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Post by matureleft on Nov 24, 2023 14:18:25 GMT
It looks like VVD doesn’t want to be inside the cabinet but is open to providing support to the government from the outside. A rather strange position in my opinion, unless they expect the new government to be statist on the economy. The difficulty for any populist party entering into a coalition is that while they can get some of their more practical policies implemented, the more populist ones that don't recognise reality get vetoed by coalition partners. And so the populist party gets tainted by its adherence to the sort of traditional right wing policies that it was campaigning against. Staying out and staying pure will preserve a high level of support but will obviously not achieve much if the government has a majority. Supporting a minority government from the outside therefore has considerable advantages - the traditional power without responsibility. It should also be noted that exercise of power requires acquiescence to reality, and facts on the ground, and this can educate and moderate populist politicians, and occasionally their low information supporters. Yup. Particularly as there still some votes on the populist right to be swept up. If their parties are drawn into a closer relationship with the government they can be attacked when the time comes to add some distance, claiming that the government has had its chance. |
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Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2023 14:26:34 GMT
The difficulty for any populist party entering into a coalition is that while they can get some of their more practical policies implemented, the more populist ones that don't recognise reality get vetoed by coalition partners. And so the populist party gets tainted by its adherence to the sort of traditional right wing policies that it was campaigning against. Staying out and staying pure will preserve a high level of support but will obviously not achieve much if the government has a majority. Supporting a minority government from the outside therefore has considerable advantages - the traditional power without responsibility. It should also be noted that exercise of power requires acquiescence to reality, and facts on the ground, and this can educate and moderate populist politicians, and occasionally their low information supporters. Wilders seems more than willing to drop some of his more extreme policies. I think she’s making a mistake because it probably gives statist parties who are in opposition more of a say on economic policy (healthcare is a perfect example), especially since PVV,BBB, and NSC aren’t very right wing on most economic issues. I don't understand how NL fails to have a single party that's right wing on economic matters when it has a good 15 parties in parliament. We have VVD which is a little right of centre, and then a huge mass of populist and left parties, with the odd christian democrat party. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 14:38:22 GMT
Wilders seems more than willing to drop some of his more extreme policies. I think she’s making a mistake because it probably gives statist parties who are in opposition more of a say on economic policy (healthcare is a perfect example), especially since PVV,BBB, and NSC aren’t very right wing on most economic issues. I don't understand how NL fails to have a single party that's right wing on economic matters when it has a good 15 parties in parliament. We have VVD which is a little right of centre, and then a huge mass of populist and left parties, with the odd christian democrat party. Wasn’t VVD even more right leaning on economics until a decade ago or so? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 24, 2023 15:40:29 GMT
It looks like VVD doesn’t want to be inside the cabinet but is open to providing support to the government from the outside. A rather strange position in my opinion, unless they expect the new government to be statist on the economy. Her statement seems to imply that the VVD are going to swerve government altogether. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 15:48:33 GMT
It looks like VVD doesn’t want to be inside the cabinet but is open to providing support to the government from the outside. A rather strange position in my opinion, unless they expect the new government to be statist on the economy. Her statement seems to imply that the VVD are going to swerve government altogether. Which completely takes the possibility of a Timmermans government off the table. |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 24, 2023 16:33:07 GMT
It makes a lot of sense for the VVD to just let the anti immigration parties rule. That’s the only way immigration will stop being a political issue and bring the discussion on to their patch of the economy one way or the other.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Nov 24, 2023 16:48:06 GMT
