Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 13:41:56 GMT
Omtzigt has had a burn out, and probably made the right call that becoming PM would be bad for his health.
Bizarre 2: current Partij van de Dieren leader Esther Ouwehand will not be nominated for the new list, because of signals of integrity problems. An independent commission will be formed to investigate, but the party’s board will nominate a different candidate to lead the list next week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 16:45:14 GMT
Ouwehand has issued a statement denying she was informed about any complaints against her. Apparently she sent a letter to her party’s board yesterday, heavily criticizing the lack of progress in getting the party functioning correctly and the interference from the board in the functioning of locally elected politicians. Party members are revolting and want Ouwehand to remain leader. For a moment I suspected Ouwehand was caught eating some meat, but it seems that is just an old-fashioned power struggle between the elected professional politicians and the amateurs that run the parties. Same old, same old.
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 5, 2023 10:27:30 GMT
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 5, 2023 10:51:54 GMT
Unsurprisingly, my options if I were Dutch are VVD, BBB, NSC, and JA21. (With VVD being the pretty clear favourite) |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 5, 2023 11:49:25 GMT
Ridiculous. It was sending me to the Animals and the Greens (or BIJ, whatever that is). Just because I have a low income, it assumes I must be a weirdo lefty. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 19, 2023 15:55:34 GMT
I’m starting to think that the race has turned into a 4-way one now…
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Post by greenhert on Nov 19, 2023 16:14:11 GMT
I’m starting to think that the race has turned into a 4-way one now… The most recent polls affirm your belief-the majority show a difference of less than 10 seats between the poll-topper and the 4th placed party, although in almost every recent Dutch poll the party predicted to be the poll-topper is either VVD or NSC (New Social Contract). |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 19, 2023 16:18:36 GMT
I’m starting to think that the race has turned into a 4-way one now… The most recent polls affirm your belief-the majority show a difference of less than 10 seats between the poll-topper and the 4th placed party, although in almost every recent Dutch poll the party predicted to be the poll-topper is either VVD or NSC (New Social Contract). I think NSC peaked too soon, so I’ll give VVD the edge (unless Wilders sweeps undecided right-leaning voters or PvdA manages to completely drain D66). |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 19, 2023 18:09:34 GMT
I’m starting to think that the race has turned into a 4-way one now… Wilders did very well in the recent debate, noticeably managing to attack Timmermans from the left on healthcare. The Labour/Green Left alliance is still mostly uniting the left, but the link up with the Green Left means Labour are being defined more by environmental/immigration policies than by popular economic ones (not that Labour were defined by the latter either tbf), which means they aren’t winning over centrist voters or being viewed as coalitionable by right leaning voters. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 21, 2023 18:11:23 GMT
Looks like the race is back to a 3 way battle, with Wilders replacing Omtzigt…
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 2:38:30 GMT
OpinionPolls (only those from 2023):   Caveat - my try to classify the parties on 2 dimensions is obviously problematic: NSC is to some extent part of MidRight, D66&Volt are on certain issues the farLeft (and SGP the hardRight) aso. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 2:45:50 GMT
Looks like the race is back to a 3 way battle, with Wilders replacing Omtzigt… Could even be just a duel in the end: The rise of PVV incl. sensationalist mediaCoverage will certainly let Miss Woke panic today, that "the fascist is taking over power" (in NL, where PVV will probably not get 20%, especially hilarious...) and flock (back) to GL&PvdA despite all disSatisFaction with Timmermans. Pollsters mean, that PVV might even overperform more than GL&PvdA from tactical voting, as VVD&BBB have more unsafe voters than the other (mid)left parties. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 4:10:11 GMT
Looks like the race is back to a 3 way battle, with Wilders replacing Omtzigt… Could even be just a duel in the end: The rise of PVV incl. sensationalist mediaCoverage will certainly let Miss Woke panic today, that "the fascist is taking over power" (in NL, where PVV will probably not get 20%, especially hilarious...) and flock (back) to GL&PvdA despite all disSatisFaction with Timmermans. Pollsters mean, that PVV might even overperform more than GL&PvdA from tactical voting, as VVD&BBB have more unsafe voters than the other (mid)left parties. The VVD vote actually seems stable, it’s the rest of the parties that are collapsing… Even if PvdA finished first, I personally doubt anyone other than Dilan Yeşilgöz is going to become PM… |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 22, 2023 8:38:24 GMT
What time do polls close in the Netherlands?
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 10:21:13 GMT
Could even be just a duel in the end: The rise of PVV incl. sensationalist mediaCoverage will certainly let Miss Woke panic today, that "the fascist is taking over power" (in NL, where PVV will probably not get 20%, especially hilarious...) and flock (back) to GL&PvdA despite all disSatisFaction with Timmermans. Pollsters mean, that PVV might even overperform more than GL&PvdA from tactical voting, as VVD&BBB have more unsafe voters than the other (mid)left parties. The VVD vote actually seems stable, it’s the rest of the parties that are collapsing… Even if PvdA finished first, I personally doubt anyone other than Dilan Yeşilgöz is going to become PM… According to Peil.nl 1/4 of VVD-voters are considering to switch to PVV (on par with NSC and less than BBB & FvV), so they could finally drop a lot. But my money has also been - since the beginning - on wealthy VVD and their pretty leader. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 22, 2023 10:21:31 GMT
What time do polls close in the Netherlands? 21.00 MET. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 11:46:39 GMT
The VVD vote actually seems stable, it’s the rest of the parties that are collapsing… Even if PvdA finished first, I personally doubt anyone other than Dilan Yeşilgöz is going to become PM… According to Peil.nl 1/4 of VVD-voters are considering to switch to PVV (on par with NSC and less than BBB & FvV), so they could finally drop a lot. But my money has also been - since the beginning - on wealthy VVD and their pretty leader. Timmermans probably doesn’t have the numbers to even be in a coalition, and Wilders doesn’t have the numbers (even if he finishes with the most seats) to be PM, so 3rd place VVD seems like the obvious choice for PM. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 22, 2023 11:47:47 GMT
The VVD vote actually seems stable, it’s the rest of the parties that are collapsing… Even if PvdA finished first, I personally doubt anyone other than Dilan Yeşilgöz is going to become PM… According to Peil.nl 1/4 of VVD-voters are considering to switch to PVV (on par with NSC and less than BBB & FvV), so they could finally drop a lot. But my money has also been - since the beginning - on wealthy VVD and their pretty leader. How many voters from each party are considering PvdA? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2023 12:39:43 GMT
According to Peil.nl 1/4 of VVD-voters are considering to switch to PVV (on par with NSC and less than BBB & FvV), so they could finally drop a lot. But my money has also been - since the beginning - on wealthy VVD and their pretty leader. Timmermans probably doesn’t have the numbers to even be in a coalition, and Wilders doesn’t have then numbers (even if he finishes with the most seats) to be PM, so 3rd place VVD seems like the obvious choice for PM.Which will be grist to the mill of those who oppose PR electoral systems. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 22, 2023 13:23:18 GMT
Timmermans probably doesn’t have the numbers to even be in a coalition, and Wilders doesn’t have then numbers (even if he finishes with the most seats) to be PM, so 3rd place VVD seems like the obvious choice for PM.Which will be grist to the mill of those who oppose PR electoral systems. Just over the border - the current Belgian PM is from the 5th-largest party, and his predecessor from the sixth-largest! Actually, the winning party hasn't provided a PM since Yves Leterme's second cabinet in 2009. |
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