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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2023 18:16:36 GMT
Which will be grist to the mill of those who oppose PR electoral systems. Just over the border - the current Belgian PM is from the 5th-largest party, and his predecessor from the sixth-largest! Actually, the winning party hasn't provided a PM since Yves Leterme's second cabinet in 2009. Though Belgium is a bit weird |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2023 18:17:12 GMT
(in this case because of the language split of its parties, but that sentence works in a general sense as well)
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Post by aargauer on Nov 22, 2023 18:57:04 GMT
Unsurprisingly, my options if I were Dutch are VVD, BBB, NSC, and JA21. (With VVD being the pretty clear favourite) Mine is Denk 😂. In reality I'd vote BVNL. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2023 19:27:58 GMT
Mine is GL/PvdA. In reality I genuinely have no idea how I'd vote, but probably the join list
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 22, 2023 19:33:17 GMT
(in this case because of the language split of its parties, but that sentence works in a general sense as well) It says something about the surreal nature of Belgium that the two Christian Democratic parties haven't formed a government together for nearly ten years, because they don't like each other. Then again, the Francophone version is now trying to claim it isn't Christian Democratic after all, and has gone for that turquoise makeover that the ÖVP started and seems to be popular amongst the European centre-right now. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2023 19:43:30 GMT
(in this case because of the language split of its parties, but that sentence works in a general sense as well) It says something about the surreal nature of Belgium that the two Christian Democratic parties haven't formed a government together for nearly ten years, because they don't like each other. Then again, the Francophone version is now trying to claim it isn't Christian Democratic after all, and has gone for that turquoise makeover that the ÖVP started and seems to be popular amongst the European centre-right now. The thing I found really bizarre when I was in Belgium recently was that I didn't hear french in Flanders or dutch in Wallonia once. No commuters, no holidaymakers, no daytrippers, nothing. That, and how the exclusively (outside Brussels) monolingual rail announcements meant you'd get on a train going to Anvers and end up in Antwerpen |
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Post by aargauer on Nov 22, 2023 19:52:26 GMT
It says something about the surreal nature of Belgium that the two Christian Democratic parties haven't formed a government together for nearly ten years, because they don't like each other. Then again, the Francophone version is now trying to claim it isn't Christian Democratic after all, and has gone for that turquoise makeover that the ÖVP started and seems to be popular amongst the European centre-right now. The thing I found really bizarre when I was in Belgium recently was that I didn't hear french in Flanders or dutch in Wallonia once. No commuters, no holidaymakers, no daytrippers, nothing. That, and how the exclusively (outside Brussels) monolingual rail announcements meant you'd get on a train going to Anvers and end up in Antwerpen That's true here too. I hear pretty much every European language going other than French. Because the French go to Romandie, whereas for most other people German speaking Switzerland is more attractive. So we have disproportionately few French speakers migrate. Certainly I regularly hear all of Portuguese, Serbian-Bosnian-Croatian-Macedonian, what I think is Albanian, Turkish, English, other Germanic languages more than French. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 22, 2023 20:00:16 GMT
It says something about the surreal nature of Belgium that the two Christian Democratic parties haven't formed a government together for nearly ten years, because they don't like each other. Then again, the Francophone version is now trying to claim it isn't Christian Democratic after all, and has gone for that turquoise makeover that the ÖVP started and seems to be popular amongst the European centre-right now. The thing I found really bizarre when I was in Belgium recently was that I didn't hear french in Flanders or dutch in Wallonia once. No commuters, no holidaymakers, no daytrippers, nothing. That, and how the exclusively (outside Brussels) monolingual rail announcements meant you'd get on a train going to Anvers and end up in Antwerpen