It looks like VVD doesn’t want to be inside the cabinet but is open to providing support to the government from the outside. A rather strange position in my opinion, unless they expect the new government to be statist on the economy. The difficulty for any populist party entering into a coalition is that while they can get some of their more practical policies implemented, the more populist ones that don't recognise reality get vetoed by coalition partners. And so the populist party gets tainted by its adherence to the sort of traditional right wing policies that it was campaigning against. Staying out and staying pure will preserve a high level of support but will obviously not achieve much if the government has a majority. Supporting a minority government from the outside therefore has considerable advantages - the traditional power without responsibility. It should also be noted that exercise of power requires acquiescence to reality, and facts on the ground, and this can educate and moderate populist politicians, and occasionally their low information supporters. Voters for populist parties are rarely low information voters. The idea that multiculturalism is going well in working class areas mostly requires eyes to be firmly shut. Well connected university graduates within Westminster are some of the lowest information voters of all. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 24, 2023 16:53:08 GMT
The triumph (in plurality terms) of the PVV has made me wonder what the election map of the Netherlands would look like in terms of FPTP (a) as it actually voted (b) as it would have voted if Netherlands actually used FPTP in real life. Presumably (b) would have evolved a main right-wing party (a larger and more moderate version of the PVV plus liberals) and a main left-wing party (Labour sort-of). Possibly with some idiosyncratic local clusters of inner-city Greens and countryside religious weirdo parties. Edit: I found a map of local pluralities, which approximately confirms my thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/181x5jn/netherlands_2023_election_map_by_biggest_party/ Interactive Map - www.trouw.nl/verkiezingen/tweede-kamerverkiezingen-2023-hoe-is-er-gestemd-in-uw-gemeente~be91966c/?referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2FNoticeably, NSC topped the poll in a large proportion of eastern localities on the border with Germany, which first and foremost accounts for the CDA's collapse as this was once their heartland. The majority of the Dutch localities outside the capital of Amsterdam where PVV did not occupy 1st or 2nd place were in Utrecht, primarily those bordering the city itself. PVV sweeping Limburg, and the GL/PvdA alliance making less progress there than any other province, is a clear sign of the left's fundamental problems in the Netherlands. BBB may not have polled nearly as well as they hoped but they did manage creditable 3rd places in many localities where NSC topped the poll. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 17:13:00 GMT
Noticeably, NSC topped the poll in a large proportion of eastern localities on the border with Germany, which first and foremost accounts for the CDA's collapse as this was once their heartland. The majority of the Dutch localities outside the capital of Amsterdam where PVV did not occupy 1st or 2nd place were in Utrecht, primarily those bordering the city itself. PVV sweeping Limburg, and the GL/PvdA alliance making less progress there than any other province, is a clear sign of the left's fundamental problems in the Netherlands. BBB may not have polled nearly as well as they hoped but they did manage creditable 3rd places in many localities where NSC topped the poll. Top 4 by province: Drenthe: 1.PVV - 26% 2.NSC - 16% 3.PvdA/GL - 14% 4.VVD - 12.6% Flevoland: 1.PVV - 26.6% 2.VVD - 14.8% 3.NSC - 12.2% 4.PvdA/GL - 11.8% Friesland: 1.PVV - 24.5% 2.NSC - 16.3% 3.PvdA - 14.6% 4.VVD - 11.2% Gelderland: 1.PVV - 22.2% 2.PvdA/GL - 15.4% 3.VVD - 14.4% 4.NSC - 13.2% Groningen: 1.PVV - 21.8% 2.PvdA/GL - 20.2% 3.NSC - 14.6% 4.VVD - 9.9% Limburg: 1.PVV - 33.3% 2.NSC - 14.1% 3.VVD - 13.8% 4.PvdA/GL - 13.5% North Brabant: 1.PVV - 26.9% 2.VVD - 18.1% 3.PvdA/GL - 13.1% 4.NSC - 12.7% North Holland: 1.PVV - 20.1% 2.PvdA/GL - 20.1% 3.VVD - 17.3% 4.NSC - 10.2% Overijssel: 1.PVV - 22% 2.NSC - 21.9% 3.PvdA/GL - 11.6% 4.VVD - 11.1% South Holland: 1.PVV - 24.4% 2.VVD - 16% 3.PvdA/GL - 14.7% 4.NSC - 10.9% Utrecht: 1.PvdA/GL - 20.5% 2.PVV - 17.6% 3.VVD - 16.2% 4.NSC - 10.5% Zeeland: 1.PVV - 23.9% 2.VVD - 14.7% 3.NSC - 12.1% 4.PvdA/GL - 11.1% Total: PVV First - 11 Second - 1 PvdA/GL First - 1 Second - 3 Third - 5 Forth - 3 VVD First - 0 Second - 4 Third - 4 Forth - 4 NSC First - 0 Second - 4 Third - 3 Forth - 5 |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 24, 2023 17:28:26 GMT
Another useful confirmation that the PvdA-GL combined list was very much that, and not PvdA+.
