iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 1:45:39 GMT
Labour - 11,719 (45.8%)
Conservative - 10,403 (40.7%)
Reform UK - 1,373 (5.4%)
Britain First - 580 (2.3%)
UKIP - 436 (1.7%)
Lib Dem - 417 (1.6%)
Green - 417 (1.6%)
OMRLP - 155 (0.6%)
No Description - 86 (0.3%)
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 1:47:23 GMT
I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour - if the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 20, 2023 1:50:38 GMT
'Oh, well, if Reform hadn't stood, their 1373 votes would have gone to the Conservatives, and the seat would have been held. When will these minor parties learn that standing only hands the election to their worst nightmare?'.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 1:50:47 GMT
23.9% swing
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 1:52:13 GMT
Only sour note is the Britain First vote  |
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Post by willpower3 on Oct 20, 2023 1:52:42 GMT
'Oh, well, if Reform hadn't stood, their 1373 votes would have gone to the Conservatives, and the seat would have been held. When will these minor parties learn that standing only hands the election to their worst nightmare?'. Sam Coates put out that line just now. |
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Post by redvers on Oct 20, 2023 1:52:42 GMT
I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour - if the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map. 23.9% swing to Labour. Second biggest swing to Labour since the war. I think we're doing fine, thank you. |
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Post by brianj on Oct 20, 2023 1:53:17 GMT
I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour - if the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map. 23.9 percent is a hell of a swing. It's more an index of just how weak Labour has become in this area, and yes, the map will look rather strange. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2023 1:53:57 GMT
Surely this can't be right. If Labour are winning there we are winning by 5k+ and probably closer to 10 I would think. I expect Labour to win Flitwick, Barton, whichever ward we got councillors elected in (Shefford?) and at a push Ampthill on an even split. I also wonder if some of the traditional Labour vote in the Marston Vale might re-emerge? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 20, 2023 1:54:24 GMT
Only sour note is the Britain First vote Worrying. Very NF-during-70s level of support. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Oct 20, 2023 1:57:10 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories!
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Post by brianj on Oct 20, 2023 1:58:48 GMT
The NF candidate won 475 votes in the closest thing to a predecessor constituency (Lichfield and Tamworth) in 1979.
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Post by agbutler on Oct 20, 2023 1:58:50 GMT
A less impressive Labour win than the party achieved at three elections 1997 - 2010. A bit underwhelming really. The Tories polled 41% compared with just 37% in 2005. Compared with 2005 it actually represents a small swing to the Tories! What about if you compare it to something relevant? |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 20, 2023 1:59:24 GMT
OTOH is the 2nd biggest Con > Lab swing since the war!
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 4,379
Member is Online
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 20, 2023 2:01:03 GMT
I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour - if the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map. You said it yourself ‘ex-marginal‘, this isn’t the swing seat it was from the 50s to the 2010s, and will probably go Tory at the next election if they narrow the polls a couple of points between now and then. Realignment means this is akin to taking a safe seat (though the new town phenomenon of an abundance of swing voters did make it admittedly slightly easier) Don’t fall for all the stuff being peddled on the BBC / Sky of this being a ‘must win’, it really was not. It was a huge mountain to climb, and the aim was to put the Tories on the back foot and create a sense of inevitability with a year to a GE. Job done! |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 2:01:14 GMT
I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour - if the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map. 23.9% swing to Labour. Second biggest swing to Labour since the war. I think we're doing fine, thank you. My point was not to do down the Labour performance - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Oct 20, 2023 2:02:23 GMT
I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour - if the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map. You said it yourself ‘ex-marginal‘, this isn’t the swing seat it was from the 50s to the 2010s, and will probably go Tory at the next election if they narrow the polls a couple of points between now and then. Realignment means this is akin to taking a safe seat. Don’t fall for all the stuff being peddled on the BBC / Sky of this being a ‘must win’, it really was not. It was a huge mountain to climb, and the aim was to put the Tories on the back foot and create a sense of inevitability with a year to a GE. Job done! I have clearly expressed myself badly given how my post is being jumped on by a few people! I was merely making a point about the shape of the next election, and where Labour's targets will be - this is obviously a spectacular result for the Labour Party. |
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Post by matureleft on Oct 20, 2023 2:21:50 GMT
From her interview Labour looks to have found someone pretty good here. She’s got about a year to build a strong organisation and profile in the seat to retain it in a much higher turnout.
I wouldn’t write off the possibility. While the years since Labour last won there haven’t been good for the party in this kind of seat it’s essentially a two-party constituency with people being familiar with movement between those parties. And the fundamental economic and social demographics haven’t changed a lot. Brexit and culture wars don’t make you a lot more affluent or improve the key services that you need.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 2:33:06 GMT
Nick “The Flying Brick” Delves has just texted me to say that Alan Hope’s “legs have gone” because of “too much campaigning” which is why he’s in hospital. So not too serious then.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 20, 2023 2:39:20 GMT
'Oh, well, if Reform hadn't stood, their 1373 votes would have gone to the Conservatives, and the seat would have been held. When will these minor parties learn that standing only hands the election to their worst nightmare?'. Sam Coates put out that line just now. It was not the candidacy of the Reform Party which did that. It was the voters. The idea that those 1,373 voters would otherwise have magically voted Conservative (and held the seat) is a naive delusion. The fact that 1,373 people voted Reform is distracting from the elephant in the room, which is that 19,000 former Conservative voters (from 2019) did not vote at all. In other words, if those 1,373 voters (or the 19,000 non-voters) had wanted to stop Labour from winning, it would have been very easy for them to do so. Guess what? They didn’t. Isn’t FPTP great? |
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