne stood for the Lib Dems in Radford Semele, missing out on taking the seat from the Conservatives by 37 votes.

Current Council: Grn 14; Lab 10; LD 10; Con 6; Whitnash Residents 3; 1 vacancy

[batman]

Re Teddington, I'm pretty sure Dominic Stockford made his name, such as it is, as a UKIP local spokesperson.

Re Cazenove, Ian Sharer belongs to the local Haredi community & his conversion to the Conservatives is not much of a surprise to me. His candidacy cannot help the Lib Dems, surely.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

James Dylan Thompson, Labour candidate in Teddington, was candidate for Knightsbridge and Belgravia ward in Westminster in 2018.

[iang]

Dec 28, 2023 16:00:38 GMT batman said:

Re Teddington, I'm pretty sure Dominic Stockford made his name, such as it is, as a UKIP local spokesperson.

Re Cazenove, Ian Sharer belongs to the local Haredi community & his conversion to the Conservatives is not much of a surprise to me. His candidacy cannot help the Lib Dems, surely.

Why is that the case? Would be interesting to hear a bit more about the circumstances

[batman]

There was a de facto electoral pact between the Lib Dems & the Tories in the most Haredi-influenced wards in that area, as I understand it. Although they didn't necessarily stand down in favour of each other, the Lib Dems were given an effective free run against Labour in Cazenove, and the Tories were given the same in Stamford Hill West & Springfield. However I don't think the pact survived the defeat of the Lib Dems in Cazenove in 2018, and indeed may have been strained previously. The Tories survived in their two wards. They would almost certainly have been on good terms with Ian Sharer, and that's why I'm not very surprised he's now joined them. However there is now at least one strictly-Orthodox Labour councillor as well, and he sits for Cazenove ward. The remaining Labour councillor there is Jewish but not Orthodox, indeed he may be entirely secular. Re Sharer I feel that his candidacy for the Tories splits the anti-Labour vote, as I can't see the Lib Dems just giving in when they were so close last year, even though it was Sharer who was much the closest of the Lib Dems to winning.

[batman]

At least 4 of the 5 Conservative councillors are Haredim, I don't know if the Leader of the Opposition is - I think he's a bit less Orthodox but can't be sure.

[timrollpickering]

I have relatives-to-be in Hampton North. I should have given their letterbox my deepest condolences.

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Dec 28, 2023 15:42:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

RICHMOND UPON THAMES LBC; Teddington (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
BAKER, Richard Scott (Liberal Democrat)
FOSTER, Elizabeth (Conservative)
KERR-SHEPPARD, Chantal Lyn (Green)
STOCKFORD, Dominic Francis (Independent)
THOMSON, James Dylan (Labour)

2022: LD 2592, 2587, 2502; Con 840, 824, 798; Lab 445, 429, 353

Elizabeth Foster contested the ward for the Conservatives on previous boundaries in 2014 and 2018.

Perhaps more relevantly, Richard Baker also contested the ward in 2018, and topped the poll. 

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Dec 28, 2023 16:00:38 GMT batman said:

Re Teddington, I'm pretty sure Dominic Stockford made his name, such as it is, as a UKIP local spokesperson.

He also stood for the Christian Peoples Alliance in Twickenham constituency in 2015 and in the Richmond Park by-election in 2016, as well as for the Heritage Party in the last GLA elections. He's a former Catholic priest, who is now chair of the Protestant Truth Society (which is virulently anti-Catholic).

