Prediction Competition July 2023

[wallington]

Hi, I'm not taking part in the predictions competition, so no need to score me or deduct for being late lol.

Just put these together as I was killing a few minutes during my lunch break.

Newham, Boleyn:
LAB - 41
GRN - 33
CON - 11
IND - 8
REF - 4
LD - 3

Newham, Wall End:
LAB - 62
CON - 21
GRN - 8
LD - 5
REF 4

Norfolk, West Depwade
CON - 37
GRN - 32
IND - 17
LAB - 8
LD - 6

Rotherham, Dinnington
LAB - 34
CON - 25
IND - 20
LD - 7
REF - 6
YP - 5
GRN - 3

[robbienicoll]

We have 9 entries for this week (although I've also included wallington's entries which won't impact upon the competition itself), missing manchesterman, all on time and correct.

Boleyn, Newham: 100% Labour hold, majorities ranging from 8% (wallington) to 47% (Richard Cromwell).

Wall End, Newham: 100% Labour hold, majorities ranging from 31% (kevinf) to 54% (Richard Cromwell).

West Depwade, Norfolk: 8 Conservative hold, with kevinf Independent (Spratt) gain and Robert Waller Liberal Democrat gain.

Dinnington, Rotherham: 9 Labour gain from Conservative, with kevinf Conservative hold (3% majority).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lk_qpKF2-fcQ_KBGFI4IXWWMdSsyT0-6qcNoLVHeehw/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[iainbhx]

Comgrats to Robert Waller for the week and taking the lead for the month.

Boleyn was painful for everyone.

[manchesterman]

..says Henry VIII

[Robert Waller]

Jul 14, 2023 12:35:20 GMT iainbhx said:

Comgrats to Robert Waller for the week and taking the lead for the month.

Boleyn was painful for everyone.

Thanks very much!
But I think it says much that I managed to come least worst while still getting three of the four winners wrong!

[batman]

CEREDIGION, Llanfarian : LD 55 PC 31 C 14

SWINDON, St Margaret & S.Marston : Lab 55 C 45

WORCESTER, Nunnery : Lab 47 C 35 LD 12 Ind 6

[borisminor]

Ceredigion

Llanfarian

LD - 55.0%
PC - 40.0%
C - 5.0%

Swindon

St Margaret and South Marston

Lab - 60.0%
C - 40.0%

Worcester

Nuffield

Lab - 55.0%
C - 30.0%
Ind - 10.0%
LD - 5%

[batman]

nice round figures

[manchesterman]

before we get into our predictions, are there any planning application or similar NIMBY disputes we need to be aware of?

[corradino]

Ceredigion, Llanfarian: LD 59,PC 31, Con 10.

Swindon, St Margaret and S.Marston: Lab 58, Con 42.

Worcester, Nunnery: Lab 49, Con 38, LD 8, Ind 5.

[kevinf]

Ceredigion
LibDem 51, PC 44, Con 5
Swindon
Lab 60, Con 40
Worcester
Lab 50, Con 27, LibDem 18, Ind 5

[johnloony]

Ceredigion: LD 62 PC 28 Con 10
Swindon: Lab 56 Con 40
Worcester: Lab 53 Con 30 LD 13 Ind 4

[manchesterman]

Ceredigion: LD 52, PC 33, Con 15

Swindon: Lab 57, Con 43

Worcester: Lab 47, Con 36, LD 12, Ind 5

[iain]

A bit surprised that everyone has gone for a Lib Dem hold in Ceredigion so far. Not that I have any particular insight, but we haven’t been doing great there recently, and this does feel like an “anything could happen” by-election.

[Richard Cromwell]

Llanfarian, Ceredigion

LDEM	64%
Plaid Cymru	33%
CON	3%

St Margaret and South Marston, Swindon

LAB	58%
CON	42%

Nunnery, Worcester

LAB	54%
CON	33%
LDEM	7%
IND	6%

[andrewp]

Ceredigion. Llanfarian, LD 58 PC 30 Con 12
Swindon. St Margaret and South Marston Lab 64 Con 36
Worcester. Nunnery. Lab 55 Con 31 LD 8 Ind 6

[Robert Waller]

Ceredigion. Llanfarian, LD 54 PC 40 Con 6

Swindon. St Margaret and South Marston Lab 61 Con 39

Worcester. Nunnery. Lab 52 Con 27 LD 16 Ind 5

[peterl]

Ceredigion. Llanfarian, LD 58 PC 37 Con 5

Swindon. St Margaret and South Marston Lab 63 Con 37

Worcester. Nunnery. Lab 48 Con 27 LD 21 Ind 4

[iainbhx]

Ceredigion WUA, Llanfarian: LDm 48 PC 44 Con 8
Swindon UA, St Margaret and South Marston: Lab 63 Con 37
Worcester DC, Nunnery: Lab 52 Con 30 LDm 11 Ind 7

[robbienicoll]

11 entries this week, with a maiden appearance from borisminor and a return from manchesterman. All on time, but johnloony picks up 4 faults for going under in Swindon.

Llanfarian, Ceredigion: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (iainbhx) to 34% (johnloony).

St Margaret and South Marston, Swindon: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (batman) to 28% (andrewp).

Nunnery, Worcester: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 11% (corradino and manchesterman) to 25% (borisminor and Robert Waller).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rkOb3KR3XYgwmCaspK5BppCWC3rtrfQF0saS0Eq9XiU/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!