wysall
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Post by wysall on Feb 17, 2024 20:06:19 GMT
99.9% of the world has happily moved on from this being an issue. If someone like me can openly display it (including but not limited to a rainbow in my Twitter bio) in the sphere of politics in which I operate, then it’s certainly not a problem for any Labour candidate anywhere. And nor should it be. The world has certainly moved on , but would not agree with the estimate of 99.9%. I would suggest 75% is likely to be nearer the mark. There were a couple of people in the local pub last night talking about him referring to 'his husband' and were clearly unimpressed. The prejudice is now likely to be much more hidden but is still there. The same applies to couples having kids out of wedlock. It is not the stigma it was , but quite a few people still disapprove.
I was canvassing in Darlington last February and we happened upon a man who said he would vote Labour because of the Tory MP being gay. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 17, 2024 21:11:56 GMT
there's always one
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 17, 2024 22:08:23 GMT
I think that may be why it seems so high to you. Not really. When I heard him make the remark following the declaration it occurred to me that it would not be well received by everybody. As long as he doesn't use "me and my husband" as a subject, or "I and my husband" as an object, I don't care. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 17, 2024 22:12:04 GMT
I recall when canvassing for a candidate at the Local Elections in 1996 being told by a voter that she felt unable to support the candidate because he was a cohabitee - ie'living in sin.' It rather opened my eyes to the reality that not everyone is happy with modern standards of morality. In canvassing in 1999 I was accused of being racist for being married to a Chinese woman. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Feb 18, 2024 3:00:25 GMT
I recall when canvassing for a candidate at the Local Elections in 1996 being told by a voter that she felt unable to support the candidate because he was a cohabitee - ie'living in sin.' It rather opened my eyes to the reality that not everyone is happy with modern standards of morality. In canvassing in 1999 I was accused of being racist for being married to a Chinese woman. Did the booliak explain how it was defined as “racist”? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 18, 2024 8:56:50 GMT
The world has certainly moved on , but would not agree with the estimate of 99.9%. I would suggest 75% is likely to be nearer the mark. There were a couple of people in the local pub last night talking about him referring to 'his husband' and were clearly unimpressed. The prejudice is now likely to be much more hidden but is still there. The same applies to couples having kids out of wedlock. It is not the stigma it was , but quite a few people still disapprove.
I was canvassing in Darlington last February and we happened upon a man who said he would vote Labour because of the Tory MP being gay. And of course you tried to dissuade him from this course of action ... |
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Post by minionofmidas on Feb 18, 2024 9:04:27 GMT
Pete Whitehead are they using a different methology? (Personally I find 'would be down to 8 seats' far more amusing than 'would be wiped out entirely')
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 18, 2024 10:15:37 GMT
Pete Whitehead are they using a different methology? (Personally I find 'would be down to 8 seats' far more amusing than 'would be wiped out entirely') Proportional swing I would think - used to be my preferred method too but I have adopted the Butler swing for the series of maps I've done based on by-elections |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 18, 2024 10:18:49 GMT
I'm curious where this extra Green seat is supposed to be
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 18, 2024 10:33:25 GMT
I'm curious where this extra Green seat is supposed to be Bristol Central appears to be highlighted, though I don't know how it goes Green! Even a very generous reading of the figures that combines the Green and ex Green suggests they won ~7% of the vote - doubling their share from last time and increasing their numerical vote by about 15-20%. That wouldn't be anything like enough to flip Bristol Central, given Labour also saw their vote increase... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 18, 2024 10:40:27 GMT
I'm curious where this extra Green seat is supposed to be Bristol Central appears to be highlighted, though I don't know how it goes Green! Even a very generous reading of the figures that combines the Green and ex Green suggests they won ~7% of the vote - doubling their share from last time and increasing their numerical vote by about 15-20%. That wouldn't be anything like enough to flip Bristol Central, given Labour also saw their vote increase... In other words 'Stats for Lefties' are fucking morons |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Feb 18, 2024 10:44:39 GMT
