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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2023 23:17:27 GMT
Another interesting and surprising but probably not meaningful thing I noticed, the PVV seemed to take quite a chunk of the SGP vote (they even lost over 6% in Urk, a corner of the Netherlands based in an alt history where the puritans ended up crossing the North Sea rather than the Atlantic).
They're both right-wing parties but the SGP vote is extremely loyal, and even when it isn't tends to prefer explicitly Christian parties to defect to
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 23, 2023 23:30:00 GMT
There was an article in the FT with talking heads from Amsterdam wondering why the rest of the country didn't vote like it did.
Apart from telling us a lot about Amsterdammers, they clearly hadn't wondered why Rotterdam hadn't voted like Amsterdam. Rotterdam is, whilst a lot of fun, very dicey and rougher than a lot of Amsterdam because it doesn't have the hipster edge.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2023 23:34:42 GMT
There was an article in the FT with talking heads from Amsterdam wondering why the rest of the country didn't vote like it did. Apart from telling us a lot about Amsterdammers, they clearly hadn't wondered why Rotterdam hadn't voted like Amsterdam. Rotterdam is, whilst a lot of fun, very dicey and rougher than a lot of Amsterdam because it doesn't have the hipster edge. Given it's small size, the Netherlands is an extremely culturally divided country. Bits of Amsterdam aren't exactly the most upmarket areas of Europe you'll find.... But also, even though places like Leiden, Utrecht, Nijmegen, Groningen might vote like Amsterdam they often do so for entirely different reasons. There is big, big resentment towards Amsterdam outside the Randstad, but also towards foreigners who visit the Randstad and assume their experiences apply to the whole country. It is to my lasting regret that I didn't get the chance to live and study in the Netherlands because it really is a fascinating country |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 24, 2023 0:14:43 GMT
There was an article in the FT with talking heads from Amsterdam wondering why the rest of the country didn't vote like it did. Apart from telling us a lot about Amsterdammers, they clearly hadn't wondered why Rotterdam hadn't voted like Amsterdam. Rotterdam is, whilst a lot of fun, very dicey and rougher than a lot of Amsterdam because it doesn't have the hipster edge. Although Rotterdam has in the recent past also been trending to the left. But yes, that mentality is exactly, how the Amsterdammers are seen by the rest. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 24, 2023 0:19:47 GMT
Although CALVINism had really nothing to do with early Christianity, a certain similarity with Judaism cannot be denied. (deMADARIAGA pointed out, that the Jews preferred to live with European nations, with which they had most in common: The Spaniards and the Germans.)
Now in both countries a sharp trend to the right.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Nov 24, 2023 2:40:12 GMT
There was an article in the FT with talking heads from Amsterdam wondering why the rest of the country didn't vote like it did. Apart from telling us a lot about Amsterdammers, they clearly hadn't wondered why Rotterdam hadn't voted like Amsterdam. Rotterdam is, whilst a lot of fun, very dicey and rougher than a lot of Amsterdam because it doesn't have the hipster edge. The triumph (in plurality terms) of the PVV has made me wonder what the election map of the Netherlands would look like in terms of FPTP (a) as it actually voted (b) as it would have voted if Netherlands actually used FPTP in real life. Presumably (b) would have evolved a main right-wing party (a larger and more moderate version of the PVV plus liberals) and a main left-wing party (Labour sort-of). Possibly with some idiosyncratic local clusters of inner-city Greens and countryside religious weirdo parties. Edit: I found a map of local pluralities, which approximately confirms my thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/181x5jn/netherlands_2023_election_map_by_biggest_party/ |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 24, 2023 4:48:33 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 5:37:23 GMT
There was an article in the FT with talking heads from Amsterdam wondering why the rest of the country didn't vote like it did. Apart from telling us a lot about Amsterdammers, they clearly hadn't wondered why Rotterdam hadn't voted like Amsterdam. Rotterdam is, whilst a lot of fun, very dicey and rougher than a lot of Amsterdam because it doesn't have the hipster edge. The triumph (in plurality terms) of the PVV has made me wonder what the election map of the Netherlands would look like in terms of FPTP (a) as it actually voted (b) as it would have voted if Netherlands actually used FPTP in real life. Presumably (b) would have evolved a main right-wing party (a larger and more moderate version of the PVV plus liberals) and a main left-wing party (Labour sort-of). Possibly with some idiosyncratic local clusters of inner-city Greens and countryside religious weirdo parties. Edit: I found a map of local pluralities, which approximately confirms my thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/181x5jn/netherlands_2023_election_map_by_biggest_party/ Interactive Map - www.trouw.nl/verkiezingen/tweede-kamerverkiezingen-2023-hoe-is-er-gestemd-in-uw-gemeente~be91966c/?referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F |
