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Post by aargauer on Jun 10, 2023 14:59:42 GMT
On the other hand that could split the opposition in Mid Beds. Copium cheap in Switzerland? It's entirely possible that the Tories can hold a swiftly-held Mid Beds by-election with the right candidate. Allowing the LibDems loose for 3 months over the summer is just self-harming by the Tories. I meant in the sense that it's possible labour win with a quick by election but that the Lib Dem machine muddies the waters on who is the best placed challenger which makes it easier for the tories to hold on. I mean, this probably isn't the most likely scenario - yours is - but it's far from impossible we end up with labour as the main anti tory party here. |
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Post by londonw5er on Jun 10, 2023 16:21:20 GMT
I wonder what effect ULEZ expansion could have here? If the JR is successful, and we will know in about 3 weeks or so, will that give the Tories a boost? Assuming the election date is before it is implemented, the Tories will undoubtedly try to make the vote a referendum on it. I believe Labour in Hillingdon have opposed the expansion so their candidate may say he opposes it too or he may be told to avoid the issue so as not to embarrass the Mayor. Either way it will be a vote loser to some extent. Only a small number of voters will actually have to pay the ULEZ but for those that do it will be a big issue and in some cases will affect their vote. As I posted earlier, I believe the Tories' chances are being underestimated here. It is not a typical London seat. It is both relatively affluent and Leave voting and full of the sort of people (e.g. Telegraph and Mail reading types) who are still staying loyal to the Tories, unlike the Remain voting professionals and working-class Leavers who previously supported them and are deserting in much larger numbers. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jun 11, 2023 6:44:19 GMT
Votes cast last year in Uxbridge & South Ruislip per Pete Whitehead numbers Con 13945. 51.5% Lab 9341. 34.5% Grn. 2148. 7.9% LD 539. 2.0% Ind 298. 1.1% SDP 239. 0.9% NHA 219. 0.8% UKIP 199. 0.7% TUSC 165. 0.6% That's a healthy green vote share for Labour to tap into. I think it will be quite close - with Labour probably coming out in front. Unlike other parts of London, W London Tories have avoided the bloodbath of losing long-standing councils, with Hillingdon holding up relatively well last year - and a good gain in nearby Harrow. And there's an opportunity for the Tories to tap into the local electorate's anger about ULEZ. Harrow was to do with specific circumstances though - Labour losing their hold on the "Indian" vote. What's the demographic breakdown in Uxbridge? |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 11, 2023 7:01:54 GMT
Copium cheap in Switzerland? It's entirely possible that the Tories can hold a swiftly-held Mid Beds by-election with the right candidate. Allowing the LibDems loose for 3 months over the summer is just self-harming by the Tories. I meant in the sense that it's possible labour win with a quick by election but that the Lib Dem machine muddies the waters on who is the best placed challenger which makes it easier for the tories to hold on. I mean, this probably isn't the most likely scenario - yours is - but it's far from impossible we end up with labour as the main anti tory party here. Oh sorry, I see what you mean. Yes, that's possible, but it was avoided in North Shropshire fairly quickly and I expect the same framing to be used here, although the biggest initial assistance there was the selection of the Tory candidate*. * I know Neil slightly, he's not a bad chap and would probably be a decent MP, but he wasn't the right candidate for a by-election in that seat by a very long way. Nor was he the worst on the short list. |
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olympian95
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Post by olympian95 on Jun 11, 2023 7:30:00 GMT
Votes cast last year in Uxbridge & South Ruislip per Pete Whitehead numbers Con 13945. 51.5% Lab 9341. 34.5% Grn. 2148. 7.9% LD 539. 2.0% Ind 298. 1.1% SDP 239. 0.9% NHA 219. 0.8% UKIP 199. 0.7% TUSC 165. 0.6% That's a healthy green vote share for Labour to tap into. I think it will be quite close - with Labour probably coming out in front. Unlike other parts of London, W London Tories have avoided the bloodbath of losing long-standing councils, with Hillingdon holding up relatively well last year - and a good gain in nearby Harrow. And there's an opportunity for the Tories to tap into the local electorate's anger about ULEZ. That's my instinct, a Lab win but not huge by any means. And they will have to work for it. |
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Post by batman on Jun 11, 2023 9:00:44 GMT
That's a healthy green vote share for Labour to tap into. I think it will be quite close - with Labour probably coming out in front. Unlike other parts of London, W London Tories have avoided the bloodbath of losing long-standing councils, with Hillingdon holding up relatively well last year - and a good gain in nearby Harrow. And there's an opportunity for the Tories to tap into the local electorate's anger about ULEZ. Harrow was to do with specific circumstances though - Labour losing their hold on the "Indian" vote. What's the demographic breakdown in Uxbridge? there are some wards with quite a lot of Gujarati Hindus (Hillingdon East for example) but it isn't a predominant demographic as in Harrow East in particular. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 11, 2023 9:28:14 GMT
And there's an opportunity for the Tories to tap into the local electorate's anger about ULEZ. Labour can surely deflect that to some extent by saying "you will get the chance to vote on that next year, don't let the Tories at Westminster off the hook now". |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 11, 2023 19:39:08 GMT