[batman]

I'd forgotten he stood in the by-election (which I came close to doing myself)

[YL]

Dec 28, 2023 15:42:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

A very London flavour this week:
SHEFFIELD MBC; Stannington (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
BRAGG, Chris (Green)
DAGNALL, Lewis William (Labour)
RODGERS, Rod (Liberal)
SAPWELL, Will (Liberal Democrat)
WOOLLARD, Ben (Conservative)

2023: LD 2783; Lab 1247; Con 706; Grn 498; TUSC 80
2022: LD 2005; Lab 1559; Grn 797; Con 775; Ind 190; UKIP 122
2021: LD 1900; Lab 1737; Con 1486; Grn 710; UKIP 165
2019: LD 2367; Lab 904; Grn 740; UKIP 675; Con 435
2018: LD 2528; Lab 1222; Con 898; Grn 573
2016: LD  2665, 2524, 2332; Lab 1446, 1434, 1281; UKIP 1047; Grn 500, 394, 338; Con 351, 345, 249; TUSC 117

Ben Woollard stood here for the Conservatives last May and in 2022. Last May, Chris Bragg (Grn) stood in Woodhouse, Lewis Dagnall (Lab) in Broomhill & Sharrow Vale and Will Sapwell (LD) in Hillsborough. I think Rod Rodgers becomes the first Liberal Party candidate in Sheffield for over 20 years.

Current Council: Lab 31; LD 28; Grn 14; Sheffield Comm Cllrs 8; Con 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Lewis Dagnall was also councillor for Central ward from 2015 to 2016; he then moved to Gleadless Valley in the 2016 all-ups (his former seat being won by the Greens) and was a councillor there until he stood down in 2021 (his former seat being won by the Greens). He is also married to Olivia Blake MP.

[YL]

Stannington

Let's start with the Stannington Brass Band playing carols in the pub (though as Christmas will be long gone by the time of the by-election I've chosen one which isn't exclusively associated with Christmas):

Stannington ward is in the north-west of the City of Sheffield. It covers much of the north-western fringe of the city's urban area together with an extensive area of rural Peak District fringe and moorland; much of its area is inside the National Park. By area, most of it is in the large parish of Bradfield. It is in the Sheffield Hallam constituency, and has been since 2010, but it is separated from the core of the constituency to the south by the deep trench of the Rivelin valley, and is a little different culturally and demographically, though it does share with the core Hallam wards a habit of voting Lib Dem locally. It is still quite middle class and owner occupied, but it does not have the very high education levels (they are slightly above average) and rates of professional employment found in the rest of the constituency, nor are there many students here.

On a hill between the Rivelin and Loxley valleys, Stannington itself is a village which has been swallowed by the city but still has something of its own identity and is one of the most populous parts of Bradfield parish. It is a reasonably middle class area, particularly on the north side, with low deprivation, but it does not have the very high concentrations of educated professionals found south of the Rivelin. One curiousity is the survival of a few postwar prefabricated houses (see Cliff Road).

The ward also includes an area outside the parish between Stannington proper and Hillsborough, including the 1960s council flats of Deer Park and Liberty Hill, which are the one area in Hallam constituency with high deprivation levels, and neighbouring Woodland View, an area with a lot of inter-war semi detached houses. These areas are sometimes known collectively as "Lower Stannington", and would be the most Labour part of the ward.

To the north of Stannington and likewise on the edge of the Sheffield urban area but in Bradfield parish is Loxley, in the valley of the river of the same name. What role this Loxley has in the legends of Robin Hood, otherwise known as Robin of Locksley, may be up for debate, but the locals certainly like to claim him (though Robin of Locksley gin is made elsewhere in Sheffield). The remaining part of the Sheffield urban area included here is the modern estate given the name Wadsley Park Village, in the grounds of the former Middlewood mental hospital and incorporating its buildings.

The rest of the ward is rural, with scattered small settlements including High and Low Bradfield, Dungworth and Hollow Meadows and the slightly bigger village of Worrall; there are also some hill farms, and if you encounter Our Cow Molly ice cream in Sheffield this is where it is made. This area was used extensively by Victorian Sheffield for water supplies, and one of the more dramatic events in its history was the Great Sheffield Flood in March 1864, when the newly filled Dale Dike Reservoir's dam collapsed, sending floodwaters down the Loxley and Don valleys to central Sheffield, causing devastation and over 200 deaths. The reservoirs remain a, hopefully more peaceful, feature of the landscape. Much of the west of the ward is uninhabited moorland managed for grouse shooting.