Yeah, you do hear French on the coast a bit but it tends to be from actual French not Francophone Belgians. Dutch in Wallonia... Not sure I've ever heard it either. The train from Brussels to Eupen is mad. It goes from bilingual, to Dutch only, back to French only, to French and German. Even weirder is the drive from Brussels towards Waremme, which we do a few times a year. The entire Brussels Ring is in Flanders, so all the signs and dot matrices are just in Dutch. Then you head into Walloon Brabant, so back into French. Then you reach a services, where the end of it is back into Vlaams Brabant and so into Dutch - for about 300 yards, when it goes back into Liège and therefore back into French. Bizarre. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 20:10:24 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 20:13:25 GMT
9 seat margin between PVV (35) and PvdA/GL (26), a 12 seat margin with VVD (23), and a 15 seat margin with NSC (20). Majority needed: 76 PVV+VVD+NSC = 78 PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB= 85 |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 20:15:38 GMT
Incredible. And all just, because Wilders was this time not boycotting the media. Ipsos overestimates the left parties by usually 1-2 seats. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 20:21:57 GMT
Full Exit poll results: Ipsos
PVV - 35
PvdA/GL - 26
VVD - 23
NSC - 20
D66 - 10
BBB - 7
CDA - 5
SP - 5
PvdD - 4
FvD - 3
SGP - 3
CU - 3
Volt - 2
Denk - 2
JA21 - 1
50Plus - 1
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 20:26:16 GMT
According to Peil.nl 1/4 of VVD-voters are considering to switch to PVV (on par with NSC and less than BBB & FvV), so they could finally drop a lot. But my money has also been - since the beginning - on wealthy VVD and their pretty leader. How many voters from each party are considering PvdA? Is now not so urgent to know anymore, of course - but to obey to Your wish: They polled 29% of PvdD, 27% of SP, 22% of D'66, 14% of Volt - so all together within the small left bubble of 25%. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 22, 2023 20:26:46 GMT
Not many countries in which TV debates have such a provably huge impact on electoral outcomes.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 20:29:46 GMT
9 seat margin between PVV (35) and PvdA/GL (26), a 12 seat margin with VVD (23), and a 15 seat margin with NSC (20). Majority needed: 76 PVV+VVD+NSC = 78 PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB= 85 Omtzigt has ruled out a coalition with PVV (iirc). Though with such a "huge" (for Dutch levels) lead it could be difficult to ignore Wilders entirely. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 20:30:28 GMT
How many voters from each party are considering PvdA? Is now not so urgent to know anymore, of course - but to obey to Your wish: They polled 29% of PvdD, 27% of SP, 22% of D'66, 14% of Volt - so all together within the small left bubble of 25%. If you include CU and D66 as left of centre, and assume that Ipsos have left of centre parties 2 seats above the actual result, then the Dutch left (PvdA+GL+D66+SP+PvdD+CU+Volt+Denk) won 50 seats, aka 1/3… |
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Post by iain on Nov 22, 2023 20:31:46 GMT
Full Exit poll results: Ipsos PVV - 35 PvdA/GL - 26 VVD - 23 NSC - 20 D66 - 10 BBB - 7 CDA - 5 SP - 5 PvdD - 4 FvD - 3 SGP - 3 CU - 3 Volt - 2 Denk - 2 JA21 - 1 50Plus - 1 Tough to see what government gets formed out of that unless Omtzigt (NSC) changes his mind on the PVV, who he promised to keep out of power. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 20:32:54 GMT
Is now not so urgent to know anymore, of course - but to obey to Your wish: They polled 29% of PvdD, 27% of SP, 22% of D'66, 14% of Volt - so all together within the small left bubble of 25%. If you include CU and D66 as left of centre, and assume that Ipsos have left of centre parties 2 seats above the actual result, then the Dutch left (PvdA+GL+D66+SP+PvdD+CU+Volt+Denk) won 50 seats, aka 1/3…  |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 20:38:32 GMT
If you include CU and D66 as left of centre, and assume that Ipsos have left of centre parties 2 seats above the actual result, then the Dutch left (PvdA+GL+D66+SP+PvdD+CU+Volt+Denk) won 50 seats, aka 1/3… You seem to have the left of centre parties on ~56 rather than the projected 52. 😅 |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 20:41:57 GMT
You seem to have the left of centre parties on ~56 rather than the projected 52. 😅 It was made - not by me! - few days ago, thus taking the middle of the opinionPolls. |
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