Loads of Labour MPs on the campaign trail this weekend here. Judging by pics, I saw at least
Meg Hillier
Ellie Reeves
John McDonnell
Virendra Sharma
Abena Oppong-Asare
Rupa Huq
Ruth Cadbury
Andy Slaughter
Seema Malhotra
Shabana Mahmood
Jon Ashworth
James Murray
Thangam Debbonaire
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jun 11, 2023 19:47:02 GMT
I think people are paying too much attention to local elections. They were quite good for Labour last year as they cut the Tory lead borough-wide by 9%. The real problem began in 2018 when Labour actually lost seats to the Tories despite on paper being well positioned for gains. That abysmal performance didn’t mean much for the 2019 general election, where there was a decidedly weak swing to the Conservatives. Perhaps the local council is popular, perhaps Labour are disorganised, whatever it is it hasn’t impacted national voting patterns significantly yet and probably won’t at the by-election either.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2023 20:46:31 GMT
Loads of Labour MPs on the campaign trail this weekend here. Judging by pics, I saw at least Meg Hillier Ellie Reeves John McDonnell Virendra Sharma Abena Oppong-Asare Rupa Huq Ruth Cadbury Andy Slaughter Seema Malhotra Shabana Mahmood Jon Ashworth James Murray Thangam Debbonaire That lot should have helped the Conservative vote and prospects quite a bit. |
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Post by batman on Jun 12, 2023 8:10:33 GMT
I think people are paying too much attention to local elections. They were quite good for Labour last year as they cut the Tory lead borough-wide by 9%. The real problem began in 2018 when Labour actually lost seats to the Tories despite on paper being well positioned for gains. That abysmal performance didn’t mean much for the 2019 general election, where there was a decidedly weak swing to the Conservatives. Perhaps the local council is popular, perhaps Labour are disorganised, whatever it is it hasn’t impacted national voting patterns significantly yet and probably won’t at the by-election either. the local council is generally quite well-regarded. The retirement of Cllr Puddefoot has taken the shine off that a little, but it is still fairly popular. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jun 12, 2023 12:47:07 GMT
I was campaigning in Uxbridge earlier this year and I was told the line to take with ULEZ was that Beales agreed with ULEZ but disagreed with how it's being implemented.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 12, 2023 13:32:50 GMT
I was campaigning in Uxbridge earlier this year and I was told the line to take with ULEZ was that Beales agreed with ULEZ but disagreed with how it's being implemented. I have a feeling it would be nearer the mark if you omit the word "how". |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 12, 2023 14:52:48 GMT
Laurence Fox to stand here for Reclaim (with the support of Reform)
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 12, 2023 15:04:55 GMT
Laurence Fox to stand here for Reclaim (with the support of Reform) Makes sense after his Mayoral run tbh - but do they have the funds to run a campaign? |
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Post by jakegb on Jun 12, 2023 16:11:22 GMT
Laurence Fox to stand here for Reclaim (with the support of Reform) Interesting development. Fox - after all - does have same name visibility in London following his shot at the mayoralty. Not the best sort of seat for Reform/Reclaim admittedly: it's no Clacton or Peterborough. But there's a chance they could save their deposit: a feat not achieved since Tice's appearance in Old Bexley (and that was under the Reform banner). |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 12, 2023 16:48:23 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 12, 2023 20:23:10 GMT
Laurence Fox to stand here for Reclaim (with the support of Reform) An interesting consequence of this is that it has caused ructions within the SDP. There's a lot of unease as Reform have a similar arrangement elsewhere with the SDP and many of the SDP membership view Reclaim with a mixture of bafflement and unalloyed horror. It didn't help that some in the SDP were against the Reform pact anyway given their vastly differing views on the economy. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 12, 2023 20:25:55 GMT
Laurence Fox to stand here for Reclaim (with the support of Reform) An interesting consequence of this is that it has caused ructions within the SDP. There's a lot of unease as Reform have a similar arrangement elsewhere with the SDP and many of the SDP membership view Reclaim with a mixture of bafflement and unalloyed horror. It didn't help that some in the SDP were against the Reform pact anyway given their vastly differing views on the economy. Wtf is the the point in the SDP. Are the 3 social democratic parties in parliament not enough already? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 12, 2023 20:30:10 GMT
An interesting consequence of this is that it has caused ructions within the SDP. There's a lot of unease as Reform have a similar arrangement elsewhere with the SDP and many of the SDP membership view Reclaim with a mixture of bafflement and unalloyed horror. It didn't help that some in the SDP were against the Reform pact anyway given their vastly differing views on the economy. Wtf is the the point in the SDP. Are the 3 social democratic parties in parliament not enough already? Well, they're also pretty socially conservative. Sadly, we don't have any soccon parties in Parliament from the mainland😉. |
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