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Post by greenchristian on Jul 21, 2023 2:11:21 GMT
But surely it's the total votes you got that matter rather than the increase in share, ie who would those voters have gone to if not Green. Not that the Greens or LDs can actually be blamed for Labour losing of course The total votes are more of a factor for the new candidates, whose votes have to have come from somebody. If we had stood down it's likely that a substantial chunk of our vote would have gone to somebody who was actually in favour of the ULEZ, leaving not enough to put Labour over the top.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 2:13:24 GMT
With the 2022 locals and students away I thought this would be closer than expected but didn't expect a conservative win. UKIP result hilarious. UKIP results tonight could / should be it’s death knell. But then the SDP is still carrying on so you never know!
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 2:16:11 GMT
With the 2022 locals and students away I thought this would be closer than expected but didn't expect a conservative win. UKIP result hilarious. UKIP did much better in Uxbridge this time than in 1997.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 21, 2023 2:30:09 GMT
Another thought: the Tory candidate seemed rather stronger than labours. I presume he has links to the area, but a millennial Camden councillor doesn't feel right for a by election vs a local bloke on Hillingdon.
People get moving across the country for work - but you live in Camden rather than Uxbridge not for that reason, but rather because you just don't want to live in the sort of area that Uxbridge is.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 2:34:36 GMT
Another thought: the Tory candidate seemed rather stronger than labours. I presume he has links to the area, but a millennial Camden councillor doesn't feel right for a by election vs a local bloke on Hillingdon. Danny Beales is from Hillingdon and grew up in the constituency He is every bit as local as the Tory (and did make it part of the campaign)
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 2:36:36 GMT
Another thought: the Tory candidate seemed rather stronger than labours. I presume he has links to the area, but a millennial Camden councillor doesn't feel right for a by election vs a local bloke on Hillingdon. Certainly the inner London base of the Labour candidate was a factor in the 1997 by-election but Danny Beales is from Uxbridge originally, so I’m not sure the same narrative applied this time around.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 2:40:35 GMT
Sadiq Khan will have few friends in the Labour leadership after this, the worst possible result for him.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 21, 2023 2:41:23 GMT
Another thought: the Tory candidate seemed rather stronger than labours. I presume he has links to the area, but a millennial Camden councillor doesn't feel right for a by election vs a local bloke on Hillingdon. Danny Beales is from Hillingdon and grew up in the constituency He is every bit as local as the Tory (and did make it part of the campaign) Yes but everyone knows you when you make a decision to live in a completely different feeling area only 15 miles away that it's because you don't like where you are from. Or at least that's the impression it gives off.
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Post by borisminor on Jul 21, 2023 2:42:45 GMT
Also I imagine it is quite easy just to constantly drop lines such as 'Camden Councillor' in every piece of literature.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 2:44:34 GMT
Danny Beales is from Hillingdon and grew up in the constituency He is every bit as local as the Tory (and did make it part of the campaign) Yes but everyone knows you when you make a decision to live in a completely different feeling area only 15 miles away that it's because you don't like where you are from. Or at least that's the impression it gives off. Not really, not unusual for a 20 something Londoner to move out of the family home in the suburbs and into inner London, most voters would recognise that as entirely normal from their own family experience.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 2:49:15 GMT
1997: OMRLP 396 UKIP 39 2023: OMRLP 32 UKIP 61
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 21, 2023 2:50:28 GMT
Another thought: the Tory candidate seemed rather stronger than labours. I presume he has links to the area, but a millennial Camden councillor doesn't feel right for a by election vs a local bloke on Hillingdon. People get moving across the country for work - but you live in Camden rather than Uxbridge not for that reason, but rather because you just don't want to live in the sort of area that Uxbridge is. I knew it! I knew I wasn't the only person who decides where they want to live on the basis of its political representation!
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 3:23:38 GMT
2021 Old Bexley & Sidcup swing: 10.2% 2023 Uxbridge & South Ruislip swing: 6.7%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 3:27:09 GMT
Aggregate vote in the three byelections
Con 36439 34.5% -21.9% on 2019 Lab 30931 29.3% +5.5% LD 22901 21.7% +7.0% Green 6675 6.3% +2.7% Ref/Rec 3349 3.2% +3.2% Oth 5221 4.9% + 3.5%
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 21, 2023 3:58:23 GMT
For a none Londoner that doesn’t own a car this is completely and utterly bizarre- even crazy.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 21, 2023 4:04:02 GMT
For a none Londoner that doesn’t own a car this is completely and utterly bizarre- even crazy. Parts of Hillingdon have quite a lot of light industry, so it's probably more likely the impact on commercial vehicles (especially ULEZ compliant vans, which are hard to find) rather than personal vehicles round here.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 4:05:29 GMT
There were 394 votes split away by the other anti-ULEZ candidates. If they hadn’t stood, and if (naive premise for a counterfactual) those voters had all voted Conservative instead, then there would have been a Conservative majority of 889 and there wouldn’t have been a recount. Or, if (by some even more weird hypothesis) they all voted Labour, there would have been a Conservative majority of 101 and there would have been 2 or 3 recounts instead of 1.
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 21, 2023 4:49:22 GMT
This is a bit like Ashfield/Great Grimsby in 1977. The government loses one with an huge swing and holds the other unexpectedly. (Yes, Somerton happened as well this time).
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 5:03:04 GMT
For a none Londoner that doesn’t own a car this is completely and utterly bizarre- even crazy. Parts of Hillingdon have quite a lot of light industry, so it's probably more likely the impact on commercial vehicles (especially ULEZ compliant vans, which are hard to find) rather than personal vehicles round here. There are probably enough white van men in this constituency for it to have made all the difference.
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 21, 2023 5:08:45 GMT
To what extent did the effective removal of Boris have an impact?
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