The Lower Stannington area was added to Sheffield by the 1920s, but the areas in Bradfield parish remained outside the city and in Wortley Rural District until 1974. Lower Stannington has been included in various Sheffield wards over the years, but in the 1980s and 1990s was included in a cross-Rivelin Walkley ward, while the Bradfield parish areas were included with the rest of Bradfield parish (now in Stocksbridge & Upper Don) and Grenoside and Ecclesfield village in an unwieldy ward called South Wortley; the current Stannington ward was created in 2004 and unchanged in 2016.

South Wortley was a Labour/Conservative marginal in the 1970s, but it mostly voted Alliance and then Lib Dem from the 1980s onwards, and Stannington has always voted Lib Dem. However, Labour did reduce the majority to 5 votes in 2011, and to be winning Sheffield Hallam in General Elections they surely must be beating the Lib Dems in this ward. The different demographics from the rest of the constituency suggest that it is less of a Remain area, and although we don't have ward figures for Sheffield it has been reported that it voted Leave. Related to this it will also be one of the better areas of the constituency for the Conservatives, though especially in local elections this is not saying much, they still can't get into the top two, and they do still get higher vote shares in Dore & Totley than here. It would be hard to bet against a Lib Dem hold in the by-election.

[jamesdoyle]

Dec 30, 2023 9:53:55 GMT YL said:

Stannington

Let's start with the Stannington Brass Band playing carols in the pub (though as Christmas will be long gone by the time of the by-election I've chosen one which isn't exclusively associated with Christmas):

You certainly know how to get the andrewteale vote (and mine, husband to a trombone player)

[Tony Otim]

Dec 29, 2023 22:49:20 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Dec 28, 2023 15:42:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

RICHMOND UPON THAMES LBC; Teddington (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
BAKER, Richard Scott (Liberal Democrat)
FOSTER, Elizabeth (Conservative)
KERR-SHEPPARD, Chantal Lyn (Green)
STOCKFORD, Dominic Francis (Independent)
THOMSON, James Dylan (Labour)

2022: LD 2592, 2587, 2502; Con 840, 824, 798; Lab 445, 429, 353

Elizabeth Foster contested the ward for the Conservatives on previous boundaries in 2014 and 2018.

Perhaps more relevantly, Richard Baker also contested the ward in 2018, and topped the poll. 

Thanks - I'd managed to miss that one...

[J.G.Harston]

Dec 30, 2023 9:53:55 GMT YL said:

On a hill between the Rivelin and Loxley valleys, Stannington ...

Cllr Arthur Dunworth would refer to Stannngton as Mesopotamia.

[batman]

I am hoping to canvass in Cazenove, other commitments permitting, next weekend.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

It appears that Labour has suspended Laura Pascal, candidate in Cazenove, and is no longer organising campaigning.

The reason is most likely to be that her social media has manifestly exceeded the limits of civilised debate on a very sensitive issue.

[jamie]

Jan 13, 2024 13:39:01 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It appears that Labour has suspended Laura Pascal, candidate in Cazenove, and is no longer organising campaigning.

The reason is most likely to be that her social media has manifestly exceeded the limits of civilised debate on a very sensitive issue.

From a quick look, there is a pinned tweet on the existence of biological sex and the occasional ‘gender critical’ tweet (including one supporting Starmer’s position). 

[dizz]

Undoubtedly she will be gaining some votes. Here is a purported local flyer (I am not expressing any opinion on it just presenting it):

[kevinf]

Jan 13, 2024 15:04:11 GMT jamie said:

Jan 13, 2024 13:39:01 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

It appears that Labour has suspended Laura Pascal, candidate in Cazenove, and is no longer organising campaigning.

The reason is most likely to be that her social media has manifestly exceeded the limits of civilised debate on a very sensitive issue.

From a quick look, there is a pinned tweet on the existence of biological sex and the occasional ‘gender critical’ tweet (including one supporting Starmer’s position). 

There’s nothing new about her position, which is well known. So why suspend her now? Not that I expect it will affect her vote.