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Post by nyx on Nov 24, 2023 5:52:41 GMT
I think a coalition with PVV in it is basically inevitable at this point- the thing I'm wondering is whether the other parties might insist on someone who isn't Wilders (presumably Omtzigt) as PM as one of the conditions for entering coalition. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 24, 2023 6:10:47 GMT
Indeed. While in the StemWijzer NSC was centrist centrists:  Peil.nl came up in October with this:  And according to the exitPoll of Ipsos Omtzigt won mainly (mid)right voters over:  |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 24, 2023 7:26:37 GMT
There was an article in the FT with talking heads from Amsterdam wondering why the rest of the country didn't vote like it did. Apart from telling us a lot about Amsterdammers, they clearly hadn't wondered why Rotterdam hadn't voted like Amsterdam. Rotterdam is, whilst a lot of fun, very dicey and rougher than a lot of Amsterdam because it doesn't have the hipster edge. The triumph (in plurality terms) of the PVV has made me wonder what the election map of the Netherlands would look like in terms of FPTP (a) as it actually voted (b) as it would have voted if Netherlands actually used FPTP in real life. Presumably (b) would have evolved a main right-wing party (a larger and more moderate version of the PVV plus liberals) and a main left-wing party (Labour sort-of). Possibly with some idiosyncratic local clusters of inner-city Greens and countryside religious weirdo parties. Edit: I found a map of local pluralities, which approximately confirms my thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/181x5jn/netherlands_2023_election_map_by_biggest_party/ An FPP system would have probably kept the sectional pillar system in place as national religious minorities are mainly local majorities. Northern Ireland (and to a far less representative extent Germany) suggests that this would have both survived and somewhat slowed secularisation. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 24, 2023 7:30:34 GMT
I think a coalition with PVV in it is basically inevitable at this point- the thing I'm wondering is whether the other parties might insist on someone who isn't Wilders (presumably Omtzigt) as PM as one of the conditions for entering coalition. Wilders is saying he wants the PVV near government, but is he saying with any fervour he wants to be PM? |
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Post by aargauer on Nov 24, 2023 8:27:18 GMT
The thing I found really bizarre when I was in Belgium recently was that I didn't hear french in Flanders or dutch in Wallonia once. No commuters, no holidaymakers, no daytrippers, nothing. That, and how the exclusively (outside Brussels) monolingual rail announcements meant you'd get on a train going to Anvers and end up in Antwerpen Yeah, you do hear French on the coast a bit but it tends to be from actual French not Francophone Belgians. Dutch in Wallonia... Not sure I've ever heard it either. The train from Brussels to Eupen is mad. It goes from bilingual, to Dutch only, back to French only, to French and German. Even weirder is the drive from Brussels towards Waremme, which we do a few times a year. The entire Brussels Ring is in Flanders, so all the signs and dot matrices are just in Dutch. Then you head into Walloon Brabant, so back into French. Then you reach a services, where the end of it is back into Vlaams Brabant and so into Dutch - for about 300 yards, when it goes back into Liège and therefore back into French. Bizarre. A bit like going from Solothurn to Romandie. You pass through Biel / Bienne and the French signs arrive, then down by Bielersee they disappear for a thin strip immediately bordering the lake and then come back again at the bottom. The north is mixed German/French, the south French, the west German and the east German, which is a bit counterintuitive. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Nov 24, 2023 9:34:33 GMT
Peil.nl came up in October with this: What does that graphic show? My Dutch isn’t good enough to make sense of it. |
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Post by ibfc on Nov 24, 2023 9:46:04 GMT
Peil.nl came up in October with this: What does that graphic show? My Dutch isn’t good enough to make sense of it. Approval for a hypothetical PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB coalition among supporters of various parties and the overall electorate. Supporters of all four parties support this arrangement. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 24, 2023 10:47:12 GMT
