Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2023 13:16:52 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. My families heimort. As it happens, that general area along the rural fringe of Tamworth and the Anker Valley is being heavily developed - thousands of new homes. This is not labour friendly development by any means. Why? |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 6, 2023 13:23:46 GMT
My families heimort. As it happens, that general area along the rural fringe of Tamworth and the Anker Valley is being heavily developed - thousands of new homes. This is not labour friendly development by any means. Why? Because it's semi rural / edge of conurbation, comparatively expensive new private dominated development. Tamworth proper has a lot of quite run down areas. These are diluted by more and more middle class stuff. |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 6, 2023 13:48:58 GMT
We think there was some kind of error there don't we? I have heard that said in the past, though I don't recall of what magnitude. How would such a mistake be made - bundles miscounted or something more malicous? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 6, 2023 13:50:13 GMT
It is an issue that has flown under the radar. The large house building in towns certainly in the north and Midlands has hurt Labour but because of brexit that story isn't really discussed.
I remember being driven round high green when I was selected as the candidate in the locals. My agent says, before this was incorporated into Sheffield it was solid labour. I asked him what changed and said; council rates and house building. People already living there didn't like paying more in rates and new people moving in weren't necessarily labour voters
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 6, 2023 13:55:28 GMT
Yes, but it's more complicated than necessarily being a permanent boon to the Conservatives as well. The general effect in most areas has been to increase volatility: part of the general trend of everywhere in this country becoming a little more like everywhere else in this country.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 6, 2023 14:11:40 GMT
It is an issue that has flown under the radar. The large house building in towns certainly in the north and Midlands has hurt Labour but because of brexit that story isn't really discussed. I remember being driven round high green when I was selected as the candidate in the locals. My agent says, before this was incorporated into Sheffield it was solid labour. I asked him what changed and said; council rates and house building. People already living there didn't like paying more in rates and new people moving in weren't necessarily labour voters Before High Green was incorporated into Sheffield means 50 years ago. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 6, 2023 14:30:25 GMT
It is an issue that has flown under the radar. The large house building in towns certainly in the north and Midlands has hurt Labour but because of brexit that story isn't really discussed. I remember being driven round high green when I was selected as the candidate in the locals. My agent says, before this was incorporated into Sheffield it was solid labour. I asked him what changed and said; council rates and house building. People already living there didn't like paying more in rates and new people moving in weren't necessarily labour voters Before High Green was incorporated into Sheffield means 50 years ago. aye but much of the house building has been since then and the seats that P&S replaced were usually pretty safe for labour after the war. When P&S was first created it was seen as quite a marginal seat despite historically it's previous incarnations being safe post war |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 6, 2023 14:33:40 GMT
Anyone know what the News Bunny is up to these days? he's really gone down the rabbit hole these days, sadly  |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2023 15:32:16 GMT
For those clearer with the exact rules, how has the standards and recall process been able to take place in a case like this where the issue was unrelated to parliament, happened outside of it and involves no criminal case so far? When with Claudia Webbe nothing could be done about her actions once her custodial sentence was overturned
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 6, 2023 15:53:18 GMT
For those clearer with the exact rules, how has the standards and recall process been able to take place in a case like this where the issue was unrelated to parliament, happened outside of it and involves no criminal case so far? When with Claudia Webbe nothing could be done about her actions once her custodial sentence was overturned You'd have had your answer if you read the Standards Committee report: publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmstandards/1653/report.htmlPincher argued that this was outside Parliament and nothing to do with it. See paras 47-51 for what the Committee made of that. The Code of Conduct states "The Code applies to Members in all aspects of their public life. It does not seek to regulate what Members do in their purely private and personal lives." Pincher was invited as a Government Minister, and went back into the Carlton Club because it was a political event - so it's caught by the code. By contrast Webbe's conduct was in her "purely private and personal life" and didn't have anything to do with her position as an MP. |
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Post by kevinf on Jul 6, 2023 16:07:55 GMT
The Labour odds on Smarkets are ridiculously low.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 6, 2023 19:39:13 GMT
Yes, but it's more complicated than necessarily being a permanent boon to the Conservatives as well. The general effect in most areas has been to increase volatility: part of the general trend of everywhere in this country becoming a little more like everywhere else in this country. And in this specific case, anybody who has bought a house with a large mortgage in recent years is unlikely to hold particularly warm feelings for the Conservative Party at this precise moment in time. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jul 6, 2023 19:55:11 GMT
