nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 9, 2023 11:05:21 GMT
No way Labour wins a 66% Tory seat (whatever the new boundaries) in a GE. That comparison with the opposite political trends in Edgbaston is not talked about enough - the 21st century trend for people to live in exurban developments in seats like Cannock Chase, Tamworth etc which partly explains why Labour won Cannock & Burntwood in 1992, but seriously struggle to remain competitive there now. I think the likes of Codsall and Tamworth proper have a fair few people whose parents and grandparents may have lived in Birmingham, Edgbaston or Wolverhampton South West when Enoch Powell represented that constituency. While I think Labour can flip back Newcastle-under-Lyme and the Stoke-on-Trent seats (not that confident about the southern one), I think they will come up short in places like Bloxwich, Dudley and here (the first two had Labour MPs more recently). Toss-up here now. I wonder what was the Tory seat with the highest notional vote share in 1992 that was lost in 1997? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 9, 2023 11:20:20 GMT
Think it was Brent North at 57.4%.
The highest Conservative vote share in the real 1992 election was 66.2% (for John Major in Huntingdon) so opportunities to lose 66% Tory seats were limited.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2023 11:25:38 GMT
It was Tatton (62.2%) but that was obviously a special case
Of 'normal seats' the highest was Romford (58.1) closely followed by Enfield Southgate (57.9) and Ilford North (57.8)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2023 11:33:19 GMT
That said I'm not convinced by the official notionals for Brent North which imply a very small Labour lead in the St Andrews ward (dominated by the Chalk Hill estate) in 1992. My own notional results give a Tory share of 58.3% in Brent North, but we have to go with the official figures I guess.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 11:54:22 GMT
Think it was Brent North at 57.4%. The highest Conservative vote share in the real 1992 election was 66.2% (for John Major in Huntingdon) so opportunities to lose 66% Tory seats were limited. Which begs the question - what's the safest Tory seat that's falling next time? All the safest seats that fell in 1997 were generally suburban, London areas. Brent North, Harrow West; Enfield, Southgate. All similar sorts of seats. In 2024, I think Sussex, Surrey, Oxon., could be rough for the Tory party. The biggest shock might be if Rupert Harrison doesn't win in Bicester. He could help a Tory revival so the Lib Dems may focus on the seat. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2023 12:24:33 GMT
Think it was Brent North at 57.4%. The highest Conservative vote share in the real 1992 election was 66.2% (for John Major in Huntingdon) so opportunities to lose 66% Tory seats were limited. Which begs the question - what's the safest Tory seat that's falling next time? All the safest seats that fell in 1997 were generally suburban, London areas. Brent North, Harrow West; Enfield, Southgate. All similar sorts of seats. In 2024, I think Sussex, Surrey, Oxon., could be rough for the Tory party. The biggest shock might be if Rupert Harrison doesn't win in Bicester. He could help a Tory revival so the Lib Dems may focus on the seat. Rupert Harrison appears to be the new Rory Stewart, in as much as he is the subject of your latest obsession. I hope he does lose. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Sept 9, 2023 12:37:39 GMT
Which begs the question - what's the safest Tory seat that's falling next time? All the safest seats that fell in 1997 were generally suburban, London areas. Brent North, Harrow West; Enfield, Southgate. All similar sorts of seats. In 2024, I think Sussex, Surrey, Oxon., could be rough for the Tory party. The biggest shock might be if Rupert Harrison doesn't win in Bicester. He could help a Tory revival so the Lib Dems may focus on the seat. Rupert Harrison appears to be the new Rory Stewart, in as much as he is the subject of your latest obsession. I hope he does lose. Perhaps not quite as bad as Rory Stewart but there are many red flags on his CV and I hoped to see him lose even before knowing he had the endorsement of @weld |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 9, 2023 14:28:30 GMT
As a general comment (this is not a prediction for this by-election), if you know people in the general lower middle/upper working class segment(s) of society in the West Midlands, then you'll know that the general attitude towards this government is one of actual fury. The fact that the Conservatives did very well with these groups in 2019 does not work as mitigation against this; if anything it seems to have made the sentiment sharper for the fairly obvious reason that people don't like being played for fools. And, of course, the opposition is infinitely more to the liking of the sort of people in question now.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 9, 2023 19:08:36 GMT