Yeah, you do hear French on the coast a bit but it tends to be from actual French not Francophone Belgians. Dutch in Wallonia... Not sure I've ever heard it either. The train from Brussels to Eupen is mad. It goes from bilingual, to Dutch only, back to French only, to French and German. Even weirder is the drive from Brussels towards Waremme, which we do a few times a year. The entire Brussels Ring is in Flanders, so all the signs and dot matrices are just in Dutch. Then you head into Walloon Brabant, so back into French. Then you reach a services, where the end of it is back into Vlaams Brabant and so into Dutch - for about 300 yards, when it goes back into Liège and therefore back into French. Bizarre. A bit like going from Solothurn to Romandie. You pass through Biel / Bienne and the French signs arrive, then down by Bielersee they disappear for a thin strip immediately bordering the lake and then come back again at the bottom. The north is mixed German/French, the south French, the west German and the east German, which is a bit counterintuitive. The strangest one for me was travelling from central Strasbourg to Kehl Bahnhof on the Strasbourg tramway last year. The announcements not only went from monolingually French to monolingually German after we had passed the last tram stop in France, but also there was an announcement that face masks were now mandatory thanks to the different laws regarding them in Germany. Not a single passenger obeyed. |
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Post by islington on Nov 24, 2023 12:50:38 GMT
Yeah, you do hear French on the coast a bit but it tends to be from actual French not Francophone Belgians. Dutch in Wallonia... Not sure I've ever heard it either. The train from Brussels to Eupen is mad. It goes from bilingual, to Dutch only, back to French only, to French and German. Even weirder is the drive from Brussels towards Waremme, which we do a few times a year. The entire Brussels Ring is in Flanders, so all the signs and dot matrices are just in Dutch. Then you head into Walloon Brabant, so back into French. Then you reach a services, where the end of it is back into Vlaams Brabant and so into Dutch - for about 300 yards, when it goes back into Liège and therefore back into French. Bizarre. A bit like going from Solothurn to Romandie. You pass through Biel / Bienne and the French signs arrive, then down by Bielersee they disappear for a thin strip immediately bordering the lake and then come back again at the bottom. The north is mixed German/French, the south French, the west German and the east German, which is a bit counterintuitive. Other countries do give themselves a lot of unnecessary trouble by not simply speaking English, don't they? |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 13:25:38 GMT
It looks like VVD doesn’t want to be inside the cabinet but is open to providing support to the government from the outside. A rather strange position in my opinion, unless they expect the new government to be statist on the economy.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 24, 2023 14:06:50 GMT
It looks like VVD doesn’t want to be inside the cabinet but is open to providing support to the government from the outside. A rather strange position in my opinion, unless they expect the new government to be statist on the economy. The difficulty for any populist party entering into a coalition is that while they can get some of their more practical policies implemented, the more populist ones that don't recognise reality get vetoed by coalition partners. And so the populist party gets tainted by its adherence to the sort of traditional right wing policies that it was campaigning against. Staying out and staying pure will preserve a high level of support but will obviously not achieve much if the government has a majority. Supporting a minority government from the outside therefore has considerable advantages - the traditional power without responsibility. It should also be noted that exercise of power requires acquiescence to reality, and facts on the ground, and this can educate and moderate populist politicians, and occasionally their low information supporters. |
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Post by rcronald on Nov 24, 2023 14:10:04 GMT
It looks like VVD doesn’t want to be inside the cabinet but is open to providing support to the government from the outside. A rather strange position in my opinion, unless they expect the new government to be statist on the economy. The difficulty for any populist party entering into a coalition is that while they can get some of their more practical policies implemented, the more populist ones that don't recognise reality get vetoed by coalition partners. And so the populist party gets tainted by its adherence to the sort of traditional right wing policies that it was campaigning against. Staying out and staying pure will preserve a high level of support but will obviously not achieve much if the government has a majority. Supporting a minority government from the outside therefore has considerable advantages - the traditional power without responsibility. It should also be noted that exercise of power requires acquiescence to reality, and facts on the ground, and this can educate and moderate populist politicians, and occasionally their low information supporters. Wilders seems more than willing to drop some of his more extreme policies. I think she’s making a mistake because it probably gives statist parties who are in opposition more of a say on economic policy (healthcare is a perfect example), especially since PVV,BBB, and NSC aren’t very right wing on most economic issues. |
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