Prediction Competition July 2023

[kevinf]

Tuesday 4th July
Cambridge
Lab 35, LD 30, Con 20, Green 15

I’ll let Robbie work his magic on the figures as usual.

[Richard Cromwell]

King's Hedges, Cambridge

LAB	44%
CON	26%
GRN	18%
LDEM	12%

[batman]

CAMBRIDGE, King's Hedges : Lab 43 C 38 LD 10 Green 9

KENT, Maidstone C :  LD 36 C 28 Lab 15 Green 10 RefUK 7 Ind 4

S.LANARKSHIRE, E.Kilbride W. : Lab 35 SNP 25 C 16 Green 9 LD 7 Ind 6 SFP 2. Labour win on transfers

[andrewp]

Cambridge. Kings Hedges Lab 40 Con 27 LD 18 Green 15

[corradino]

Cambridge, Kings Hedges: Lab 33, Con 32, LD 20, Green 15.

[Robert Waller]

Cambridge, Kings Hedges: Lab 34, Con 28, LD 24, Green 14.

[peterl]

Cambridge, Kings Hedges: Lab 38, LD 25, Con 22, Green 15.

[iainbhx]

Cambridge DC, Kings Hedges: Lab 35, Con 33, LD 18, Green 14.

[The Bishop]

Looks like a few regulars have missed this one....

[Robert Waller]

Plus the organiser!

[kevinf]

Am going to get Thursday’s in early:
Kent
LD 40, Con 30, Lab 15, Green 10, Reform 4, Ind 1
South Lanarkshire
Lab 36, SNP 27, Con 23, Green 7, LD 3.5, Ind 2, SFP 1.5

[robbienicoll]

There are 15 by-elections to be held during July.

- 1 by-election on 4 July
- 2 on 6 July
- 4 on 13 July
- 3 on 20 July
- 5 on 27 July

5 by-elections are for unitary authorities, 3 last contested in May and 2 in 2021
3 are for county councils, all last contested in 2021
2 are for district councils, both last contested in May
2 are for a London borough council last contested in 2022
1 is for a metropolitan borough last contested in 2021
1 is for a Welsh authority last contested in 2022
1 is for a Scottish authority last contested in 2022

Labour defend 7 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 4 a resignation
Conservatives defend 5 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor, 1 a resignation and 1 a disqualification (sitting as an Independent)
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
SNP defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 15 candidates for the Conservatives, 13 Labour and Liberal Democrats, 9 Greens, 5 Reform UK and 2 TUSC along with 1 apiece for the SNP, Scottish Greens, Scottish Family Party, Heritage Party, Yorkshire Party and Plaid Cymru together with 9 Independents contesting 9 elections – a total of 72 candidates for 15 seats.

Apologies for the delay on the above going out – been well off it with holidays the past couple of weeks but hopefully back to normal service now. Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[johnloony]

CAMBRIDGE, King’s Hedges: Lab 700 Con 550 LD 250 Grn 300
KENT, Maidstone Central: Con 2100 LD 1800 Lab 1300 Grn 1100 RefUK 200 Ind 100
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE, East Kilbride West: Con 800 Grn 200 SNP 1100 IndKK 100 SFP 50 LD 100 Lab 1400

CAMBRIDGE, King’s Hedges: Lab 39 Con 31 LD 13 Grn 17
KENT, Maidstone Central: Con 32 LD 27 Lab 20 Grn 17 RefUK 2 Ind 2
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE, East Kilbride West: Con 21 Grn 6 SNP 29 IndKK 2 SFP 1 LD 4 Lab 37 (Labour gain)

[batman]

you know the Cambridge election is tonight don't you John?

[robbienicoll]

9 entries for tonight's contest, unfortunately John was timed out but I've included his entry for comparison, otherwise all on time and correct. Incidentally for future reference the point of time out is 7pm.

King's Hedges, Cambridge: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (corradino) to 18% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jk5whvnHIHfuPzjyQHilx20jhub3dylFVEIheCUy85k/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

Jul 4, 2023 20:19:25 GMT batman said:

you know the Cambridge election is tonight don't you John?

Whoa, wait, what? No! Since when? Did they suddenly bring it forwards by two days just to sabotage my attempt in the prediction competition? This is clear grounds for an election petition. Local authority election departments aren’t allowed to change the date of an election part way through the timetable on a whim, just because they think it’s a fun idea to annoy psephologists(!).

[batman]

I'm afraid not, it was always scheduled for yesterday

[robbienicoll]

Jul 4, 2023 21:13:08 GMT robbienicoll said:

9 entries for tonight's contest, unfortunately John was timed out but I've included his entry for comparison, otherwise all on time and correct. Incidentally for future reference the point of time out is 7pm.

King's Hedges, Cambridge: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (corradino) to 18% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jk5whvnHIHfuPzjyQHilx20jhub3dylFVEIheCUy85k/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

Results are now up.

[andrewp]

Kent. Maidstone Central. LD 34 Con 23 Lab 22 Green 17 Ind 2 RefUK 2

South Lanarkshire, East Kilbride West. Lab 40 SNP 27 Con 18 Green 5 LD 5 Ind 3 SFP 2. Lab win

[Robert Waller]

Kent. Maidstone Central. LD 37 Con 25 Lab 18.5 Green 17 Ind 0.5 RefUK 2

South Lanarkshire, East Kilbride West. Lab 36 SNP 29 Con 24 Green 4 LD 3 Ind 2.5 SFP 1.5. Lab win