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Post by elinorhelyn on Jun 10, 2023 8:22:12 GMT
Apologies if I've missed this, but when is this by-election likely to take place? Mid to late July. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 10, 2023 8:25:21 GMT
Apologies if I've missed this, but when is this by-election likely to take place? I don't think we know yet. Formally I don't think there is even a vacancy yet, as I haven't seen Northstead or Chiltern Hundreds announcements. My guess is that Johnson will be formally appointed to the Chiltern Hundreds (and Dorries to Northstead) on Monday, and the writ moved some time later in the week. The by-election is then between 21 and 27 working days after the writ is moved, so if it is moved by Wednesday, then the by-election could be on Thursday 13 July, but perhaps 20 July is more likely. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 10, 2023 8:45:15 GMT
Apologies if I've missed this, but when is this by-election likely to take place? It will likely take place in September. The Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-elections will likely be scheduled for the same day as this by-election. |
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Post by agbutler on Jun 10, 2023 8:52:05 GMT
Apologies if I've missed this, but when is this by-election likely to take place? It will likely take place in September. The Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-elections will likely be scheduled for the same day as this by-election. Why would Rutherglen be the same day? There's a whole 6 week long process to go through there that these two do not have. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2023 8:53:51 GMT
Apologies if I've missed this, but when is this by-election likely to take place? It will likely take place in September. The Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-elections will likely be scheduled for the same day as this by-election. I think I’ve seen 20 July mentioned for Mid Beds and Uxbridge. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 10, 2023 9:03:23 GMT
Apologies if I've missed this, but when is this by-election likely to take place? It will likely take place in September. The Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-elections will likely be scheduled for the same day as this by-election. I think that unlikely. Assuming both Johnson and Dorries are appointed to Stewardships early next week, the Conservatives have nothing to gain by delaying until September two difficult byelections. They will want to have them done before the summer recess so that there's more chance the Autumn conference season will be seen as drawing a line under the Johnson era. I'd say the tight deadline to apply for the Conservative candidacy backs that theory up. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 10, 2023 9:06:51 GMT
Agree with Davıd Boothroyd Also do the Tories really want to give the Lib Dems a long run-up in Mid Beds? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 10, 2023 9:35:15 GMT
I wonder if Boris Johnson will be the first holder of the office whose previous constituency and current constituency both border the Chiltern Hundreds
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 10, 2023 10:04:55 GMT
One must assume that Johnson has a personal plan in his actions. He is earning good money and he desperately needs that. This step will only increase his earning potential. He is (explicitly within the statement) presuming a Tory defeat, if not necessarily a Labour victory, in the forthcoming election. This removes him from that experience. He protects the illusion that he personally won a majority and that the electorate never lost faith. He will play the role of a seeming supporter, turning up to back his circle while offering faint praise to the current leadership. I would expect him to fight a by-election that I’m sure would be facilitated after the election and then seek the leadership once more. Depending on quite how bad the Tory losses are he might well win. Whatever government is in place will be struggling with adverse circumstances (and the consequences of this government from which he can, in some minds, be distanced). The one thing of which one can be sure is that he’ll be egocentric. His political life has been thin on principle or any other fixed points. Unless, of course, the Tories do to him what Starmer has done to Corbyn. And that could yet happen. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 10, 2023 10:11:09 GMT
Apologies if I've missed this, but when is this by-election likely to take place? It will likely take place in September. The Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-elections will likely be scheduled for the same day as this by-election. That suggestion is as ridiculous as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping trying to rape a rhinoceros. I expect the two current vacant seats to have by-elections as soon as possible, before the end of July. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 10, 2023 10:25:20 GMT
What happens if you give the Big Yellow By-Election Machine an entire summer to play in a seat?
Defeat is what happens. You get these underway as fast as possible.
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Post by aargauer on Jun 10, 2023 11:27:05 GMT
What happens if you give the Big Yellow By-Election Machine an entire summer to play in a seat? Defeat is what happens. You get these underway as fast as possible. On the other hand that could split the opposition in Mid Beds. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 10, 2023 11:44:40 GMT
I guess the first question is can/will the committee recommend a suspension even if the member is no longer a member? I think John Bercow is a precedent, so they will still publish the report along with whatever suspension they recommended. The IEP didn’t exactly recommend a suspension (or in fact an expulsion) did they? They said they would have done if he were still a sitting MP. It looks like they did similarly for Mike Hill and Keith Vaz. I’m not sure if there are any examples from the Committee on Standards or of Privileges. (Although I see that for Vaz, as everyone was expecting an imminent dissolution, the Committee on Standards wrote to the Leader of the House noting that any suspension only applies to this parliament requesting that the House vote on his recommended six month suspension again at the start of the next Parliament “if he continues to be a member”). |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 10, 2023 11:49:09 GMT
What happens if you give the Big Yellow By-Election Machine an entire summer to play in a seat? Defeat is what happens. You get these underway as fast as possible. On the other hand that could split the opposition in Mid Beds. Copium cheap in Switzerland? It's entirely possible that the Tories can hold a swiftly-held Mid Beds by-election with the right candidate. Allowing the LibDems loose for 3 months over the summer is just self-harming by the Tories. |
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jun 10, 2023 12:43:41 GMT
When was the last time an MP resigned mid-term for a second time? Can't be a common occurrence by any means.
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 10, 2023 13:11:11 GMT
It will likely take place in September. The Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-elections will likely be scheduled for the same day as this by-election. That suggestion is as ridiculous as an asthmatic ant with heavy shopping trying to rape a rhinoceros. I'm tempted to steal this. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Jun 10, 2023 13:56:56 GMT
Local councillors in constituency:
15 Con + 3 in a ward that's half in
3 Lab
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2023 14:00:51 GMT
Local councillors in constituency: 15 Con + 3 in a ward that's half in 3 Lab Votes cast last year in Uxbridge & South Ruislip per Pete Whitehead numbers Con 13945. 51.5% Lab 9341. 34.5% Grn. 2148. 7.9% LD 539. 2.0% Ind 298. 1.1% SDP 239. 0.9% NHA 219. 0.8% UKIP 199. 0.7% TUSC 165. 0.6% |
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Post by adlai52 on Jun 10, 2023 14:06:01 GMT
Local councillors in constituency: 15 Con + 3 in a ward that's half in 3 Lab Votes cast last year in Uxbridge & South Ruislip per Pete Whitehead numbers Con 13945. 51.5% Lab 9341. 34.5% Grn. 2148. 7.9% LD 539. 2.0% Ind 298. 1.1% SDP 239. 0.9% NHA 219. 0.8% UKIP 199. 0.7% TUSC 165. 0.6% This is why Labour should be cautious, this is the type of London seat that still has a high floor for the Tory vote. That said, the Tory position has deteriorated considerably since the last locals in the area. |
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Post by jakegb on Jun 10, 2023 14:34:22 GMT
Local councillors in constituency: 15 Con + 3 in a ward that's half in 3 Lab Votes cast last year in Uxbridge & South Ruislip per Pete Whitehead numbers Con 13945. 51.5% Lab 9341. 34.5% Grn. 2148. 7.9% LD 539. 2.0% Ind 298. 1.1% SDP 239. 0.9% NHA 219. 0.8% UKIP 199. 0.7% TUSC 165. 0.6% That's a healthy green vote share for Labour to tap into. I think it will be quite close - with Labour probably coming out in front. Unlike other parts of London, W London Tories have avoided the bloodbath of losing long-standing councils, with Hillingdon holding up relatively well last year - and a good gain in nearby Harrow. And there's an opportunity for the Tories to tap into the local electorate's anger about ULEZ. |
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