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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2023 8:17:12 GMT
Looking at the results in more detail, the PvdA should be really worried. The results in their three working class northern stronghold's, Frisia, Groningen and Drenthe, were poor. The only one with an increase of more the 2% was Groningen, and that's entirely down to the city of Groningen itself which is partly defined by its university.
On the other hand their big increases have been in university cities like Leiden, Utrecht, Wageningen (the only exception is Nijmegen - I suspect that, a bit like Liverpool, Havana aan de Waal has a reputation as a left-wing city that helps push it further left, but I'm just guessing).
All of which suggests:
1. Their result was driven by the GL, not PvdA
2. They have failed to reconnect with their working class former voters (De Rode Muur, anyone?)
3. The Dutch public still have some serious trust issues with their traditional centre-left, and a proper recovery is a long way off
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2023 8:18:04 GMT
Why’s NSC so strong in that pocket on the Western border? I believe that's where Omtzigt is from (specifically Enschede) |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 23, 2023 8:34:37 GMT
Looking at the results in more detail, the PvdA should be really worried. The results in their three working class northern stronghold's, Frisia, Groningen and Drenthe, were poor. The only one with an increase of more the 2% was Groningen, and that's entirely down to the city of Groningen itself which is partly defined by its university. On the other hand their big increases have been in university cities like Leiden, Utrecht, Wageningen (the only exception is Nijmegen - I suspect that, a bit like Liverpool, Havana aan de Waal has a reputation as a left-wing city that helps push it further left, but I'm just guessing). All of which suggests: 1. Their result was driven by the GL, not PvdA 2. They have failed to reconnect with their working class former voters (De Rode Muur, anyone?) 3. The Dutch public still have some serious trust issues with their traditional centre-left, and a proper recovery is a long way off Lets be honest, Timmermans is arguably a better fit with GL than he is with PvdA despite him being a PvdA member. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 23, 2023 11:08:16 GMT
Record-low for midLeft:  What has to do with the trends observable in most countries, i.e. formal education:  According to pollster I&O-ReSearch PVV has increased over time its share especially among those with medium&low formal education (where it had allWays been stronger) - looks like even "the liberal Netherlands" are not so impressed by wokeness... |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 23, 2023 11:17:40 GMT
Why’s NSC so strong in that pocket on the Western border? I believe that's where Omtzigt is from (specifically Enschede) Yes, that's a big reason: It was in debate, that he could run only in OverIjssel and last time he ran there successfully on preferenceVotes. Yet, it's additionally CDA-heartLand (the eastern part is/was catholic diaSpora), so even, when living somewhere else, he would have done there very well. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 23, 2023 11:32:18 GMT
Wilders seems to be asserting that he wants to be part of any government more strongly than he has in the past.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 23, 2023 11:51:57 GMT
This is the second election in a row in which the combined score of the left parties was under a quarter of the vote (D66, Volt and Denk cannot be realistically counted as parties of the left, unless the term is redefined far away from its usual meaning in European countries). As noted above, there was also no obvious sign of a serious recovery in those places where the collapse over the past decade has been particularly severe. This should prompt serious reflection at the very least, but I suspect that it won't.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 23, 2023 11:52:25 GMT
Looking at the results in more detail, the PvdA should be really worried. The results in their three working class northern stronghold's, Frisia, Groningen and Drenthe, were poor. The only one with an increase of more the 2% was Groningen, and that's entirely down to the city of Groningen itself which is partly defined by its university. On the other hand their big increases have been in university cities like Leiden, Utrecht, Wageningen (the only exception is Nijmegen - I suspect that, a bit like Liverpool, Havana aan de Waal has a reputation as a left-wing city that helps push it further left, but I'm just guessing). All of which suggests: 1. Their result was driven by the GL, not PvdA 2. They have failed to reconnect with their working class former voters (De Rode Muur, anyone?) 3. The Dutch public still have some serious trust issues with their traditional centre-left, and a proper recovery is a long way off Lets be honest, Timmermans is arguably a better fit with GL than he is with PvdA despite him being a PvdA member. He saved the PvdA from possible electoral extinction, but the flip side of that was there always being an obvious ceiling to his support. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 23, 2023 12:28:22 GMT
