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Post by BucksDucks on Jan 17, 2024 15:53:25 GMT
I believe there is a tacit pact between the Liberals and Greens in Warwick District. greenchristian will know. Have the Liberals got a base in Warwick? That's rather surprising, after their demise in Pickering I thought their only strength remained in Liverpool. The Liberals still have a councillor in Pickering in North Yorkshire. They also won a seat in Honiton St Michael's ward in East Devon. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 17, 2024 18:36:42 GMT
Have the Liberals got a base in Warwick? That's rather surprising, after their demise in Pickering I thought their only strength remained in Liverpool. The Liberals still have a councillor in Pickering in North Yorkshire. They also won a seat in Honiton St Michael's ward in East Devon. But she is part of the Lib Dem group. |
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Post by phil156 on Jan 17, 2024 19:28:51 GMT
Full house on Thursday they all counting at 10pm
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jan 17, 2024 21:33:48 GMT
Reverse, reverse, Pascal unsuspended in Hackney.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 18, 2024 8:08:02 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 18, 2024 13:35:45 GMT
Reverse, reverse, Pascal unsuspended in Hackney. "You do the hokey-cokey...."  |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 18, 2024 15:13:32 GMT
I suspect many of us would have "upped" our Labour share if this had happened 24 hours earlier  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 18, 2024 19:32:57 GMT
I suspect many of us would have "upped" our Labour share if this had happened 24 hours earlier I doubt it will actually have much effect beyond her being able to join the Labour group if elected. I suspect those voters who both noticed and cared about her suspension will have already decided to vote for somebody else. I guess the last minute resumption of campaign may enable them to drag a few more people out to vote, perhaps? |
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Post by John Chanin on Jan 18, 2024 19:54:28 GMT
I suspect the new Hackney mayor has been screaming at the Regional office, and it was in everyone's interest to broker a deal, rather than let things drag on for months as usually happens. Pascal has produced an 'apology' which doesn't mean she has changed her views. The resignations will now come from the 'transphobia' faction who made the complaint, and who certainly won't be out in the cold knocking up Labour voters tonight.
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Post by greenman on Jan 18, 2024 22:01:06 GMT
I would be very surprised if labour lost any council seats in London as YouGov has them on 57% in the city, Con 15, LD 11 and Reform & Green 8.
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jan 18, 2024 22:11:10 GMT
I would be very surprised if labour lost any council seats in London as YouGov has them on 57% in the city, Con 15, LD 11 and Reform & Green 8. But of course that support is not spread evenly across the whole of London. It seems, for example, quite implausible that they will win either of the Richmond seats (though it depends what you mean by "lost" - they don't currently hold them). Meanwhile Cazenove is the ward in Hackney where most of the LD support is concentrated. |
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Post by greenman on Jan 18, 2024 22:43:13 GMT
The Conservatives are not going to win in either Tooting Broadway or Cazenove. Those who oppose Pascal are either going to stay home or vote Green, but it also highly likely that more "conservative" voters might support Pascal's social media statements. The best LD showing in Cazenove was 42.7% in 2022, up from 38.5% in 2018. Labour won between 50% and 45.7% in 2022. There has only been one by-election in Hackney on July 7th in 2022 and the Mayoralty by-election 2023. In both instances the LD vote dropped, so why would it rise in the Cazenove by-election?
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Post by olympian95 on Jan 18, 2024 22:50:37 GMT
The Conservatives seem well organised in their two held wards in Hackney. I wouldn't rule them out in Cazenove this time. I think the LDs were reliant on a Tory pact and Sharer's connection with the orthodox Jewish community, neither of which are in place to help them this time.
Tooting Broadway will be a labour hold with a modest swing to the blues, I would have thought (unnecessary byelection etc)
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jan 18, 2024 22:56:19 GMT
The Conservatives are not going to win in either Tooting Broadway or Cazenove. Those who oppose Pascal are either going to stay home or vote Green, but it also highly likely that more "conservative" voters might support Pascal's social media statements. The best LD showing in Cazenove was 42.7% in 2022, up from 38.5% in 2018. Labour won between 50% and 45.7% in 2022. There has only been one by-election in Hackney on July 7th in 2022 and the Mayoralty by-election 2023. In both instances the LD vote dropped, so why would it rise in the Cazenove by-election? Because they would be campaigning seriously in Cazenove from a close second place, unlike in De Beavouir where they were third in 2022 and clearly heavily squeezed by the Greens, or the Mayoral where they were fourth in 2022 and presumably had no interest or capacity to campaign borough wide?
Don't get me wrong, it's entirely possible Labour will win - but it's pretty obvious that the two other examples you give aren't exactly comparable for extrapolating LD performance in Cazenove.
And of course: - a party can win without their own vote share increasing - a party's vote share can increase despite getting fewer raw votes - in fact this is very common in byelections due to lower turnout.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2024 23:29:51 GMT
Hackney, Cazenove turnout 31.92% - rather high given January byelection in freezing cold weather.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jan 18, 2024 23:41:06 GMT
Tooting Broadway
Lab 1888 (67.3%)
Con 542 (19.3%)
Green 261 (9.3%)
Lib Dem 113 (4.0%)
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jan 18, 2024 23:51:37 GMT
Stannington
Lib Dem 2258 (52.7%)
Lab 1212 (28.3%)
Con 372 (8.7%)
Green 328 (7.6%)
Liberal 118 (2.8%)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2024 23:57:50 GMT
Straw in the wind from the Cazenove count
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 19, 2024 0:02:52 GMT
Stannington Lib Dem 2258 (52.7%) Lab 1212 (28.3%) Con 372 (8.7%) Green 328 (7.6%) Liberal 118 (2.8%) Definitely pleasing for the Lib Dems looking ahead to the elections this May - a small upswing from an all-time best result in 2023. Good for Labour to increase their share and basically match their 2023 performance in raw votes, but that was itself a very disappointing result - the share this time is still below their 2021 and 2022 results. |
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Post by olympian95 on Jan 19, 2024 0:03:21 GMT
LDs confident that Richmond is now Tory free...
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