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Post by greenhert on Jul 12, 2023 7:04:07 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 7:34:00 GMT
Can you call something a snap election when it will be held in 4 months time? fact: in the period since 1982 we’ve only had 4 different prime ministers. The last time a PM was succeeded by a member of the same party was 1982, when Lubbers followed Van Agt. The 2010 election was the only time a sitting PM was clearly defeated at the ballot box. Sitting PM’s parties are usually the biggest party after the election, or close to it (in 1981 Van Agt was only a seat or so behind the PvdA). A change comes when the PM retires, usually because his time has clearly gone. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 6:44:00 GMT
Big news: independent MP Pieter Omzigt will stand in the election with a new party. He was a long-standing CDA MP, but left the party. Partly because of problems with its general direction, partly because his critical attitude even towards cabinet members of his own party was not appreciated. He was a candidate for party leader, just losing out, with doubts about the counting, against `De Jonge. When DeJone stepped down to concentrate on fighting Corona as `Health secretary, Omzigt was passed over for Hoekstra, a decision he never really accepted.
Both CDA and BBB tried to get him on board, but he refused. Major difference with BBB is that he tends to be far more supportive of animal friendly policies (voting with Partij voor de Dieren) then van der Plas.
Big challenge now is to write an election manifesto and find the right candidates to avoid the shenanigans we witnessed with Lijst`Pim Fortuijn after 2004. His main policy aims are better government (with amongst other a different electoral system with a more regional element)) and income security.
Earlier polls indicated that he could win up to 40 seats, from all parties across the board. BBB and SP would be halved. He has stated he wants to grow slowly, and not start with that number. So he either has to enter a list with a limited number of candidates (accepting that his surplus will be divided amongst all other parties) or just enter the election in a selected number of kieskringen. NL is divided in 20 areas, where parties can enter different lists. Usually the first part of the list are National candidates, the second part locals who support the parties (for instance a well known actor or local politician).
His message potentially could be popular in both right and left wing quarters. He is essentially a right wing politician, but with a good record of fighting injustices. In the past he could to rely on voters in the country side to overcome the decision of the party bosses to give him a low position on the list. But, his position on the agriculture issue is not necessarily popular with farmers.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 8:15:56 GMT
The presence of Omzigt may also mean a shift in topics for the TV debates. Obviously Yesligoz wants to speak about asylum and migration, not about financial topics where her party’s record is atrocious and she has yet to prove that she has mastered the essentials of that topic. Omzigt is an accountant, with a forensic knowledge of many subjects.
Timmermans is the only candidate for the leadership of PvdA/`Gl. The right wing press are going all out to tear him down, and to be honest, he has some baggage. I’m not fan of either him or the cooperation with GL, but have resigned myself to voting for that list.
CDA has selected a complete unknown as leader, and so seem to have resigned themselves to the margins with about 5 seats at most. Several of their former MP’s (no household names) seem to have joined Omzigt, just as earlier a few” prominent “. members jumped on the BBB bandwagon.
Bij1 leader Siemons will not stand again. The party is split, mostly on racial lines, and without her a return to parliament seems impossible.
Denk leader Azarkan will also not return. Denk have selected as their new leader one of their 3 current MP’s. Since he is of neither Turkish nor Moroccan descent, I really wonder if they can keep their rather mixed coalition together.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 22, 2023 12:13:43 GMT
Bij1 leader Siemons will not stand again. The party is split, mostly on racial lines, and without her a return to parliament seems impossible. Brilliant. Ethnic splinter party from ethnic splinter party splinters on ethnic lines. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2023 15:12:07 GMT
It’s a very complicated world, with strict rules that not everyone understands, and a tendency to split, sometimes over tiny differences. A bit like the radical left and the fringe protestants.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2023 5:26:00 GMT
BBB leader Van der Plas has announced that she won’t be Prime Minister even when BBB will be the biggest party. She will stay in parliament (Omtzigt made a similar announcement)
Earlier she floated the idea that she would be a PM for national issues only, leaving things like the European Council to the Foreign Secretary. She was shocked to find out that that’s not allowed, and it would mean no Dutch presence at all. If I understand her correctly ( tbh I’m not that bothered trying to) her decision stems from her aversion to flying and wearing high heels. She was going to announce a heavyweight candidate for PM, but has failed to do so so far, which suggests to me that all is not well in farmer’s paradise.
Omtzigt’s intention stems from his wish to strengthen the position of parliament relative to the government. Laudable, but it’s not hard to see the potential for conflict.
