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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 6, 2023 8:47:39 GMT
Report conclusion: The breach we are considering is solely whether Mr Pincher has caused significant damage to the reputation and integrity of the House as a whole, or of its Members generally. The perception that MPs can engage in such conduct with impunity does significantly impact public perception of the House and its Members. We therefore recommend that Mr Pincher be suspended from the service of the House for 8 weeks. Link: publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmstandards/1653/report.html |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 6, 2023 8:48:17 GMT
Previous result  [ |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2023 8:54:02 GMT
Previous result [ A 2010 gain that really swung towards the Tories at every subsequent election |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 6, 2023 8:56:44 GMT
Thanks Davıd BoothroydUnder the Code of Conduct, Pincher has up to ten working days to appeal against either the decision that he broke the Code, or the level of sanction. That means the motion to agree the suspension recommended in the report can't be moved until the time for appeal has expired (or Pincher waives his appeal or ceases to be an MP). The date of the Summer Recess hasn't been announced yet. If it's set on 20 July that would mean the motion would have to wait until the September session (with consequent delays for the recall petition). |
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Post by gibbon on Jul 6, 2023 9:21:04 GMT
What are the odds that Parliament goes into recess on 19 July?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2023 9:57:59 GMT
Previous result [ Previous by-election result  |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 6, 2023 10:01:59 GMT
Anyone know what the News Bunny is up to these days?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2023 10:04:37 GMT
Previous result [ Previous by-election result Labour wins a Tamworth by-election by a few hundred votes if they repeat the 1996 South East Staffordshire swing. |
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2023 10:20:07 GMT
Anyone know what the News Bunny is up to these days? he's really gone down the rabbit hole these days, sadly |
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2023 10:24:21 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2023 10:29:06 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. Tamworth is one of those seats that swung to the Tories at every general election after 1997. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2023 10:30:03 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. We think there was some kind of error there don't we? |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 6, 2023 10:47:35 GMT
Anyone know what the News Bunny is up to these days? That character has not been seen for 20 years-long since forgotten, along with LIVE TV itself. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 6, 2023 10:49:02 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. Tamworth is one of those seats that swung to the Tories at every general election after 1997. Primarily due to demographic change-it became a magnet for middle-income commuters due to its excellent transport links and low house prices, and the closure of the Reliant factory in 2001 was a key factor in the decline of Tamworth's core Labour voter base. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 6, 2023 10:54:48 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. We think there was some kind of error there don't we? Giving due recognition of the fact that the only evidence for an error/miscount is the fact that the 1987 result looks out of line with the 1983 and 1992 results there if you compare vote changes with other neighbouring constituencies, I think it's fair to say most people have concluded that the figures as declared in 1987 didn't reflect the actual pattern of voting. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 6, 2023 11:09:38 GMT
Previous by-election result Labour wins a Tamworth by-election by a few hundred votes if they repeat the 1996 South East Staffordshire swing. Though Labour had a 2,500 majority here in 2005. |
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Post by willpower3 on Jul 6, 2023 11:12:45 GMT
The SDP candidate perhaps got (G)lucky in 1987.
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2023 11:26:19 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. We think there was some kind of error there don't we? I have heard that said in the past, though I don't recall of what magnitude. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 6, 2023 11:44:30 GMT
Just looking up on the 1987 election in South East Staffordshire and there are several odd news stories about the SDP candidate Elizabeth Gluck. She ran a telephone selling company called Programmes Ltd, and in September 1986 won a £5,000 prize from Options Magazine at the Women Mean Business awards.
The following day the Daily Mirror ran a story saying the sales technique used by Programmes Ltd was very similar to mind control techniques developed by "the Exegesis Programmes cult", of which Gluck was said to have been a senior member, as were many of her employees. Exegesis was said to run £240 courses at which "recruits are ridiculed and humiliated before having their self-confidence and personality 'rebuilt' by the aggressive chanting of slogans"; and the working day at Programmes Ltd was also said to include a lot of chanting.
Her selection came late in the day - at the beginning of March 1987. Programmes Ltd then branched out into the opinion poll business, and conducted a constituency poll which found that 50.1% of voters in South East Staffordshire would vote SDP if they thought the candidate had a chance of winning. Paul Foot of the Daily Mirror asked Gluck if there was possibly a conflict of interest between her directorship of the opinion poll company and being the SDP candidate, which she denied.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 6, 2023 12:38:03 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. My families heimort. As it happens, that general area along the rural fringe of Tamworth and the Anker Valley is being heavily developed - thousands of new homes. This is not labour friendly development by any means. |
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