catfest
Non-Aligned
( e ^ i* pi ) + 1 = 0
Posts: 86
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Post by catfest on Jul 21, 2023 1:00:25 GMT
I thought I heard "recount" of Lab & Con + check of other cands bundles to look for stray Lab & Con votes. (On BBC1 TV).
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 21, 2023 1:01:05 GMT
Just had a call from a Labour cllr at the count and have been told that it is very close - could go either way. Who is ahead? |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 1:02:25 GMT
We've been talking about what the consequences will be for Sunak if the results go badly for him, but if Labour fail to win this on a modest swing requirement, what will this mean for Starmer?
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,624 
Member is Online
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Post by ricmk on Jul 21, 2023 1:03:19 GMT
This is not good for Labour, whatever happens from here. They haven't revealed who has called for the recount but you can bet that it's the party currently in second.
I wonder if Labour will have any regrets about the resource committed to Mid Beds that could have gone to Uxbridge? Hubris to tackle both at once. Let's see if they get away with it.
EDIT: "Sources" saying that *Labour* have called the recount.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 1:04:46 GMT
I'vejust read that it was Labour who asked for the recount  |
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Post by philvn on Jul 21, 2023 1:06:23 GMT
Tories about 400 votes ahead according to Sky News.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 21, 2023 1:06:44 GMT
So the other day, when I said that Labour were rubbish at by elections...
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Post by borisminor on Jul 21, 2023 1:07:00 GMT
I'vejust read that it was Labour who asked for the recount Can a 2% majority be overturned on a recount. Seems to need a pretty radical error to change direction. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 21, 2023 1:08:01 GMT
Bundle check or full recount? Full recount of Labour & Conservative votes, plus checking of bundles of all the others. That's not what was announced at the podium. He said that they were checking all the Labour and Conservative bundles. Though it's possible that you're right about what's actually going on. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 21, 2023 1:08:57 GMT
Bloody hell. This is going to be awkward for the narrative...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 1:11:03 GMT
Not going to count chickens but this would be the third Uxbridge by-election which Labour 'should' have won but fell short, Maybe it will be fourth time lucky for them in c. 2048/9
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 1:13:20 GMT
Just had a call from a Labour cllr at the count and have been told that it is very close - could go either way. Who is ahead? I have a theory that the OMRLP and UKIP will be closer than they were in the 1997 by-election. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 1:14:36 GMT
Not going to count chickens but this would be the third Uxbridge by-election which Labour 'should' have won but fell short, Maybe it will be fourth time lucky for them in c. 2048/9 Indeed. It is quite uncanny how history seems to repeat in this part of the world. I think Labour are destined never to win in U&SR |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,784
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 21, 2023 1:18:25 GMT
I'vejust read that it was Labour who asked for the recount Can a 2% majority be overturned on a recount. Seems to need a pretty radical error to change direction. Four bundles of 50 with a CON on the top with 49 LAB underneath. I've experienced one such bad bundle in 30 years, four would be beyond exceptional. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 1:19:00 GMT
We've been talking about what the consequences will be for Sunak if the results go badly for him, but if Labour fail to win this on a modest swing requirement, what will this mean for Starmer? Or… for Khan? His policies and popularity levels have been mentioned by some here as a factor. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 21, 2023 1:20:42 GMT
Not going to count chickens but this would be the third Uxbridge by-election which Labour 'should' have won but fell short, Maybe it will be fourth time lucky for them in c. 2048/9 Indeed. It is quite uncanny how history seems to repeat in this part of the world. I think Labour are destined never to win in U&SR I read U&SR as USSR for a moment! |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 1:28:01 GMT
I thought that ULEZ would be a significant issue for voters, but had thought that those voters would also factor in all the other non-ULEZ policies implemented by the Tories which negatively affected their lives and would have protest-voted for the 2 anti-ULEZ candidates in greater numbers than it seems likely that they've actually done..
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,345
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Post by graham on Jul 21, 2023 1:28:31 GMT
Can a 2% majority be overturned on a recount. Seems to need a pretty radical error to change direction. Four bundles of 50 with a CON on the top with 49 LAB underneath. I've experienced one such bad bundle in 30 years, four would be beyond exceptional. I was told a story by former Labour MP - later SDP - Bob Mitchell re- the 1964 count in Southampton Test. The initail count had Tories ahead by circa 1600 - but he as Labour candidate had concerns about how the count had proceeded and asked for a recount. Attempts were made to talk him out of it but he stood his ground and was granted a bundle recount. In the course of that recount someone suddenly shouted 'Stop!'. It emerged that several bundles of Labour votes had been assigned to the Tory pile - each bundle being a hundred votes. The final result was that the Tories held on by circa 350 votes. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 21, 2023 1:29:43 GMT
Indeed. It is quite uncanny how history seems to repeat in this part of the world. I think Labour are destined never to win in U&SR I read U&SR as USSR for a moment! The Uxbridge Soviet Socialist Republic 😂 |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,784
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 21, 2023 1:33:17 GMT
Indeed. It is quite uncanny how history seems to repeat in this part of the world. I think Labour are destined never to win in U&SR I read U&SR as USSR for a moment! Along with Armchair chatting to a chap from GCHQ!  |
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