Anyone know what the News Bunny is up to these days? That character has not been seen for 20 years-long since forgotten, along with LIVE TV itself. My great moments of the 1997 election came on L!ve TV |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2023 20:17:55 GMT
For those clearer with the exact rules, how has the standards and recall process been able to take place in a case like this where the issue was unrelated to parliament, happened outside of it and involves no criminal case so far? When with Claudia Webbe nothing could be done about her actions once her custodial sentence was overturned Pincher argued that this was outside Parliament and nothing to do with it. See paras 47-51 for what the Committee made of that. The Code of Conduct states "The Code applies to Members in all aspects of their public life. It does not seek to regulate what Members do in their purely private and personal lives." Pincher was invited as a Government Minister, and went back into the Carlton Club because it was a political event - so it's caught by the code. By contrast Webbe's conduct was in her "purely private and personal life" and didn't have anything to do with her position as an MP. I'll openly admit to some laziness on my part with that one  |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 6, 2023 20:54:08 GMT
This potentially could be very close (unlike SE Staffordshire in 1996) as the swing Labour needs to win is far from trivial, and the rural minority of the seat is extremely heavily & pretty much unshakably Conservative. Labour will need to amass quite a substantial lead in the Tamworth urban wards to immunise itself from the Tories' likely still big lead in that part. I'd tend to fancy Labour but an easy win is not likely, and a Tory retention cannot be ruled out. At least the tactical situation is completely clear cut. Looking at today's vote shares, it seems hard to believe that as SE Staffordshire this was the one & only seat in the 1987 general election where the Alliance gained second place from Labour. Using the Mid Bedfordshire rationale it's clear the Lib Dems are the main challenger here because their ceiling is so much higher than Labour's. |
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2023 22:47:02 GMT
In their homes, who knows, that might just be the case.
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Post by ccoleman on Jul 7, 2023 1:16:04 GMT
It is an issue that has flown under the radar. The large house building in towns certainly in the north and Midlands has hurt Labour but because of brexit that story isn't really discussed. I remember being driven round high green when I was selected as the candidate in the locals. My agent says, before this was incorporated into Sheffield it was solid labour. I asked him what changed and said; council rates and house building. People already living there didn't like paying more in rates and new people moving in weren't necessarily labour voters I think that might have been true at some point but not so much now. In my experience a significant percentage of new build homes are bought by 30something couples with young children - and it’s probably fair to say that this demographic isn’t sympathetic to the Tories these days. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 5:26:38 GMT
Many of these new build 'executive homes' elsewhere are £500k+. Might the new incarnation of 'Mondeo Man' be found in some of these developments (I ask this only partially in jest)? The mortgage crisis might make the difference. Is Sunak in a worse position nationally than Major in '96? I don't doubt that Tamworth, as with a lot of Staffs zoomed right in the 2010s, but Boris and Brexit drove a lot of that in 2019 - neither is on the ballot now. It also depends if the Tories are hemorrhaging votes to other right-wing parties.
It's funny how things change. Staffordshire, along with Essex and Lincolnshire are now the strongest Tory counties in the UK. That's a big difference from say, 1992. The Conservatives broke 70% in multiple seats in those counties (although they 'only' won 66% in Tamworth). For context, they hadn't won 70% in a constituency in a General Election since Kensington South in 1970. Tamworth is the 55th safest Tory seat so it's the end of days territory if they lose it, IMO.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2023 9:27:14 GMT
But as you say, 2019 was rather a "unique" election and it hasn't historically been one of *the* safest Tory seats (even if pretty safe in the previous few polls)
Am starting to think that in many ways 2017 might be a better "benchmark" than the last GE when thinking about swings for next time.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 7, 2023 10:03:44 GMT
It is an issue that has flown under the radar. The large house building in towns certainly in the north and Midlands has hurt Labour but because of brexit that story isn't really discussed. I remember being driven round high green when I was selected as the candidate in the locals. My agent says, before this was incorporated into Sheffield it was solid labour. I asked him what changed and said; council rates and house building. People already living there didn't like paying more in rates and new people moving in weren't necessarily labour voters I think that might have been true at some point but not so much now. In my experience a significant percentage of new build homes are bought by 30something couples with young children - and it’s probably fair to say that this demographic isn’t sympathetic to the Tories these days. I thought it was interesting that the Conservatives (successfully) pushed to have the Waverley new town excluded from the Rother Valley constituency, and the 2021 local election results suggest they were sensible to do so. But Waverley's demographics and voting patterns may be a bit different from those of new developments around Tamworth. |
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