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Post by threecrowns on Jul 21, 2023 5:11:22 GMT
The absence of students from Brunel may be causing Labour some worries too. These were a major factor in the surge to Labour which occurred here in 2017, with their candidate then making a big push to register especially foreign students (those qualified to vote due to archaic laws relating to Commonwealth citizenship). There were over 10,000 students recorded here at the last census. I think their absence made the difference, if this election were in October Labour would have won by a couple of thousand votes. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 21, 2023 5:50:24 GMT
The joke doing the rounds on Lib Dem Twitter is that allegedly Labour didn't provide food for activists doing GOTV, but ordered in pizza for paid staff only.
The gag being that finally Starmer has adopted a genuine Socialist policy - ie starving the masses.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 21, 2023 5:54:03 GMT
A good surprise to wake up to. We were told it was all but gone already. A lesson there for socialist hubris, you can't take someone's vote for granted if you're simultaneously kicking them in the gut.
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Post by spinach on Jul 21, 2023 5:55:54 GMT
While my car is ULEZ compliant, I know several people who need to buy new cars (during a cost of living crisis) as they own slightly older diesel cars. The policy seems unfair as it seems to target poorer people with old cars and small businesses.
Outer London is different to inner London. Like many other people, I need my car to get around due to the lack of bus, train and tube services where I live. However despite this, Sadiq Khan seems to be pushing a range of anti-car policies which will affect many car owning in Outer London who rely on their cars.
Most cars are compliant, but what future anti-car policies will Sadiq Khan implement? Could more petrol cars like mine become non-ULEZ or will all cars (apart from electric) be eventually charged? There has also been talks of road pricing in the future, which will add more costs to our everyday living expenses.
I’m not an Uxbridge resident and I’m a resident of another outer London neighbourhood. But I can imagine many residents of Uxbridge feel the same as me.
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right
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2023 6:14:39 GMT
A good surprise to wake up to. We were told it was all but gone already. A lesson there for socialist hubris, you can't take someone's vote for granted if you're simultaneously kicking them in the gut. It was more than socialist hubris - I think most of us had written this one off as well |
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Post by mattb on Jul 21, 2023 6:17:48 GMT
95% of the worries about ULEZ will dissipate once it has been in for a few weeks and the vast majority realise it does not directly affect them. The few weeks in the lead-up are the time of maximum worry/fear of the imminent unknown. Once again, we see that Boris is not as stupid (or as haphazard) as he looks.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 21, 2023 6:22:16 GMT
A good surprise to wake up to. We were told it was all but gone already. A lesson there for socialist hubris, you can't take someone's vote for granted if you're simultaneously kicking them in the gut. It was more than socialist hubris - I think most of us had written this one off as well I doubt if the Mayor thought a by-election at all likely in this seat when he launched this policy... So no hubris really. But it gave a good opportunity for a local referendum and people took it. Fair enough. Elections (particularly by-elections, where the consequences are very modest) are for people to use as they please, exasperating though that might be for politicians. |
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Post by spinach on Jul 21, 2023 6:44:32 GMT
95% of the worries about ULEZ will dissipate once it has been in for a few weeks and the vast majority realise it does not directly affect them. The few weeks in the lead-up are the time of maximum worry/fear of the imminent unknown. Once again, we see that Boris is not as stupid (or as haphazard) as he looks. I’m sure it was a worry for those who had to spend several thousands pounds replacing their perfectly fine cars or vans during a cost of living crisis. Plus there’s a worry ULEZ could be expanded to cover more cars in the future or other road pricing schemes could be implemented. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 21, 2023 6:44:36 GMT
At the end of the day Uxbridge wasn't a marginal seat even in 1997. Selby (on the old boundaries, which it will return to next election) was a Labour gain. ULEZ can't be a single issue wedge in a general election. Uxbridge is now a marginal seat, dead set gain in a general. Wouldn't be surprised if Selby goes back Tory and Uxbridge is a Labour gain in a general. All is not lost.
