right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2023 7:51:39 GMT
It was more than socialist hubris - I think most of us had written this one off as well I doubt if the Mayor thought a by-election at all likely in this seat when he launched this policy... So no hubris really. But it gave a good opportunity for a local referendum and people took it. Fair enough. Elections (particularly by-elections, where the consequences are very modest) are for people to use as they please, exasperating though that might be for politicians. The hubris was more about treating this as a nailed on gain I was on the ground in the 1997 byelection and remember that hubris from Labour activists very well |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 7:56:34 GMT
While my car is ULEZ compliant, I know several people who need to buy new cars (during a cost of living crisis) as they own slightly older diesel cars. The policy seems unfair as it seems to target poorer people with old cars and small businesses. Outer London is different to inner London. Like many other people, I need my car to get around due to the lack of bus, train and tube services where I live. However despite this, Sadiq Khan seems to be pushing a range of anti-car policies which will affect many car owning in Outer London who rely on their cars. Most cars are compliant, but what future anti-car policies will Sadiq Khan implement? Could more petrol cars like mine become non-ULEZ or will all cars (apart from electric) be eventually charged? There has also been talks of road pricing in the future, which will add more costs to our everyday living expenses. I’m not an Uxbridge resident and I’m a resident of another outer London neighbourhood. But I can imagine many residents of Uxbridge feel the same as me. Indeed, I bet you haven’t seen any noticeable improvement to public transport in your area of outer London either. Introducing charging needs to be balanced by a package of public transport improvements to assist the modal shift. |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 21, 2023 7:58:22 GMT
Fair enough on the local referendum In the dog days of the mid 1990s we tried to create local referendums then as well, but voters weren't listening except in a few council elections Yup. We aren’t in the mid 1990s. Look at the turnouts. While respectable they show little of the voter determination and early decision of that period that showed the Tories as doomed from a distance back from 1997. Most voters are, of course, fed up with this government and some 2019 Tory voters are committed to ejecting them. But the deal is far from closed with Labour or the wider opposition. There’s a lot more lifting to do than Blair’s (New) Labour had in front of them at an equivalent point. And this, plus local election results, suggests a “Vote Conservative, the motorists’ friend” opportunity as a spot in the campaign. They need anything they can grab, plus a fair bit of luck on Sunak’s core promises, but I can see them having a chance of at least preventing a Labour majority, with the help of the simply mountainous task Labour faces in so many individual constituencies to get there. We saw some of the poorest democrat results last year in edge of conurbation ethnically diverse middle class suburbs. I wonder if that'll become a pattern here. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 21, 2023 7:59:07 GMT
I wonder if this is a kind of reverse Bootle moment for the Monster Raving Loony party
They got Binfaced.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 8:00:08 GMT
95% of the worries about ULEZ will dissipate once it has been in for a few weeks and the vast majority realise it does not directly affect them. The few weeks in the lead-up are the time of maximum worry/fear of the imminent unknown. Once again, we see that Boris is not as stupid (or as haphazard) as he looks. True, a lot of people may be under the misapprehension that they will have to pay to drive their car in outer London when they may actually have a compliant vehicle. That said, getting a tradesperson in a diesel van to pop into the London ULEZ boundary from the likes of North Kent or Essex to do a job will get more difficult and expensive. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 21, 2023 8:02:29 GMT
ULEZ might have been a factor, but I always thought the Conservative vote would hold up due to the Boris factor, even though he was quitting, as his narrative was that he was being got at and that caused everything, which I could see as working as a message in his home constituency. I thought Labour would just sqeak it, but the Tories did.
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Post by batman on Jul 21, 2023 8:08:04 GMT
Credit to the Tories for sticking doggedly with the biggest vote-winning policy they could muster in the circumstances. I fully expect another by-election in the seat or its successor when I'm in my late 80s, and the Tories to win unexpectedly yet again. A few observations from me as someone who worked on several days in the campaign.
1 ) ULEZ was obviously a major issue. At first it seemed as if it was just habitual Tory voters who brought it up, but increasingly this was not the case. Labour's concentrating on the cost of living crisis was much less effective when for a minority, but an important minority, of voters this policy potentially cost them even more financially. I personally had to change my car because of the previous extension of ULEZ, and was very fortunate that I was able to afford to do so because I had come into some money. Others are less fortunate.
2 ) Perhaps it could be argued that Labour should not have allowed the Tories to make it the main issue of the campaign by Danny Beales coming out against the extension as he did. However, it was probably the least worst option in the circumstances.