Ok - though this candidate seemed particularly open about this. 99.9% of the world has happily moved on from this being an issue. If someone like me can openly display it (including but not limited to a rainbow in my Twitter bio) in the sphere of politics in which I operate, then it’s certainly not a problem for any Labour candidate anywhere. And nor should it be. Rise in attacks on gay men and lesbians seem to be at odds with this 99.9% bit. Apparently couples seem to be bearing the brunt |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 18, 2024 10:49:09 GMT
Bristol Central appears to be highlighted, though I don't know how it goes Green! Even a very generous reading of the figures that combines the Green and ex Green suggests they won ~7% of the vote - doubling their share from last time and increasing their numerical vote by about 15-20%. That wouldn't be anything like enough to flip Bristol Central, given Labour also saw their vote increase... In other words 'Stats for Lefties' are fucking morons This is not news, if you look at some of their previous hits. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 18, 2024 11:48:26 GMT
This constant claim that the Greens are favoured to gain Bristol Central is regularly mentioned, and I even heard it fleetingly stated on the BBC Newscast Byelection special, all seemingly predicated on the Greens doing well in the local elections there (the remark was something like "The Greens were just behind last time"  ). I find it very difficult to believe that the sort of electorate in Bristol Central are so impressed by the Green candidate as opposed to Thangam Debbonaire, that they are going to swing so impressively to the Greens. It is a bit like the claims for Molly Scott Cato in Stroud, although not going to cause the damage that it did there. I assume that the Greens will throw all their resources in the South West at Bristol Central, but, given Labour are safe enough in the rest of Bristol, I can see them responding in kind. I would guess quite a few of the old Bristol West CLP Corbynites have defected to the Greens, My best mate's daughter was an officer in the local party and the atmosphere was made so toxic by the hard-left that she no longer works for the party. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 18, 2024 11:50:22 GMT
Of course, the Greens might make the mistake of being over-confident and splitting their resources to target too many areas on the basis of recent good local election results, which will not go well for them.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 18, 2024 11:59:25 GMT
I think you may be able to calibrate whether Labour selecting an LGBT candidate is likely to harm its chances by looking at Batley and Spen, Wakefield, West Lancashire, and Selby and Ainsty. Well, in one of those contests the sexuality of the Labour candidate was certainly a big deal to a certain other person standing. (even if, typically, they were careful to make this plausibly deniable - at least most of the time) |
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wysall
Forum Regular
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Post by wysall on Feb 18, 2024 12:10:53 GMT
I was canvassing in Darlington last February and we happened upon a man who said he would vote Labour because of the Tory MP being gay. And of course you tried to dissuade him from this course of action ... I was not the one speaking to him. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Feb 18, 2024 13:31:21 GMT
Pete Whitehead are they using a different methology? (Personally I find 'would be down to 8 seats' far more amusing than 'would be wiped out entirely') They used the “making up a load of nonsense and being stupid enough to think that people will be stupid enough not to notice” method. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Feb 18, 2024 13:52:12 GMT
Of course, the Greens might make the mistake of being over-confident and splitting their resources to target too many areas on the basis of recent good local election results, which will not go well for them. Their strategy is focusing specifically on four seats– Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley, and North Herefordshire. I know some Greens in other areas aren't happy with that narrow targeting. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Feb 18, 2024 14:04:56 GMT
I was canvassing in Darlington last February and we happened upon a man who said he would vote Labour because of the Tory MP being gay. And of course you tried to dissuade him from this course of action ... of course you would have done as so many Liberals were at pains to do in Bermondsey in 1983 |
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). I find it very difficult to believe that the sort of electorate in Bristol Central are so impressed by the Green candidate as opposed to Thangam Debbonaire, that they are going to swing so impressively to the Greens. It is a bit like the claims for Molly Scott Cato in Stroud, although not going to cause the damage that it did there.
