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Post by John Chanin on Sept 7, 2023 12:24:08 GMT
The Conservatives should find a proper candidate for a by-election they might well win. If they do the new MP defends in 2024, and Eddie Hughes looks to continue his career elsewhere (something may come available, but Solihull wouldn't be ideal - perhaps Gavin Williamson could be persuaded to stand down). If the Conservatives lose the by-election then Hughes stands there in 2024, but is far from certain to win, in a town prone to large swings.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 7, 2023 12:25:22 GMT
With the number of by-elections it will be interesting by the end of the parliament to poll how many the Tories will win back if any I’m hopeful we can recoup at least some of them. Even in 1997 we got Christchurch back. how did the Kiwis feel about it? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2023 12:31:12 GMT
I’m hopeful we can recoup at least some of them. Even in 1997 we got Christchurch back. Labour won back about four by-election losses in 1979 despite comfortably losing overall Some curious exceptions to that like Liverpool, Edge Hill. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Sept 7, 2023 13:00:49 GMT
Labour won back about four by-election losses in 1979 despite comfortably losing overall Some curious exceptions to that like Liverpool, Edge Hill. I take it David Alton is the last non-Labour MP for a Liverpool constituency? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 7, 2023 13:02:38 GMT
With the number of by-elections it will be interesting by the end of the parliament to poll how many the Tories will win back if any In 1997 they only won back Christchurch, but Chesham, North Shropshire and the successor to Tiverton and Honiton are much more in the Christchurch level of safeness than the Newbury and Eastleigh level. It’s very difficult to tell but if I had to bet at this stage, I would say Likely regain. North Shropshire, Honiton and Sidmouth,, Selby, Mid Bedfordshire*, Tamworth* who knows: Chesham Likely loss- Glastonbury and Somerton Certain loss- Wakefield. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 7, 2023 13:11:21 GMT
Some curious exceptions to that like Liverpool, Edge Hill. I take it David Alton is the last non-Labour MP for a Liverpool constituency? Bob Wareing and Luciana Berger both left the Labour Party so they were non-Labour MPs for Liverpool constituencies. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Sept 7, 2023 13:12:40 GMT
I take it David Alton is the last non-Labour MP for a Liverpool constituency? Bob Wareing and Luciana Berger both left the Labour Party so they were non-Labour MPs for Liverpool constituencies. *elected as non-Labour  |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 7, 2023 13:14:35 GMT
In answer to stb12, in 1979, Labour regained Walsall North, Workington, Birmingham Stechford & Ashfield, 4 seats as you say. The Tories held Redbridge Ilford North & Greenwich Woolwich West and the Liberals held Liverpool Edge Hill which they had only just gained just before the general election.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 7, 2023 13:18:22 GMT
I take it David Alton is the last non-Labour MP for a Liverpool constituency? Bob Wareing and Luciana Berger both left the Labour Party so they were non-Labour MPs for Liverpool constituencies. and temporarily Louise Ellman too - she has rejoined of course since then |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 7, 2023 13:48:34 GMT
Although not on the same boundaries, if the swing in Staffordshire South East (1996) were repeated on the average drop in turnout we have seen in this Parliament so far, the benchmark for Labour is a Labour GAIN with a majority of 450 votes.
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Post by swanarcadian on Sept 7, 2023 15:28:30 GMT
I’m hopeful we can recoup at least some of them. Even in 1997 we got Christchurch back. Labour won back about four by-election losses in 1979 despite comfortably losing overall Yes, and gained ground in local elections also, as outgoing parties of government tend to do. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 7, 2023 15:46:17 GMT
Although not on the same boundaries, if the swing in Staffordshire South East (1996) were repeated on the average drop in turnout we have seen in this Parliament so far, the benchmark for Labour is a Labour GAIN with a majority of 450 votes. In 2005 Labour had a majority in excess of 2500 at a time when its GB vote lead was 3%. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2023 15:50:31 GMT
Labour won back about four by-election losses in 1979 despite comfortably losing overall Yes, and gained ground in local elections also, as outgoing parties of government tend to do. There are a few examples of places where they gained control of the local council while simultaneously losing the parliamentary seat - Welwyn Hatfield was one such. |
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Sept 7, 2023 16:35:36 GMT
I ought to report to honourable members that a former holder of the office of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds floated to the surface quite recently.
The former dishourable member was seen in the Fox & Hounds at Newmillardam a couple of weeks ago. Obviously he wasn't drinking because, as he told the judge in his trial, he doesn't drink and stopped doing so some years ago.
Apparently, he had a terribly hard time in prison with people giving him the odd slap, spitting in his food, calling him a dirty nonce and so on.....or so he told my informant
Anyway, I am sure that you are all shocked to hear it.
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 7, 2023 16:42:28 GMT
I ought to report to honourable members that a former holder of the office of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds floated to the surface quite recently. The former dishourable member was seen in the Fox & Hounds at Newmillardam a couple of weeks ago. Obviously he wasn't drinking because, as he told the judge in his trial, he doesn't drink and stopped doing so some years ago. Apparently, he had a terribly hard time in prison with people giving him the odd slap, spitting in his food, calling him a dirty nonce and so on.....or so he told my informant Anyway, I am sure that you are all shocked to hear it.  |
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Sept 7, 2023 16:52:06 GMT
I ought to report to honourable members that a former holder of the office of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds floated to the surface quite recently. The former dishourable member was seen in the Fox & Hounds at Newmillardam a couple of weeks ago. Obviously he wasn't drinking because, as he told the judge in his trial, he doesn't drink and stopped doing so some years ago. Apparently, he had a terribly hard time in prison with people giving him the odd slap, spitting in his food, calling him a dirty nonce and so on.....or so he told my informant Anyway, I am sure that you are all shocked to hear it. Now stop it......that's just terrible |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2023 16:59:26 GMT
Labour won back about four by-election losses in 1979 despite comfortably losing overall Yes, and gained ground in local elections also, as outgoing parties of government tend to do. The Tories in 1997 won back Cambridgeshire which they no longer hold. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 7, 2023 17:43:57 GMT
I ought to report to honourable members that a former holder of the office of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds floated to the surface quite recently. The former dishourable member was seen in the Fox & Hounds at Newmillardam a couple of weeks ago. Obviously he wasn't drinking because, as he told the judge in his trial, he doesn't drink and stopped doing so some years ago. Apparently, he had a terribly hard time in prison with people giving him the odd slap, spitting in his food, calling him a dirty nonce and so on.....or so he told my informant Anyway, I am sure that you are all shocked to hear it. Are you in favour of corporal punishment administered by the state, or only if its contracted out to other criminals? |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 7, 2023 18:16:13 GMT
A few times now, I have asked @theprogalliance to share with us what stats they have "crunched, muled and mashed" to come up with their recommendation to back the LDs in Mid-Beds. They offer no reply. Without explaining, it's finger in the air stuff and lacks credibility.
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 7, 2023 18:19:30 GMT
Are you in favour of corporal punishment administered by the state, or only if its contracted out to other criminals? Yes and No respectively. But for some I am happy to see them suffer irregardless |
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