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Post by John Chanin on Oct 20, 2023 8:08:10 GMT
Finding a functioning bank branch is so rare these days that I would consider a public vote of thanks to the staff simply for being there. On an unrelated note, I'm sure carlton43 was bemoaning the lack of courtesy in the modern world a few months ago - has he had a Damascene conversion to the joys of yobbish behaviour?! Yes. I do like politeness and courtesy. But these old spanish electoral customs are silly and often pointless, just as are the incessant maundering in football over the death of anyone at all associated with the club and obsessive wearing of black armbands. Most of it is totally insincere posturing and grandstanding and very cloying sentimentality. There is a place for sentimentality in a frequently harsh and unfair world. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 20, 2023 8:11:02 GMT
I think we've established lately that BBC reports have no credibility Well this is exactly what he did do, but I don't think it really matters either way. Are losing candidates expected to make speeches these days?
One of the reasons why I think it extremely unlikely that I would ever stand for election is that I would be a terrible loser and defitnely wouldn’t be standing on the stage , Certainly not if Id entered a contest that was either winnable or losable like these by elections. If I’d stood as a ‘ no hope’ candidate I might just about be able to stand there. So I would leave the scene quickly before the announcement, and I don’t blame anyone else for doing so, that would be hypocritical. I would congratulate the winner one to one though if I had the opportunity. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 20, 2023 8:12:55 GMT
extrapolate anything, agreed. Take it seriously, disagree. A by-election swing this size in mid-term can be more easily dismissed or made light of. One of this size almost 4 years into a parliament cannot. This is a disaster for the Tories, although granted Mid Beds is even worse still. It is certainly more than possible that the Tories may be able to recoup this loss in the general election, but given the time-frame it's not a given. Get excited if you like. We are decades past when the swing really matters at all. The significance here is the collapse of the Conservative vote to 'non-voting'. If there was a genuine groundswell of shift to other parties the TO would have been much higher. This is disengagement and ennui far more than fervour. In Peter Snow voice 'remember it's just a bit of fun'  |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 20, 2023 8:13:46 GMT
Yes. I do like politeness and courtesy. But these old spanish electoral customs are silly and often pointless, just as are the incessant maundering in football over the death of anyone at all associated with the club and obsessive wearing of black armbands. Most of it is totally insincere posturing and grandstanding and very cloying sentimentality. There is a place for sentimentality in a frequently harsh and unfair world. I understand that but have a life-long aversion to cloying sentimentality that grew in mid to late Victorian liberal society and did so much to aid the destruction of our Empire. It lingers on in many places and needs stamping on when encountered. |
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Post by beesknee5 on Oct 20, 2023 8:28:48 GMT
I'd say they got what they deserved.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 20, 2023 8:38:15 GMT
I hope the morons in Westminster don't panic and depose Rishi. That'd be even worse than sticking with him. I could see enough letters going in to force a vote but he would easily survive it. Lets not pretend however that these twin losses haven't even further weakened him. He is the lamest of lame ducks and the sooner he and his party are out of office the better for the country. |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 20, 2023 8:44:11 GMT
A point perhaps worth making is that the three huge Labour swings (yesterday’s two, and Ansty) occurred in circumstances that any opposition party would love: MPs resigning because they didn’t get a peerage or an MP going because of his own unpleasant behaviour. Dorries added an extra edge by hanging around, moaning a lot and refusing to do any work.
But nowadays many by-elections have those edges. Dying in office used to the commonest cause in my experience with getting a new job also featuring.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 20, 2023 8:51:20 GMT
I'd say they got what they deserved. Oh dear! Oh dear!! Slightly pissed, over-exhuberant, posh, entitled totty causes a spot of bother that may haunt him a bit. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 20, 2023 9:08:37 GMT
The thing about standing for election is that it's an easier and more rewarding role than most other activities related to election campaigning or administration. You just have to turn up, smile for photos, listen to your party workers saying nice things about you and stick to your script during hustings. If you're doing any of the scut work, it's a sign that you're not going to win anyway and nobody will notice if you don't turn up.
This being the case, turning up to put a brave face on it when a humiliating result turns up is not a particularly high cost and demonstrating respect for those who have had to do a harder job than yourself is not an unreasonable ask. I will accept that some people do not feel that need to demonstrate respect, but I'm old-fashioned enough to believe that one should make an attempt to disguise one's character flaws.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 9:28:35 GMT
Finding a functioning bank branch is so rare these days that I would consider a public vote of thanks to the staff simply for being there. On an unrelated note, I'm sure carlton43 was bemoaning the lack of courtesy in the modern world a few months ago - has he had a Damascene conversion to the joys of yobbish behaviour?! Yes. I do like politeness and courtesy. But these old spanish electoral customs are silly and often pointless, just as are the incessant maundering in football over the death of anyone at all associated with the club and obsessive wearing of black armbands. Most of it is totally insincere posturing and grandstanding and very cloying sentimentality. I think I can find some common ground with you on black armbands. The number of football fixtures where black armbands are not worn is definitely on a downward trend. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Oct 20, 2023 9:34:56 GMT
The thing about standing for election is that it's an easier and more rewarding role than most other activities related to election campaigning or administration. You just have to turn up, smile for photos, listen to your party workers saying nice things about you and stick to your script during hustings. If you're doing any of the scut work, it's a sign that you're not going to win anyway and nobody will notice if you don't turn up. This being the case, turning up to put a brave face on it when a humiliating result turns up is not a particularly high cost and demonstrating respect for those who have had to do a harder job than yourself is not an unreasonable ask. I will accept that some people do not feel that need to demonstrate respect, but I'm old-fashioned enough to believe that one should make an attempt to disguise one's character flaws. not sure about that. A serious by-election candidate will frequently get a lot of casework on top of the usual candidate-y stuff, with no guarantee that all the work will bring home the bacon. It was certainly true of Danny Beales in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, he must have been extremely tired by the end of it all, and he didn't win. Yet, he's clearly trying to give it another shot. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 9:38:19 GMT
In Tamworth, the Tories lost 20,139 votes.