3 ) I don't think that the Labour Party was guilty of underestimating what a tough nut to crack this constituency is, but some pundits did no doubt including myself. Labour's revival has not been totally even in all parts of Britain; the biggest swing has been in ex-mining and -other industrial heavily white areas in the Midlands and the North, the lowest appears to be in constituencies with what might crudely and rather inaccurately be called an Essex Man-style electorate. In outer London, this includes two constituencies which have had by-elections in this parliament, the other being Old Bexley & Sidcup (though that seat is by and large a little more prosperous than this one, even if not by all that much). The uneven revival is shown very clearly in the differential between this seat and Selby & Ainsty, although the majority of that seat as it currently stands is rural and semi-rural rather than industrial.
4 ) Full marks to John Loony and others for pointing out the parallels with Grimsby & Ashfield (which of course was a mining seat at that time). Grimsby for many years could be said to be a constituency which showed unusual loyalty to the Labour Party, and U&SR is a good example of a Conservative counterpart. Of course, despite Labour's much better result in Grimsby than in Ashfield they went on to lose the next general election by a clear majority.
5 ) I agree that the increased number of BAME voters here has had little if any benefit for Labour.
6 ) Steve Tuckwell still faces a difficult battle to win the revised constituency in the general election for a number of reasons. Firstly, although local issues often do impact particular constituencies in general elections, it's much harder to make the result a referendum on an issue such as ULEZ extension. Secondly, although there will be a very slightly favourable boundary change for the Tories, this will be at least nullified by the likelihood of a much greater student vote. Thirdly, I think that in one of the parts joining the constituency, Ickenham, rather as in neighbouring Hillingdon West which is already part of the constituency, in common with other very prosperous areas there may be a slight anti-Tory trend which I don't think is the case in the areas around Ruislip Manor & Eastcote which are departing from the constituency in the boundary changes. Although Ickenham is still Tory for sure. There are precedents for parties holding on to seats in by-elections and then losing them in the following general elections; this happened to the Tories, for example, in Bolton East in 1960 and to Labour in Dundee East in 1973, and Darlington in 1983. However, as I said above, this seat is a tough nut to crack, and it will probably take something close to a Labour landslide to carry this seat along with it as a Labour gain.
7 ) This by-election is a good illustration that sheer hard work does not always win elections if other things are wrong. Labour flooded the constituency with party workers and it still was not enough.
8 ) This result looks increasingly to force a rethink/postponement of ULEZ extension, as asked for by Danny Beales, to whom many commiserations. Sadiq Khan may be ahead in the polls at the moment, but it is not beyond the Tories even with an apparently weak candidate to eat further into the Labour vote if the Mayor presses ahead with the extension without major modifications regardless. The Labour Party leadership will certainly put pressure on him to act.
9 ) I am wondering if this by-election has another possible historical parallel : Darlington in 1983. Labour's retention of this seat against expectations at the start of the campaign secured the previously shaky leadership of Michael Foot. This had disastrous consequences at the general election soon afterwards for Labour. I don't think that the Tories are silly enough to think that this shows that Rishi Sunak is more popular than was previously thought. Steve Tuckwell was very honest in his speech & interviews about the mostly localised, or at least sub-regionalised, impact of this result. It is a serious setback for Labour, but it's very recoverable.
