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Post by batman on Jan 19, 2024 7:07:03 GMT
I don’t blame anyone for failing to predict the hugeness of the Lib Dem collapse in Cazenove though. Beware attempting to understand strictly-Orthodox politics!
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 19, 2024 7:17:26 GMT
Lib Dem GAIN RICHMOND UPON THAMES LBC; Hampton North Ward 🔶 BISHOP, Carey, LibDem, 1177, 53.2%, +19.9% 🟢 Grn, 106, 4.8%, -16.2% 🔴 Lab, 159, 7.2%, -1.1% 🔵 Con, 771, 34.8%, +11.2% Congrats🎉 to Cllr. Cary Bishop and her team on an excellent win 🥇. I am a bit confused with the share of the vote figures They are down in 3 parties by 28.5% but the LD has only got a gain of 19.9% The Tory is +, not -. The 2022 "top vote" figures, which the comparisons are with, aren't very useful here because of the Lib Dem/Green pact. The figures, for three seats, were Lib Dem 1654, 1560Con 1175, 1117, 983 Green 1044 Ind Coelho 678 Lab 412, 337. 314 Doing the "top vote" calculation with those raw figures gives Lib Dem 33.3%, Con 23.7%, Green 21.0%, Ind Coelho 13.7%, Lab 8.3%. But effectively the Green was a badly trailing third member of the Lib Dem slate, and if you do the calculation treating the two parties together you get Lib Dem/Green 42.2%, Con 30.0%, Ind Coelho 17.3%, Lab 10.5%. And that's without taking into account the distorting effect of a single Independent candidate in "top vote" calculations for a multi-member election. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jan 19, 2024 7:26:39 GMT
I don’t blame anyone for failing to predict the hugeness of the Lib Dem collapse in Cazenove though. Beware attempting to understand strictly-Orthodox politics! Is it possible that Sharer would have won if he was an Independent? Or even the candidate of the OMRLP or CPGB? |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 19, 2024 7:51:49 GMT
I don’t blame anyone for failing to predict the hugeness of the Lib Dem collapse in Cazenove though. Beware attempting to understand strictly-Orthodox politics! Is it possible that Sharer would have won if he was an Independent? Or even the candidate of the OMRLP or CPGB? I'd defer to Barnaby here, but I would say yes in a by-election perhaps not in an normal council election. I saw the switch coming but underestimated how big it would be for the prediction competition. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jan 19, 2024 8:20:51 GMT
Stannington Lib Dem 2258 (52.7%) Lab 1212 (28.3%) Con 372 (8.7%) Green 328 (7.6%) Liberal 118 (2.8%) Definitely pleasing for the Lib Dems looking ahead to the elections this May - a small upswing from an all-time best result in 2023. Good for Labour to increase their share and basically match their 2023 performance in raw votes, but that was itself a very disappointing result - the share this time is still below their 2021 and 2022 results. Yes, this is an unambiguously good result for the Lib Dems. For Labour at least they have reversed that drop in share in 2023 but I think the outcome is a bit underwhelming. The Tory share is verging on embarrassing, in a ward which ought to have more potential for them than a lot of Sheffield wards, though I don't think they put much effort in. It's also poor for the Greens, though again I didn't get the impression they were trying hard. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 19, 2024 8:24:12 GMT
Vote shares and changes in the 4 later results
Hackney Cazenove
Con 53.8% (+47.5)
Lab 31 % (-12.2)
Green 12.8% (+1.2)
LD 2.4% (-34.5)
No TUSC from before
Richmond, Hampton North
LD 53.2% (+19.9)
Con 34.8% (+11.1)
Lab 7.2% (-1.1)
Green 4.8% (-16.2)
No Ind from before
Richmond, Teddington
LD 64.3% (-2.6)
Con 21% (-0.7)
Green 6.9% (new)
Lab 6.1% (-5.4)
Ind 1.7% (new)
Warwick. All Saints and Woodloes
Lab 52.5% (+8.4)
Con 37.5% (+3.3)
LD 10% (+1.1)
No Green from before
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Post by minionofmidas on Jan 19, 2024 8:31:54 GMT
I don’t blame anyone for failing to predict the hugeness of the Lib Dem collapse in Cazenove though. Beware attempting to understand strictly-Orthodox politics! Is it possible that Sharer would have won if he was an Independent? Or even the candidate of the OMRLP or CPGB? obviously / probably not? He'd need at the least to coherently explain the reasons for it to the community's satisfaction? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 19, 2024 8:32:50 GMT
An update on local by elections this municipal year, following the six elections held on 18/01/24
This municipal year, there have now been the same number of Conservative gains from Labour as there have been Labour gains from Conservative- 4 each way
The Liberal Democrats haven’t lost a seat to either Labour or the Conservatives since May
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 18th January 2024 there have now been 127 ordinary by elections for 129 seats since May 4th 2023
The Conservatives have defended 34- Held 12 and lost 22: 5 to the Greens, 12 to the Lib Dems 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 35%) and have gained 7
Labour have defended 46- Held 34 and lost 12: 4 to the Conservatives, 5 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dems and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 74%) and have gained 8
Lib Dems have defended 23- Held 21 and lost 2,1 to the Greens and 1 to an Independent ( retention rate 91% ) and have gained 18
Greens have defended 9- Held 5 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 56%) and have gained 8