I wonder if normal people follow this account and it impacts their voting behaviour? I think he’s right that it’s likely very close either way. The Greens could cock block Labour here. That myth was debunked years ago. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 11, 2023 13:38:24 GMT
Writ moved today, to be issued on 14 September. Byelection polling day likely to be 19 October, same day as Mid Bedfordshire.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 12, 2023 20:50:51 GMT
Andrew Cooper picked as Conservative candidate
c.40, Tamworth councillor since 2021; assurance engineer with Network Rail since 2007; served with Staffordshire Regiment, 2001-07, went from sniper to lance corporal; did tours to Iraq, Kenya & Kosovo.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,375 
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Post by stb12 on Sept 12, 2023 21:15:53 GMT
Andrew Cooper picked as Conservative candidate c.40, Tamworth councillor since 2021; assurance engineer with Network Rail since 2007; served with Staffordshire Regiment, 2001-07, went from sniper to lance corporal; did tours to Iraq, Kenya & Kosovo. Any word on Eddie Hughes’ general election candidacy? |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 12, 2023 21:32:37 GMT
Andrew Cooper picked as Conservative candidate c.40, Tamworth councillor since 2021; assurance engineer with Network Rail since 2007; served with Staffordshire Regiment, 2001-07, went from sniper to lance corporal; did tours to Iraq, Kenya & Kosovo. Any word on Eddie Hughes’ general election candidacy? Nope. As has been said before, if the by election is lost then I imagine Hughes will be the candidate. .if it’s held it’s going to be interesting. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,375
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Post by stb12 on Sept 12, 2023 21:54:04 GMT
Any word on Eddie Hughes’ general election candidacy? Nope. As has been said before, if the by election is lost then I imagine Hughes will be the candidate. .if it’s held it’s going to be interesting. Indeed, he may secretly want his party to lose because of that although on the other hand Labour holding the seat could make it that bit harder to win at the GE anyway |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Sept 13, 2023 14:52:08 GMT
Any word on Eddie Hughes’ general election candidacy? Nope. As has been said before, if the by election is lost then I imagine Hughes will be the candidate. .if it’s held it’s going to be interesting.
The party has made a right Tamworth Pig's Breakfast of this one.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 13, 2023 15:10:38 GMT
Nope. As has been said before, if the by election is lost then I imagine Hughes will be the candidate. .if it’s held it’s going to be interesting. The party has made a right Tamworth Pig's Breakfast of this one.
No it hasn’t. It has selected a candidate for the by-election in the normal way. It has also selected a candidate for the next general election in the normal way. The fact that the latter happened before the former is unusual, but not irregular in any way. The fact that the prospective candidate for the general election is already an MP somewhere else is also unusual, and also not irregular in any way. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,375
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Post by stb12 on Sept 13, 2023 16:28:03 GMT
The party has made a right Tamworth Pig's Breakfast of this one.
No it hasn’t. It has selected a candidate for the by-election in the normal way. It has also selected a candidate for the next general election in the normal way. The fact that the latter happened before the former is unusual, but not irregular in any way. The fact that the prospective candidate for the general election is already an MP somewhere else is also unusual, and also not irregular in any way. I guess the point is that they would have been best leaving the Tamworth selection process for a while longer, but they maybe didn’t think Pincher’s situation would go that far with the Standards process and he would therefore just be quietly retiring at the next election |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Sept 13, 2023 18:29:55 GMT
I wonder if normal people follow this account and it impacts their voting behaviour? I think he’s right that it’s likely very close either way. The Greens could cock block Labour here. That myth was debunked years ago. That Green candidacies hurt the Labour vote? |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 15, 2023 12:49:35 GMT
Eddie Hughes has confirmed that he will look for another seat if the Conservatives win the by election.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 15, 2023 16:05:36 GMT
Andrew Cooper picked as Conservative candidate c.40, Tamworth councillor since 2021; assurance engineer with Network Rail since 2007; served with Staffordshire Regiment, 2001-07, went from sniper to lance corporal; did tours to Iraq, Kenya & Kosovo. Pretty good CV as with the Uxbridge by election looks like the candidate might be decent. |
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