10 ) I do think that there was a late swing against Labour on top of the already more modest than expected position at the start of the campaign.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 21, 2023 8:08:40 GMT
I doubt if the Mayor thought a by-election at all likely in this seat when he launched this policy... So no hubris really. But it gave a good opportunity for a local referendum and people took it. Fair enough. Elections (particularly by-elections, where the consequences are very modest) are for people to use as they please, exasperating though that might be for politicians. The hubris was more about treating this as a nailed on gain I was on the ground in the 1997 byelection and remember that hubris from Labour activists very well I was low on hubris then (but quietly confident, without broadcasting that confidence. I had to be pretty confident - I effectively surrendered a well-paid job just before the election and I’m not a natural gambler!). I wouldn’t have been hubristic about this by-election. It’s a bad way to address activists and even worse way to address voters. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2023 8:34:16 GMT
The hubris was more about treating this as a nailed on gain I was on the ground in the 1997 byelection and remember that hubris from Labour activists very well I was low on hubris then (but quietly confident, without broadcasting that confidence. I had to be pretty confident - I effectively surrendered a well-paid job just before the election and I’m not a natural gambler!). I wouldn’t have been hubristic about this by-election. It’s a bad way to address activists and even worse way to address voters. Not talking about the 97 election, but the Uxbridge by election. The hubris was much less on show during the election, everyone remembered 92. But at the by-election Labour viewed the Tories as slain. Interestingly they also put a very metropolitan candidate up against a local. |
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Post by spinach on Jul 21, 2023 8:37:54 GMT
3 ) I don't think that the Labour Party was guilty of underestimating what a tough nut to crack this constituency is, but some pundits did no doubt including myself. Labour's revival has not been totally even in all parts of Britain; the biggest swing has been in ex-mining and -other industrial heavily white areas in the Midlands and the North, the lowest appears to be in constituencies with what might crudely and rather inaccurately be called an Essex Man-style electorate. In outer London, this includes two constituencies which have had by-elections in this parliament, the other being Old Bexley & Sidcup (though that seat is by and large a little more prosperous than this one, even if not by all that much). The uneven revival is shown very clearly in the differential between this seat and Selby & Ainsty, although the majority of that seat as it currently stands is rural and semi-rural rather than industrial. I agree. As shown by this by-election, its likely that the Tory vote will hold up better in London seats such as this and that the Labour Party has a ceiling to its support in such areas. I expect a large swing to Labour in the Midlands and North, while the Tories narrowly hold on to seats such as Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Harrow East, Sutton and Cheam and Croydon South. I feel the MRP polling showing a near Tory wipeout in London is unlikely. |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 21, 2023 8:42:18 GMT
I was low on hubris then (but quietly confident, without broadcasting that confidence. I had to be pretty confident - I effectively surrendered a well-paid job just before the election and I’m not a natural gambler!). I wouldn’t have been hubristic about this by-election. It’s a bad way to address activists and even worse way to address voters. Not talking about the 97 election, but the Uxbridge by election. The hubris was much less on show during the election, everyone remembered 92. But at the by-election Labour viewed the Tories as slain. Interestingly they also put a very metropolitan candidate up against a local. Ah yes. I was out a couple of times for that one. The approach was indeed “you missed the chance in May, put that right now” and the forcing in of a very New Labour candidate (who wasn’t that inspiring anyway, in by-election terms) gave a complacent, patronising message that fitted that idea. |
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right
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Post by right on Jul 21, 2023 8:52:37 GMT
This was a well fought Tory local campaign with a long term issue that is near maximum pain at the moment in a seat where there has proved in 1997 and 2017 to be a resilient Tory vote - Labour can take a lot of comfort in that
However there is one question, did the Labour Party put a lot more resources in Selby than they should have while thinking Uxbridge was in the bag? Which area code were the national call centres dialling on election day?
And did Starmer, known to be flat footed on political tactics, insist on that approach?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 9:07:29 GMT
95% of the worries about ULEZ will dissipate once it has been in for a few weeks and the vast majority realise it does not directly affect them. The few weeks in the lead-up are the time of maximum worry/fear of the imminent unknown. Once again, we see that Boris is not as stupid (or as haphazard) as he looks. True, a lot of people may be under the misapprehension that they will have to pay to drive their car in outer London when they may actually have a compliant vehicle. That said, getting a tradesperson in a diesel van to pop into the London ULEZ boundary from the likes of North Kent or Essex to do a job will get more difficult and expensive. As spinach has said it doesn't need to directly affect you for you to be opposed to it. My car is compliant but in a hyperthetical referendum on the issue i would vote against, as I would vote against any anti-motorist measure - on principle and self-interesredly as they will come for me next |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Jul 21, 2023 9:13:14 GMT