There have been elections for 6 seats previously held by Independents: 3 have been won by an another Independent , 1 each were lost to the Conservatives, the Lib Dems and the Greens. . And Independents have gained 8
Residents/ local groups have defended 5, held 4 and lost 1 to the Lib Dems
SNP have defended 4 Lost 4, 1 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems
Overall net changes
Con -15
Lab -4
LD +16
Green +4
Ind + 5
SNP -4
Res/ local groups -1
Vectis -1
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Post by batman on Jan 19, 2024 8:37:54 GMT
Is it possible that Sharer would have won if he was an Independent? Or even the candidate of the OMRLP or CPGB? I'd defer to Barnaby here, but I would say yes in a by-election perhaps not in an normal council election. I saw the switch coming but underestimated how big it would be for the prediction competition. Think you may be correct. But Sharer is obviously not unbeatable, after all he lost as Lib Dem both in 2018 & 2022. If the next council election returns to more normal circumstances, without Labour disowning their candidate, it will be a very interesting contest. I'm quite sure that the result was influenced this time by Labour not doing any GOTV or for the last week or so any other campaigning. Although as The Bishop (I think) says many votes would have been cast by post, a helluva lot will have been casted in person. Could Sharer win as an Independent? Purely depends on circumstances. The chances of him defecting to the OMRLP are I think remote..... |
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Post by beacon on Jan 19, 2024 8:49:48 GMT
I believe that the proliferation of 20mph traffic calming measures alienated the electorate in Cazenove.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 19, 2024 8:53:36 GMT
The failure of the Green Party in Richmond to form an effective electoral campaigning block of its own despite being gifted a sizeable council group by the electoral pact with the Lib Dems is worthy of comment. Despite or maybe because of? They haven't needed to work in the same way as other local parties in order to get a breakthrough. There is also a wider point about relative under performance generally in local elections across London compared to other parts of the country... |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jan 19, 2024 9:48:23 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +86
Con +70
Lab +62
Grn -21
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jan 19, 2024 9:51:49 GMT
I believe that the proliferation of 20mph traffic calming measures alienated the electorate in Cazenove. Yes we all got caught up in the Labour suspension but I suspect that a small number of voters in the ward would even have known about this when they voted. There must have been some more local issues going on. Those Tory and LD swings seem unreal. Must be one of the worst LD by-election performances for a long time (Please tell me they didn't do a pro-trans-rights leaflet around the Orthodox community.) Do we know why the LDs lost Ian Sharer as their candidate? Must have been a decent chance of gaining the seat if they'd held on to him. |
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jan 19, 2024 10:21:48 GMT
I believe that the proliferation of 20mph traffic calming measures alienated the electorate in Cazenove. Yes we all got caught up in the Labour suspension but I suspect that a small number of voters in the ward would even have known about this when they voted. There must have been some more local issues going on. Those Tory and LD swings seem unreal. Must be one of the worst LD by-election performances for a long time (Please tell me they didn't do a pro-trans-rights leaflet around the Orthodox community.) Do we know why the LDs lost Ian Sharer as their candidate? Must have been a decent chance of gaining the seat if they'd held on to him. As Beacon identified, it does seem to have been over low-traffic neighbourhoods. www.onlondon.co.uk/hackney-dimensions-of-the-cazenove-by-election/ |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 19, 2024 10:22:38 GMT
I don’t blame anyone for failing to predict the hugeness of the Lib Dem collapse in Cazenove though. Beware attempting to understand strictly-Orthodox politics! If I remember rightly, the dynasty with the most followers in the ward (and this is certainly not the case elsewhere in Stamford Hill) is the Satmar, which means this point scores double. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 19, 2024 10:38:45 GMT
Surely if the suspension had a significant effect on anything, it was through Labour not campaigning for around a week.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 19, 2024 10:41:27 GMT
Which one is Sharer, the guy in the coat? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 19, 2024 10:51:53 GMT
Which one is Sharer, the guy in the coat? He wasn't there. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 19, 2024 11:01:57 GMT
He reportedly wasn't able to attend the count. That's Pearce Branigan, his agent (and also the local London Assembly candidate), presumably standing in for the declaration.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jan 19, 2024 11:35:10 GMT
On a minor note Dave Raval's agent was Ben Mathis (at the extreme right of the photo?), who was the Lib Dem parliamentary candidate in 2019 until he was suspended from the party mid campaign for past Twitter posts. Looks like he's back in the party (he's moved to Lewisham) unless this was a personal favour to the candidate.
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