Labour gained 811.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 10:07:41 GMT
Just noticed that the Lib Dem and Green candidates accrued exactly the same number of votes! Whilst I'm sure it must have happened before it can't be very common. Can anyone remember the last time two candidates achieved this "feat"?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 10:32:01 GMT
Just noticed that the Lib Dem and Green candidates accrued exactly the same number of votes! Whilst I'm sure it must have happened before it can't be very common. Can anyone remember the last time two candidates achieved this "feat"? Can't find any example going back a few years now. From memory there was a tie at the bottom of the Haltemprice till roll. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2023 10:46:27 GMT
He might have just gone for a pee or whatever Even if he was going for a number two, surely they would have delayed the declaration until he was back? |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 11:17:44 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories! it's the 3rd-largest swing from Conservative to Labour ever in a by-election. Underwhelming is not an appropriate adjective in such a circumstance. Of course it would have been nice for it to have been even larger but it was a very large swing. Indeed so - but the result rather implies that the massive shift to the Tories in Midlands seats and along the East Coast since 2005 has not totally unwound. Compared with 2005 this result shows a very small swing to the Tories.. It does have implications for Labour's ability to pick up seats such as - Cannock - Warwickshire North - Leicestershire NW - Bassetlaw - Grimsby - Great Yarmouth et al. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 20, 2023 11:26:54 GMT
Worth pointing out that the weather here yesterday was terrible, just like Rutherglen a fortnight ago.
In both cases, it might have shaved a few points off not just the turnout but the pro-Labour swing as well.
And yes, that is maybe an indicator that there isn't *massive* positive enthusiasm for Labour out there - but this is a fairly rare event overall. Even pre-1997, the predominant mood was "just get the Tories out" and quite a few moaned about Blair not offering more. His stratospheric ratings only came *after* he had won.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 20, 2023 12:09:58 GMT
it's the 3rd-largest swing from Conservative to Labour ever in a by-election. Underwhelming is not an appropriate adjective in such a circumstance. Of course it would have been nice for it to have been even larger but it was a very large swing. Indeed so - but the result rather implies that the massive shift to the Tories in Midlands seats and along the East Coast since 2005 has not totally unwound. Compared with 2005 this result shows a very small swing to the Tories.. It does have implications for Labour's ability to pick up seats such as - Cannock - Warwickshire North - Leicestershire NW - Bassetlaw - Grimsby - Great Yarmouth et al. But with shifts in other parts of the country over all those years Labour likely do not need the likes of Tamworth to win a majority |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Oct 20, 2023 12:36:27 GMT
it's the 3rd-largest swing from Conservative to Labour ever in a by-election. Underwhelming is not an appropriate adjective in such a circumstance. Of course it would have been nice for it to have been even larger but it was a very large swing. Indeed so - but the result rather implies that the massive shift to the Tories in Midlands seats and along the East Coast since 2005 has not totally unwound. Compared with 2005 this result shows a very small swing to the Tories.. It does have implications for Labour's ability to pick up seats such as - Cannock - Warwickshire North - Leicestershire NW - Bassetlaw - Grimsby - Great Yarmouth et al. Yes, the notion that we're to return to 2005 political geography seems unfounded, as though the last 10 years didn't happen or didn't result in changes in voting habits. I think this will result in close seconds for Labour in many of the seats you've mentioned, but overall won't impede a Labour majority, just the scale of such a win. However, it will be costly for the Conservatives as these seats will still have to be fought as marginals to be held. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 20, 2023 13:17:24 GMT
Indeed so - but the result rather implies that the massive shift to the Tories in Midlands seats and along the East Coast since 2005 has not totally unwound. Compared with 2005 this result shows a very small swing to the Tories.. It does have implications for Labour's ability to pick up seats such as - Cannock - Warwickshire North - Leicestershire NW - Bassetlaw - Grimsby - Great Yarmouth et al. Yes, the notion that we're to return to 2005 political geography seems unfounded, as though the last 10 years didn't happen or didn't result in changes in voting habits. I think this will result in close seconds for Labour in many of the seats you've mentioned, but overall won't impede a Labour majority, just the scale of such a win. However, it will be costly for the Conservatives as these seats will still have to be fought as marginals to be held. Over optimism on your part I feel. The political landscape is not static but changing with demographic trends Yes, Labour may not regain a number of seats lost in 2010 but are likely to gain plenty of others which were not won in 2005 or earlier. |
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