We really are back to heady days of Lijst Pim Fortuijn, with stupid people acting stupid, but hilariously.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 24, 2023 1:03:11 GMT
BBB leader Van der Plas has announced that she won’t be Prime Minister even when BBB will be the biggest party. She will stay in parliament (Omtzigt made a similar announcement) Earlier she floated the idea that she would be a PM for national issues only, leaving things like the European Council to the Foreign Secretary. She was shocked to find out that that’s not allowed, and it would mean no Dutch presence at all. If I understand her correctly ( tbh I’m not that bothered trying to) her decision stems from her aversion to flying and wearing high heels. She was going to announce a heavyweight candidate for PM, but has failed to do so so far, which suggests to me that all is not well in farmer’s paradise. Omtzigt’s intention stems from his wish to strengthen the position of parliament relative to the government. Laudable, but it’s not hard to see the potential for conflict. We really are back to heady days of Lijst Pim Fortuijn, with stupid people acting stupid, but hilariously. Unbelievable, that 2 exMembers of NL's perennial governingParty have behaved so amateurishly. VVD seems now the option by default - but its female leader is also not incredibly solid policy-wise... |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2023 14:15:54 GMT
Former CDA leader and current Deputy PM and Foreign Secretary Hoekstra will succeed Timmermans in the European Commission.
The onslaught continues: the longest serving current member Van der Staay, leader of the SGP and the constitutional conscience of parliament, will step down after 25 years, aged only 55. His successor is 49. More than halve of the people leading their party into the 2021 election will not return after the next election, only 30 months later.
Longest serving MP after the election will be Wilders.
Speaker Bergkamp will not return. Her election was deemed a gesture of the VVD to D66, but she never managed to overcome doubts about her suitability. On sheer ability to lead debates, the best candidate to succeed her would be Martin Bosma, the PVV MP, but his political views make him unelectable. There is no clear other candidate, as there will be very few MP’s with experience left.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2023 5:01:21 GMT
Poll out today puts Omtzigt at 20%, PvdA/GL at 18% and VVD at 14%. BBB and PVV both at 9%. Big losses for D66 (5%) and CDA (3%).
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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2023 16:19:32 GMT
People unable to play nice with other people, unable to play nice with other people, episode 999
JA 21, one of three new parties to (so far) emerge from the Forum voor Democratie tree, has split. 6 prominent members, amongst them two MEP’s have left the party. Earlier two of three mp’s declared they would not stand again.
It seems they are not happy with the way the party is run internally, and the fact the party has been unable to formulate clear policy positions. The more immediate reason to leave now is the candidacy of Annabel Nanninga for the second place on the list for November. She’s a well known columnist, with tendency for public statements that are not very well thought out, but are popular in certain circles. Currently she holds three political positions: she leads her party in the Amsterdam City Council, Noord Holland Provincial council and the Eerste Kamer/Senate, even though her party forbids such a cumulation of position. She stated the party needed her in those positions. The dissidents nicely spell out that this apparently is no longer the case, as is she willing to give up the first two positions, and would be unable to be simultaneously be a member of both chambers of parliament.
As earlier Forum was seen as the acceptable alternative to the `PVV, for a time JA21 was the electoral alternative for those two looney tunes parties. But the party has failed to take off in the ,polls and did not spectacularly well in the elections we have had since 2021. In 2022 they nominated candidates for a limited number of city councils, gaining just 0.2% of the vote, in 2023 they won a grand total of 22 seats in the provincial councils (out of a total of 572). This led to 3 seats in de Eerste Kamer (out of 75) (the members are elected by members of the newly elected provincial councils, in a rather complicated procedure).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2023 13:38:55 GMT
BBB has announced Mona Keijzer as candidate PM. A former double losing candidate for the leadership of CDA, member of parliament and the only member of government ever to be sacked by the PM. Her criticsm of the Corona measures will make her popular in certain circles, but she’s hardly a heavyweight and is not very likely to be taking very serious as a potential PM. BBB is currently polling at 13 seats and Keijzer is unlikely to add significantly to that. The fortunes of BBB in the end will be more influenced by the pull of Omzigt or the absence of that.
Also BBB has gained three further mp’s, as two JA 21 MP’s and one long-standing PVV MP will join them.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2023 15:30:22 GMT
Keijzer was perennially at odds with her party, more so after her sacking. Lately fences seemed to have been mend, and she was appointed as a member of the team writing the manifesto for the 2024 European Elections.
A few weeks ago she resigned her membership unexpectedly, citing the fact the party chairman wanted to nominate a local mayor (famous for supporting the Corona measures) for the leadership. The local mayor denied he was a candidate, which of course tells us little. But, it seemed all a bit weird.
She probably will have some appeal, but compared to Omzigt her reputation is insignificant. It’s hard also to see her hold her own against someone with the experience of Timmermans.
The VVD draw manifesto makes clear they want to fight the election on the issue of migration.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2023 18:07:51 GMT
Speaking about new politics: one of the two JA 21 MP’s to join BBB (if I understand correctly) a guaranteed place on the list, Is Derk Jan Eppink, who has the distinction of standing for the European Parliament for 3 different parties, and, if he indeed is a candidate for BBB in November, a candidate for the Tweede Kamer for 2 more parties. He was elected in 2009 as an MEP for the Belgian party LDD and in 2019 for Forum (defecting to JA 21 in 2021). In 2014 he was a supporting candidate forVVD for the EP election. In 2021 he was elected to the Dutch parliament for JA 21 and now defects to BBB.
