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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2023 6:06:52 GMT
Kevin McCarthy was given the boot last week (216-210) with fresh Speaker elections due. Scalise and Jordan are both standing. Trump had a couple of supporters himself (MTG and Troy Niehls) but threw his weight behind Jordan. Jordan once ran the Freedom Caucus (their ilk hamstrung McCarthy). Scalise is a bit more moderate.
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Post by batman on Oct 8, 2023 7:42:09 GMT
Surely the possibility of prolonged deadlock is very strong.
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Post by mrpastelito on Oct 8, 2023 8:45:56 GMT
An interesting aspect is that Scalise is a staunch supporter of Ukraine whereas Jordan is vehemently opposed to any further help.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2023 8:47:09 GMT
An interesting aspect is that Scalise is a staunch supporter of Ukraine whereas Jordan is vehemently opposed to any further help. This is why Scailse has no path, IMO. The 'America First' contingent are just too strong for him to win, plus the ability to eject a Speaker was a coup for them. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 8, 2023 12:02:54 GMT
Jordan will not be acceptable to many of the GOP caucus.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 8, 2023 12:31:34 GMT
Jordan will not be acceptable to many of the GOP caucus. It is hard to overstate the anger of the GOP moderates at the moment. McCarthy had the backing of the overwhelming majority of the conference and was brought down by a tiny minority. I just don't see anyway the moderate wing are simply going to allow the far right of the conference to get their own way and instal Jordan as Speaker. Before this gets to the floor the GOP conference will be voting on who their nominee will be. I expect Scalise to win that vote and Jordan to accept defeat. However it seems unlikely that Scalise will get the 217 votes he needs on the house floor. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 8, 2023 12:34:54 GMT
Jordan will not be acceptable to many of the GOP caucus. It is hard to overstate the anger of the GOP moderates at the moment. McCarthy had the backing of the overwhelming majority of the conference and was brought down by a tiny minority. I just don't see anyway the moderate wing are simply going to allow the far right of the conference to get their own way and instal Jordan as Speaker. Before this gets to the floor the GOP conference will be voting on who their nominee will be. I expect Scalise to win that vote and Jordan to accept defeat. However it seems unlikely that Scalise will get the 217 votes he needs on the house floor. And that’s where some eyes will be on the Democrats again, but it doesn’t seem like any of them are inclined to help without getting some kind of concessions |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 8, 2023 12:41:33 GMT
It is hard to overstate the anger of the GOP moderates at the moment. McCarthy had the backing of the overwhelming majority of the conference and was brought down by a tiny minority. I just don't see anyway the moderate wing are simply going to allow the far right of the conference to get their own way and instal Jordan as Speaker. Before this gets to the floor the GOP conference will be voting on who their nominee will be. I expect Scalise to win that vote and Jordan to accept defeat. However it seems unlikely that Scalise will get the 217 votes he needs on the house floor. And that’s where some eyes will be on the Democrats again, but it doesn’t seem like any of them are inclined to help without getting some kind of concessions I think it is more likely, albeit still unlikely, that a handful of moderate Republicans end up joining with the Democrats and electing a compromise Speaker. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2023 12:46:32 GMT
I think there are several possible outcomes here:
1) Steve Scalise wins by making Jordan an offer he can't refuse - Appropriations Committee Chair, Ways & Means Chair (these are the top House committees)
2) Jim Jordan wins (unlikely but you may have GOP House members who are motivated to back Jordan because of Trump's support for him.
3) A coalition of the willing elects a compromise candidate (who?) Lee Zeldin got some votes last time, but he's not in Congress.
FYI: there are more Republicans in Biden Districts than Democrats in Trump Districts (by quite some margin).
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 8, 2023 15:29:23 GMT
I think there are several possible outcomes here: 1) Steve Scalise wins by making Jordan an offer he can't refuse - Appropriations Committee Chair, Ways & Means Chair (these are the top House committees) 2) Jim Jordan wins (unlikely but you may have GOP House members who are motivated to back Jordan because of Trump's support for him. 3) A coalition of the willing elects a compromise candidate (who?) Lee Zeldin got some votes last time, but he's not in Congress. FYI: there are more Republicans in Biden Districts than Democrats in Trump Districts (by quite some margin). Point one are offers that Scalise can't make as these chairmanships are not within the gift of the Speaker. Even if he could swing it the support of Jordan is far from certain to bring the likes of Biggs and Gaetz on board. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2023 16:03:14 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 9, 2023 17:56:20 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2023 18:39:41 GMT
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Oct 9, 2023 21:47:44 GMT
Even more exciting than Mid-Bedfordshire. Agree with CatholicLeft that Jordan is a long shot- 90% of Republicans didn't vote to remove McCarthy and no way the candidate of the extremes wins in current climate. May well be prolonged vote - if Scalise is the candidate then he may not have the majority and we'll have rounds and rounds again. But just like with McCarthy he'll be in a strong position; the hard right might want to vote against but what's their endgame? They aren't getting their favoured choice in and my guess is that inertia would make Scalise - if it is he - get over the line sooner or later. And be just as unstable, for the same reasons as McCarthy was. |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 9, 2023 21:56:57 GMT
I'd be interested in anyone's thoughts as to who a potential "compromise candidate" may be?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2023 3:16:48 GMT
Representatives Duarte and Gimenez say they only back McCarthy as Speaker. Internal votes start tomorrow: x.com/JakeSherman/status/1711533159735607547?s=20. If you are a GOP Congressperson in Cali or New York, why jeopardise your re-election further by backing Jim Jordan? Duarte flipping a Biden supporting seat went under the radar, he and David Valadao (who voted to impeach Trump in 2021) are vulnerable in 2024. Still, the McEstablishment (Senate Minority Leader McConnell, now ex-Speaker McCarthy and RNC Chair McDaniel) is wounded. I suspect McConnell may be ousted in 2025 if he doesn't step back from his role since 2007. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 10, 2023 9:28:02 GMT
Representatives Duarte and Gimenez say they only back McCarthy as Speaker. Internal votes start tomorrow: x.com/JakeSherman/status/1711533159735607547?s=20. If you are a GOP Congressperson in Cali or New York, why jeopardise your re-election further by backing Jim Jordan? Duarte flipping a Biden supporting seat went under the radar, he and David Valadao (who voted to impeach Trump in 2021) are vulnerable in 2024. Still, the McEstablishment (Senate Minority Leader McConnell, now ex-Speaker McCarthy and RNC Chair McDaniel) is wounded. I suspect McConnell may be ousted in 2025 if he doesn't step back from his role since 2007. McConnell has far more control over the Senate conference than McCarthy did the House, he won’t be ousted unless it’s related to the health issues. And it’s different anyway since the Leader positions aren’t voted on in the same way as Speaker |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2023 16:18:56 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 11, 2023 16:20:47 GMT
His years in the leadership team was always going to be beneficial and he seems to be more trusted as a conservative than McCarthy was |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2023 16:22:26 GMT
His years in the leadership team was always going to be beneficial and he seems to be more trusted as a conservative than McCarthy was Public backers: Jordan 48, Scalise 34, McCarthy 7, Trump 1. |
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