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Post by greenhert on Sept 7, 2023 18:20:35 GMT
Some curious exceptions to that like Liverpool, Edge Hill. I take it David Alton is the last non-Labour MP for a Liverpool constituency? The last elected for a party other than Labour, yes (I am discounting defections). Liverpool Mossley Hill was the wealthiest of the Liverpudlian constituencies during its short existence and Labour actually finished 3rd there behind the Conservatives in 1983. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2023 20:29:09 GMT
I take it David Alton is the last non-Labour MP for a Liverpool constituency? The last elected for a party other than Labour, yes (I am discounting defections). Liverpool Mossley Hill was the wealthiest of the Liverpudlian constituencies during its short existence and Labour actually finished 3rd there behind the Conservatives in 1983. The nearest any other candidate has come to winning a Liverpool seat since David Alton left was in 2005 in Liverpool Wavertree, when the Liberal Democrats were 14.7% behind Labour. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Sept 7, 2023 21:19:48 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 7, 2023 22:27:14 GMT
With the number of by-elections it will be interesting by the end of the parliament to poll how many the Tories will win back if any In 1997 they only won back Christchurch, but Chesham, North Shropshire and the successor to Tiverton and Honiton are much more in the Christchurch level of safeness than the Newbury and Eastleigh level. It’s very difficult to tell but if I had to bet at this stage, I would say Likely regain. North Shropshire, Honiton and Sidmouth,, Selby, Mid Bedfordshire*, Tamworth* who knows: Chesham Likely loss- Glastonbury and Somerton Certain loss- Wakefield. I don't see the Conservative regaining Selby, while it drops the most rural parts and gains former coal mining villages near Leeds instead. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2023 2:43:44 GMT
I wonder if normal people follow this account and it impacts their voting behaviour? I think he’s right that it’s likely very close either way. The Greens could cock block Labour here.
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Post by Wisconsin on Sept 8, 2023 6:45:51 GMT
I can’t follow an account with such a stupid name.
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Post by threecrowns on Sept 8, 2023 6:57:34 GMT
With the number of by-elections it will be interesting by the end of the parliament to poll how many the Tories will win back if any In 1997 they only won back Christchurch, but Chesham, North Shropshire and the successor to Tiverton and Honiton are much more in the Christchurch level of safeness than the Newbury and Eastleigh level. It’s very difficult to tell but if I had to bet at this stage, I would say Likely regain. North Shropshire, Honiton and Sidmouth,, Selby, Mid Bedfordshire*, Tamworth* who knows: Chesham Likely loss- Glastonbury and Somerton Certain loss- Wakefield. They'll regain North Shropshire. That will be it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2023 7:53:26 GMT
I can’t follow an account with such a stupid name. I follow it because you should know thy enemy  |
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 8, 2023 9:38:13 GMT
I wonder if normal people follow this account and it impacts their voting behaviour? I think he’s right that it’s likely very close either way. The Greens could cock block Labour here. The seat has swung massively to the Tories since 2005 which might mean there is the potential for a very big 'swingback' unless there are underlying demographic changes at work there. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Sept 8, 2023 9:48:04 GMT
I can’t follow an account with such a stupid name. I follow it because you should know thy enemy I don’t especially dislike ‘lefties’ - but the branding ‘Stats for X’ is just bizarre and actively invites people to disregard it. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 8, 2023 9:59:46 GMT
I follow it because you should know thy enemy I don’t especially dislike ‘lefties’ - but the branding ‘Stats for X’ is just bizarre and actively invites people to disregard it.
You would have gone for Stats for Remainders?
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 8, 2023 10:20:17 GMT
I don’t especially dislike ‘lefties’ - but the branding ‘Stats for X’ is just bizarre and actively invites people to disregard it.
You would have gone for Stats for Remainders?