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right
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2023 6:49:52 GMT
It was more than socialist hubris - I think most of us had written this one off as well I doubt if the Mayor thought a by-election at all likely in this seat when he launched this policy... So no hubris really. But it gave a good opportunity for a local referendum and people took it. Fair enough. Elections (particularly by-elections, where the consequences are very modest) are for people to use as they please, exasperating though that might be for politicians. Fair enough on the local referendum In the dog days of the mid 1990s we tried to create local referendums then as well, but voters weren't listening except in a few council elections |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 6:51:59 GMT
At the end of the day Uxbridge wasn't a marginal seat even in 1997. Selby (on the old boundaries, which it will return to next election) was a Labour gain. ULEZ can't be a single issue wedge in a general election. Uxbridge is now a marginal seat, dead set gain in a general. Wouldn't be surprised if Selby goes back Tory and Uxbridge is a Labour gain in a general. All is not lost. Well it's certainly a view |
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Post by mattb on Jul 21, 2023 6:55:20 GMT
At the end of the day Uxbridge wasn't a marginal seat even in 1997. Selby (on the old boundaries, which it will return to next election) was a Labour gain. ULEZ can't be a single issue wedge in a general election. Uxbridge is now a marginal seat, dead set gain in a general. Wouldn't be surprised if Selby goes back Tory and Uxbridge is a Labour gain in a general. All is not lost. Think the boundary changes help Labour in Selby and help the Tories in Uxbridge. For what it's worth. |
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Post by spinach on Jul 21, 2023 7:19:01 GMT
Interesting comment about the Asian voters in seats such as this. Was previously discussed on this thread how the demographics have changed, however maybe this doesn’t harm the Tories as much as we thought.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 21, 2023 7:19:54 GMT
Angela Rayner's comment on the result is quite funny and knowing.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 21, 2023 7:27:22 GMT
Starmer after hearing the Uxbridge result:  |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 21, 2023 7:34:22 GMT
At the end of the day Uxbridge wasn't a marginal seat even in 1997. Selby (on the old boundaries, which it will return to next election) was a Labour gain. ULEZ can't be a single issue wedge in a general election. Uxbridge is now a marginal seat, dead set gain in a general. Wouldn't be surprised if Selby goes back Tory and Uxbridge is a Labour gain in a general. All is not lost. Generally if you can't win a seat in a by election in opposition you don't stand much chance in a general. Certainly with the students back it's possible but it's not a certainty at all. |
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Post by batman on Jul 21, 2023 7:37:44 GMT
The joke doing the rounds on Lib Dem Twitter is that allegedly Labour didn't provide food for activists doing GOTV, but ordered in pizza for paid staff only. The gag being that finally Starmer has adopted a genuine Socialist policy - ie starving the masses. some food was available for all at the Labour HQ I went to, though not much. |
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Post by batman on Jul 21, 2023 7:39:26 GMT
At the end of the day Uxbridge wasn't a marginal seat even in 1997. Selby (on the old boundaries, which it will return to next election) was a Labour gain. ULEZ can't be a single issue wedge in a general election. Uxbridge is now a marginal seat, dead set gain in a general. Wouldn't be surprised if Selby goes back Tory and Uxbridge is a Labour gain in a general. All is not lost. Think the boundary changes help Labour in Selby and help the Tories in Uxbridge. For what it's worth. the change in U&SR has only a very modest partisan effect and would be more than compensated for just by students being around if the election takes place in term-time |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2023 7:49:35 GMT
At the end of the day Uxbridge wasn't a marginal seat even in 1997. Selby (on the old boundaries, which it will return to next election) was a Labour gain. ULEZ can't be a single issue wedge in a general election. Uxbridge is now a marginal seat, dead set gain in a general. Wouldn't be surprised if Selby goes back Tory and Uxbridge is a Labour gain in a general. All is not lost. Generally if you can't win a seat in a by election in opposition you don't stand much chance in a general. Certainly with the students back it's possible but it's not a certainty at all. If you could combine it with Labour being denied a majority in Parliament, Labour winning Uxbridge would be the banter result |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 21, 2023 7:50:33 GMT
I doubt if the Mayor thought a by-election at all likely in this seat when he launched this policy... So no hubris really. But it gave a good opportunity for a local referendum and people took it. Fair enough. Elections (particularly by-elections, where the consequences are very modest) are for people to use as they please, exasperating though that might be for politicians. Fair enough on the local referendum In the dog days of the mid 1990s we tried to create local referendums then as well, but voters weren't listening except in a few council elections Yup. We aren’t in the mid 1990s. Look at the turnouts. While respectable they show little of the voter determination and early decision of that period that showed the Tories as doomed from a distance back from 1997. Most voters are, of course, fed up with this government and some 2019 Tory voters are committed to ejecting them. But the deal is far from closed with Labour or the wider opposition. There’s a lot more lifting to do than Blair’s (New) Labour had in front of them at an equivalent point. And this, plus local election results, suggests a “Vote Conservative, the motorists’ friend” opportunity as a spot in the campaign. They need anything they can grab, plus a fair bit of luck on Sunak’s core promises, but I can see them having a chance of at least preventing a Labour majority, with the help of the simply mountainous task Labour faces in so many individual constituencies to get there. |
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