This was a well fought Tory local campaign with a long term issue that is near maximum pain at the moment in a seat where there has proved in 1997 and 2017 to be a resilient Tory vote - Labour can take a lot of comfort in that However there is one question, did the Labour Party put a lot more resources in Selby than they should have while thinking Uxbridge was in the bag? Which area code were the national call centres dialling on election day? And did Starmer, known to be flat footed on political tactics, insist on that approach? There has been nervousness about ULEZ for quite a while now & the ‘in the bag’ narrative has come from our sloppy media more than from the Labour Party. That said, there has been an ‘Oh wow, we could actually win’ view of Selby for a couple of weeks which may have meant resources being diverted. Same consequence different driver. (Sorry 😁) Not convinced that resource shift would have depressed the Labour vote in Uxbridge. Looking at turnout figures in all 3 elections, we do focus on switchers, while underestimating the number of ‘stay-at-home’ Tory voters. ULEZ chivvied reluctant Tories to the polling station. the nervousness about ULEZ in Labour in part is driven by the absolute focus on the issue by the Tories. The Conservative stand at LGA conference, appealing to a national audience 🤔 was decorated all about ULEZ to the exclusion of any other slogans. Very geographically niche, but when you only have one piece of good news (if you see what I mean) understandable if you flog the horse to death. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 21, 2023 9:14:08 GMT
In Sheffield we've now got CAZ and just because it doesn't affect most people it doesn't stop people thinking it will affect them or that it will soon affect them
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 21, 2023 9:16:14 GMT
People weren't going to travel 300 miles to Uxbridge for a by election even if Selby wasn't competitive
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Post by batman on Jul 21, 2023 9:17:10 GMT
3 ) I don't think that the Labour Party was guilty of underestimating what a tough nut to crack this constituency is, but some pundits did no doubt including myself. Labour's revival has not been totally even in all parts of Britain; the biggest swing has been in ex-mining and -other industrial heavily white areas in the Midlands and the North, the lowest appears to be in constituencies with what might crudely and rather inaccurately be called an Essex Man-style electorate. In outer London, this includes two constituencies which have had by-elections in this parliament, the other being Old Bexley & Sidcup (though that seat is by and large a little more prosperous than this one, even if not by all that much). The uneven revival is shown very clearly in the differential between this seat and Selby & Ainsty, although the majority of that seat as it currently stands is rural and semi-rural rather than industrial. I agree. As shown by this by-election, its likely that the Tory vote will hold up better in London seats such as this and that the Labour Party has a ceiling to its support in such areas. I expect a large swing to Labour in the Midlands and North, while the Tories narrowly hold on to seats such as Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Harrow East, Sutton and Cheam and Croydon South. I feel the MRP polling showing a near Tory wipeout in London is unlikely. Croydon South is seeing some pro-Labour demographic change, not least in terms of a distinct increase in its Black population. However, most of its still majority White population is just about the last sort of electorate one could expect to go Labour. It's not for nothing that Croydon South, before it acquired Waddon, was Labour's weakest seat in London, by a long distance; even Richmond & Barnes had a bigger Labour vote. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 9:18:04 GMT
Another thought: the Tory candidate seemed rather stronger than labours. I presume he has links to the area, but a millennial Camden councillor doesn't feel right for a by election vs a local bloke on Hillingdon. People get moving across the country for work - but you live in Camden rather than Uxbridge not for that reason, but rather because you just don't want to live in the sort of area that Uxbridge is. I knew it! I knew I wasn't the only person who decides where they want to live on the basis of its political representation! Interesting philosophy!! So if your constituency changes hands at a GE, do you immediately put your house on the market?? 
Actually, thinking back in my lifetime I've lived (resided) largely in Labour-held constituencies, but have also had a Conservative, Lib Dem and Plaid Cymru MP!
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jul 21, 2023 9:18:10 GMT
In Sheffield we've now got CAZ and just because it doesn't affect most people it doesn't stop people thinking it will affect them or that it will soon affect them There is a CAZ in Bath which is about lorries, vans & coaches but doesn’t charge for cars. Doesn’t stop rumours that cars are going to be charged from next week (or whenever) which have absolutely no basis in fact or even being considered. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 9:38:24 GMT
Credit to the Tories for sticking doggedly with the biggest vote-winning policy they could muster in the circumstances. I fully expect another by-election in the seat or its successor when I'm in my late 80s, and the Tories to win unexpectedly yet again. A few observations from me as someone who worked on several days in the campaign. 1 ) ULEZ was obviously a major issue. At first it seemed as if it was just habitual Tory voters who brought it up, but increasingly this was not the case. Labour's concentrating on the cost of living crisis was much less effective when for a minority, but an important minority, of voters this policy potentially cost them even more financially. I personally had to change my car because of the previous extension of ULEZ, and was very fortunate that I was able to afford to do so because I had come into some money. Others are less fortunate. I did think ULEZ was a significant issue in the campaign, however my rationale for predicting a narrow Labour win, was in assuming voters wouldnt make their vote solely on that single issue, but would also look at the effect of Government policies in just about every other area of their lives, take that into account, and I honestly thought that those with the greatest concern about ULEZ would use the typical 'a plague on both your houses' tactic of refusing to vote Tory or Labour, but then still expressing their displeasure at the ULEZ policy by opting for one of the anti-ULEZ candidates in classic protest-vote style.
I think I would have used this tactic (as it isnt a GE) to deliver that message to both parties and was very surprised that more didnt do so. [Had the ULEZ candidates got 200+ more votes each, we really would have been into multiple recount territory!] |
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