Looking at the results in more detail, the PvdA should be really worried. The results in their three working class northern stronghold's, Frisia, Groningen and Drenthe, were poor. The only one with an increase of more the 2% was Groningen, and that's entirely down to the city of Groningen itself which is partly defined by its university. On the other hand their big increases have been in university cities like Leiden, Utrecht, Wageningen (the only exception is Nijmegen - I suspect that, a bit like Liverpool, Havana aan de Waal has a reputation as a left-wing city that helps push it further left, but I'm just guessing). All of which suggests: 1. Their result was driven by the GL, not PvdA 2. They have failed to reconnect with their working class former voters (De Rode Muur, anyone?) 3. The Dutch public still have some serious trust issues with their traditional centre-left, and a proper recovery is a long way off Yes, the leadership wanted to leave a sinking ship - but thousands of red-until-dead (low-educated/rural/pensionists/...) did so as well:  Yet, as the NetherLand had in the XIXth been non-industrial&poor (contrary to Belgium - tempora mutantur...), PvdA had traditionally to search for other ("bourgeois") groups and was as a conSequence already before the merger a party of high formal education (source: LISS):  |
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Post by markgoodair on Nov 23, 2023 12:30:06 GMT
Wilders seems to be asserting that he wants to be part of any government more strongly than he has in the past. The key question is whether any of the other parties will work with him. |
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right
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Post by right on Nov 23, 2023 14:00:59 GMT
Everything seems to be set for another election. Didn't get it right first time |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 23, 2023 14:33:38 GMT
PVV has narrowly edged out PvdA/GL in North Holland, so it looks like PvdA only won Utrecht.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 23, 2023 14:33:56 GMT
Wilders seems to be asserting that he wants to be part of any government more strongly than he has in the past. The key question is whether any of the other parties will work with him. Probably not, the VVD don't sound like they will. There was an amusing complaint by a PvdA source moaning that Wilders was using conciliatory language and talking about compromises. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 23, 2023 14:36:44 GMT
Everything seems to be set for another election. Didn't get it right first time To be fair, the electors knew very well which parties refused to work with one another, so, it is their fault if their votes result in no possible solution. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 23, 2023 14:37:02 GMT
The key question is whether any of the other parties will work with him. Probably not, the VVD don't sound like they will. There was an amusing complaint by a PvdA source moaning that Wilders was using conciliatory language and talking about compromises. Hilarious that VVD were the ones who opened to possibility of a VVD-PVV coalition in the first place because they thought that they would need them to form a stable coalition, but are now bitter about it because Wilders won more seats than them… |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 23, 2023 14:37:42 GMT
Didn't get it right first time To be fair, the electors knew very well which parties refused to work with one another, so, it is their fault if their votes result in no possible solution. But VVD didn’t say that they wouldn’t work with PVV. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 23, 2023 14:39:29 GMT
To be fair, the electors knew very well which parties refused to work with one another, so, it is their fault if their votes result in no possible solution. But VVD didn’t say they wouldn’t work with PVV. That's irrelevent as VVD+PVV doesn't have a majority, nor does any combinaison of them not involving the left, the CDA or the NSC. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 23, 2023 14:42:43 GMT
But VVD didn’t say they wouldn’t work with PVV. That's irrelevent as VVD+PVV doesn't have a majority, nor does any combinaison of them not involving the left, the CDA or the NSC. NSC actually said after the election that they are open to a coalition with Wilders. VVD is going to get nuked into oblivion if they enter a coalition with PvdA/GL, just like PvdA was after it entered the Rutte government in 2012. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 23, 2023 14:47:15 GMT
That's irrelevent as VVD+PVV doesn't have a majority, nor does any combinaison of them not involving the left, the CDA or the NSC. NSC actually said after the election that they are open to a coalition with Wilders. VVD is going to get nuked into oblivion if they enter a coalition with PvdA/GL, just like PvdA was after it entered the Rutte government in 2012. And given there they got their actual voters from, NSC is going to do the same if they ally with PVV. No matter how open NSC sounds, I have a strong feeling theirs red lines wouldn't be compatible with Wilders in the end and they would just fail to reach a deal, unless Wilders drops most of his program. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Nov 23, 2023 15:01:15 GMT
NSC actually said after the election that they are open to a coalition with Wilders. VVD is going to get nuked into oblivion if they enter a coalition with PvdA/GL, just like PvdA was after it entered the Rutte government in 2012. And given there they got their actual voters from, NSC is going to do the same if they ally with PVV. No matter how open NSC sounds, I have a strong feeling theirs red lines wouldn't be compatible with Wilders in the end and they would just fail to reach a deal, unless Wilders drops most of his program. 1.Most of the NSC voters aren’t necessarily from anti-PVV areas (Limburg, Overijssel, Drenthe, and Friesland). 2.I expect Wilders to bend over backwards for potential coalition partners to become PM. |
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