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 17:33:04 GMT
Another useful confirmation that the PvdA-GL combined list was very much that, and not PvdA+. GL-PvdA is probably the more accurate description, considering that the list received only received more than 15.5% in 3 provinces: Groningen, North Holland, and Utrecht. All of which aren’t exactly strongholds of the working class (if you treat the results in Groningen as mostly results from the city rather than the province itself)… |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 17:39:31 GMT
Even worse, Labour didn’t win a single municipality that SP won in 2017, but won every GL, and D66 2017 municipality…
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 18:08:18 GMT
Of the 32 Municipalities PvdA-GL won in 2023
14 voted D66 in 2021 (every single one except for Rotterdam)
18 voted VVD in 2021 (but a large majority went to PVV)
5 voted D66 in 2017 (every single D66 won municipality)
2 voted GL in 2017 (every single GL won municipality)
25 voted VVD in 2017 (the vast majority voted PVV)
All 7 municipalities that SP won in 2017 voted PVV in 2023…
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Post by johnloony on Nov 24, 2023 19:19:17 GMT
A bit like going from Solothurn to Romandie. You pass through Biel / Bienne and the French signs arrive, then down by Bielersee they disappear for a thin strip immediately bordering the lake and then come back again at the bottom. The north is mixed German/French, the south French, the west German and the east German, which is a bit counterintuitive. Other countries do give themselves a lot of unnecessary trouble by not simply speaking English, don't they? When my sister went to Brussels recently, she was in a café where the menu was on a big blackboard on the wall - it was all in English but not French or Flemish. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 19:57:50 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 24, 2023 21:20:26 GMT
That PVV score in Limburg. Blimey.
Looking at that and North Brabant... Is there any correlation there between Catholicism and PVV voting? Wilders himself being a lapsed Catholic from Limburg...
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Post by greenhert on Nov 24, 2023 21:57:01 GMT
That PVV score in Limburg. Blimey. Looking at that and North Brabant... Is there any correlation there between Catholicism and PVV voting? Wilders himself being a lapsed Catholic from Limburg... There is a correlation between Christianity and PVV voting, yes, but not a significant enough correlation between Roman Catholicism and PVV voting. PVV did worst in areas with high levels of irreligiousness, though. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,301 
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Post by maxque on Nov 24, 2023 23:12:11 GMT
The difficulty for any populist party entering into a coalition is that while they can get some of their more practical policies implemented, the more populist ones that don't recognise reality get vetoed by coalition partners. And so the populist party gets tainted by its adherence to the sort of traditional right wing policies that it was campaigning against. Staying out and staying pure will preserve a high level of support but will obviously not achieve much if the government has a majority. Supporting a minority government from the outside therefore has considerable advantages - the traditional power without responsibility. It should also be noted that exercise of power requires acquiescence to reality, and facts on the ground, and this can educate and moderate populist politicians, and occasionally their low information supporters. Yup. Particularly as there still some votes on the populist right to be swept up. If their parties are drawn into a closer relationship with the government they can be attacked when the time comes to add some distance, claiming that the government has had its chance. There is rumours it may be more about NATO and Rutte than anything else. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2023 0:41:20 GMT
Noticeably, NSC topped the poll in a large proportion of eastern localities on the border with Germany, which first and foremost accounts for the CDA's collapse as this was once their heartland. The majority of the Dutch localities outside the capital of Amsterdam where PVV did not occupy 1st or 2nd place were in Utrecht, primarily those bordering the city itself. PVV sweeping Limburg, and the GL/PvdA alliance making less progress there than any other province, is a clear sign of the left's fundamental problems in the Netherlands. BBB may not have polled nearly as well as they hoped but they did manage creditable 3rd places in many localities where NSC topped the poll. Hasn't Limburg always been the most right-wing province of the Netherlands, alongside the south in general? The pathetic performances in the northern three provinces are probably far more of a concern. Though, to be y, everything about this election is a concern for the left |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 25, 2023 2:38:01 GMT
Noticeably, NSC topped the poll in a large proportion of eastern localities on the border with Germany, which first and foremost accounts for the CDA's collapse as this was once their heartland. The majority of the Dutch localities outside the capital of Amsterdam where PVV did not occupy 1st or 2nd place were in Utrecht, primarily those bordering the city itself. PVV sweeping Limburg, and the GL/PvdA alliance making less progress there than any other province, is a clear sign of the left's fundamental problems in the Netherlands. BBB may not have polled nearly as well as they hoped but they did manage creditable 3rd places in many localities where NSC topped the poll. Hasn't Limburg always been the most right-wing province of the Netherlands, alongside the south in general? The pathetic performances in the northern three provinces are probably far more of a concern. Though, to be y, everything about this election is a concern for the left Technically speaking, the province with the longest streak of not voting for a left of centre party (until 2023) was actually Utrecht…. (Can’t find the last time the province voted for a left leaning party, but it was before 1972) |
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