Note: although it’s not unknown for Dutch MP’s to leave their party, they usually either sit out their term as an independent or start their own party. It’s very uncommon for them to join an established party and then stand for that party at the next election.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 1, 2023 18:44:04 GMT
Speaking about new politics: one of the two JA 21 MP’s to join BBB (if I understand correctly) a guaranteed place on the list, Is Derk Jan Eppink, who has the distinction of standing for the European Parliament for 3 different parties, and, if he indeed is a candidate for BBB in November, a candidate for the Tweede Kamer for 2 more parties. He was elected in 2009 as an MEP for the Belgian party LDD and in 2019 for Forum (defecting to JA 21 in 2021). In 2014 he was a supporting candidate forVVD for the EP election. In 2021 he was elected to the Dutch parliament for JA 21 and now defects to BBB. Note: although it’s not unknown for Dutch MP’s to leave their party, they usually either sit out their term as an independent or start their own party. It’s very uncommon for them to join an established party and then stand for that party at the next election. And how many MEPs have been elected for more than one nation during their career? |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 1, 2023 18:52:06 GMT
Speaking about new politics: one of the two JA 21 MP’s to join BBB (if I understand correctly) a guaranteed place on the list, Is Derk Jan Eppink, who has the distinction of standing for the European Parliament for 3 different parties, and, if he indeed is a candidate for BBB in November, a candidate for the Tweede Kamer for 2 more parties. He was elected in 2009 as an MEP for the Belgian party LDD and in 2019 for Forum (defecting to JA 21 in 2021). In 2014 he was a supporting candidate forVVD for the EP election. In 2021 he was elected to the Dutch parliament for JA 21 and now defects to BBB. Note: although it’s not unknown for Dutch MP’s to leave their party, they usually either sit out their term as an independent or start their own party. It’s very uncommon for them to join an established party and then stand for that party at the next election. And how many MEPs have been elected for more than one nation during their career? Daniel Cohn-Bendit managed it for France and Germany. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 1, 2023 23:33:46 GMT
And how many MEPs have been elected for more than one nation during their career? Daniel Cohn-Bendit managed it for France and Germany. Minica Frassoni did it for Belgium and Italy and former rally driver Ari Vatanen did it for France and Finland. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 3, 2023 21:07:47 GMT
Speaking about new politics: one of the two JA 21 MP’s to join BBB (if I understand correctly) a guaranteed place on the list, Is Derk Jan Eppink, who has the distinction of standing for the European Parliament for 3 different parties, and, if he indeed is a candidate for BBB in November, a candidate for the Tweede Kamer for 2 more parties. He was elected in 2009 as an MEP for the Belgian party LDD and in 2019 for Forum (defecting to JA 21 in 2021). In 2014 he was a supporting candidate forVVD for the EP election. In 2021 he was elected to the Dutch parliament for JA 21 and now defects to BBB. Note: although it’s not unknown for Dutch MP’s to leave their party, they usually either sit out their term as an independent or start their own party. It’s very uncommon for them to join an established party and then stand for that party at the next election. LDD was another one of those bizarre splinters from the Flemish Liberals, this one being focused on Jean-Marie Dedecker, the former national judo coach. Celebrity candidates don't seem as common in Belgium as they were. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2023 6:50:40 GMT
In the category bizarre: Van der Plas now claims that the media is wrong in classifying Keijzer as BBB’s candidate for PM, she’s just number 2 on the list. But, if BBB is asked to deliver the PM, Keijzer will be asked to fill that position. You probably have to be a right wing populist to understand how that means that Keijzer is not the candidate. Given the current polls, her changes are luckily quite slim. The order seems to be: Omzigt, VVD, PvdA/GL (the Timmermans effect to seem to have faded somewhat after unrelenting right wing bollocking) with PVV and BBB far behind. But all to play for, the campaign hasn’t started yet and huge movements of voters in the last few days of the campaign is a common occurrence.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 7, 2023 17:33:35 GMT
In the category bizarre: Van der Plas now claims that the media is wrong in classifying Keijzer as BBB’s candidate for PM, she’s just number 2 on the list. But, if BBB is asked to deliver the PM, Keijzer will be asked to fill that position. You probably have to be a right wing populist to understand how that means that Keijzer is not the candidate. Given the current polls, her changes are luckily quite slim. The order seems to be: Omzigt, VVD, PvdA/GL (the Timmermans effect to seem to have faded somewhat after unrelenting right wing bollocking) with PVV and BBB far behind. But all to play for, the campaign hasn’t started yet and huge movements of voters in the last few days of the campaign is a common occurrence. As written earlier, both exCDAers act in a remarkably unprofessional way. Then claims, that Omzigt has had mental problems. My money remains on VVD, although their leader is said to be also not incredibly firm. |
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