Don't all decent stats involve remainders? |
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 8, 2023 10:26:48 GMT
For the avoidance of doubt (see Mid Beds thread for context) the Lib Dems do not consider themselves to be contenders in this by-election :-)
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 8, 2023 12:22:45 GMT
You would have gone for Stats for Remainders?
Don't all decent stats involve remainders? Correct, I prefer that title to lefties overs. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 8, 2023 12:33:25 GMT
I don’t especially dislike ‘lefties’ - but the branding ‘Stats for X’ is just bizarre and actively invites people to disregard it.
You would have gone for Stats for Remainders?
That might be too fractional. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Sept 8, 2023 18:01:08 GMT
I wonder if normal people follow this account and it impacts their voting behaviour? I think he’s right that it’s likely very close either way. The Greens could cock block Labour here. I don't think the Greens will get 6% in Tamworth. They got just over 5% in Selby & Ainsty, where their candidate was a local councillor who apparently did particularly well in his own ward; nothing like that is going to be the case in Tamworth, where there were only a handful of Green candidates in May and none of them really troubled the scorers. In fact I suspect that the Lib Dems and Greens will struggle to get to deposit saving levels if you combined their votes. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Sept 8, 2023 20:06:53 GMT
added to which Tamworth would appear to be one of the kinds of places where one would tend to expect the Greens to do least well - although they do have some surprising council seats not that far away. Selby & Ainsty is perhaps less of that (however stereotypical) type.
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Post by aargauer on Sept 8, 2023 21:51:58 GMT
In 1997 they only won back Christchurch, but Chesham, North Shropshire and the successor to Tiverton and Honiton are much more in the Christchurch level of safeness than the Newbury and Eastleigh level. It’s very difficult to tell but if I had to bet at this stage, I would say Likely regain. North Shropshire, Honiton and Sidmouth,, Selby, Mid Bedfordshire*, Tamworth* who knows: Chesham Likely loss- Glastonbury and Somerton Certain loss- Wakefield. They'll regain North Shropshire. That will be it. I know Tamworth very well, labours brand damage here is extensive and I suspect permanent a la Birmingham Edgbaston. I think labour win the by election because the tories can't win anything outside greater fenland atm, but I'd be surprised if they win it at the general and even if they do it would be a Gedling 2019. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 1:34:43 GMT
No way Labour wins a 66% Tory seat (whatever the new boundaries) in a GE. That comparison with the opposite political trends in Edgbaston is not talked about enough - the 21st century trend for people to live in exurban developments in seats like Cannock Chase, Tamworth etc which partly explains why Labour won Cannock & Burntwood in 1992, but seriously struggle to remain competitive there now. I think the likes of Codsall and Tamworth proper have a fair few people whose parents and grandparents may have lived in Birmingham, Edgbaston or Wolverhampton South West when Enoch Powell represented that constituency. While I think Labour can flip back Newcastle-under-Lyme and the Stoke-on-Trent seats (not that confident about the southern one), I think they will come up short in places like Bloxwich, Dudley and here (the first two had Labour MPs more recently). Toss-up here now.
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 9, 2023 10:30:27 GMT
No way Labour wins a 66% Tory seat (whatever the new boundaries) in a GE. That comparison with the opposite political trends in Edgbaston is not talked about enough - the 21st century trend for people to live in exurban developments in seats like Cannock Chase, Tamworth etc which partly explains why Labour won Cannock & Burntwood in 1992, but seriously struggle to remain competitive there now. I think the likes of Codsall and Tamworth proper have a fair few people whose parents and grandparents may have lived in Birmingham, Edgbaston or Wolverhampton South West when Enoch Powell represented that constituency. While I think Labour can flip back Newcastle-under-Lyme and the Stoke-on-Trent seats (not that confident about the southern one), I think they will come up short in places like Bloxwich, Dudley and here (the first two had Labour MPs more recently). Toss-up here now. That is fair comment but as recently as the elections of 2005 and 2010 the Tory vote share was 37% and 46% respectively. Has there been significant demographic change in the area since those GEs? |
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