ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 19, 2023 6:52:04 GMT
Post corrected. I should remember by now that Rayners Lane is in Harrow. Worth noting that Ruislip Manor station is in U&SR, and Eastcote station almost sits on the boundary, as does Ruislip station. Those are all served by the Metropolitan & Piccadilly Lines. Ruislip Gardens station and (naturally!) South Ruislip on the Central Line are in the seat as well. |
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2023 7:47:53 GMT
Indeed, Labour have used Ruislip Manor & Eastcote stations as a meeting point for campaigning, and also West Drayton Elizabeth Line station, which is right on the southern constituency boundary.
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2023 7:48:57 GMT
Post corrected. I should remember by now that Rayners Lane is in Harrow. there is indeed a longstanding Harrow Council ward called Rayners Lane which has seen a number of very close, sometimes 3-way, contests. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 19, 2023 8:09:54 GMT
Post corrected. I should remember by now that Rayners Lane is in Harrow. there is indeed a longstanding Harrow Council ward called Rayners Lane which has seen a number of very close, sometimes 3-way, contests. The high water mark for close contests was 2010, when each of the three main parties secured one seat; but I digress. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 19, 2023 10:16:48 GMT
There seems to be a general assumption in the media that the Conservative Party is going to lose all three seats, but what if not? What if it’s better than expected? I am expecting that the net swig from Conservative to Labour will be less in Uxbridge & South Ruislip than in Selby & Ainsty, and less than the swing from Conservatives to Lib Dem in Somerton & Frome. If it’s less bad than expected, then perhaps Conservative will hold Selby & Ainsty by a few thousand. Perhaps Somerton & Frome will be close rather than landslidey.
If the Conservative Party holds 1 out of 3, I expect it would be Selby & Ainsty
If the Conservative Party holds 2 out of 3, it’s fun to try and imagine which 2. I guess it would be holding Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty, and losing Somerton & Frome. Maybe Uxbridge & South Ruislip will be a suprise hold, like Grimsby in 1977.
None of the above is a prediction.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084 
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 19, 2023 10:23:37 GMT
There seems to be a general assumption in the media that the Conservative Party is going to lose all three seats, but what if not? What if it’s better than expected? I am expecting that the net swig from Conservative to Labour will be less in Uxbridge & South Ruislip than in Selby & Ainsty, and less than the swing from Conservatives to Lib Dem in Somerton & Frome. If it’s less bad than expected, then perhaps Conservative will hold Selby & Ainsty by a few thousand. Perhaps Somerton & Frome will be close rather than landslidey. If the Conservative Party holds 1 out of 3, I expect it would be Selby & Ainsty If the Conservative Party holds 2 out of 3, it’s fun to try and imagine which 2. I guess it would be holding Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty, and losing Somerton & Frome. Maybe Uxbridge & South Ruislip will be a suprise hold, like Grimsby in 1977. None of the above is a prediction. It would be psehologically interesting to have a win for each of the three parties. I doubt that'll be the result. I also doubt the swings will unveil the pattern for the next general election. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 10:32:29 GMT
There seems to be a general assumption in the media that the Conservative Party is going to lose all three seats, but what if not? What if it’s better than expected? I am expecting that the net swig from Conservative to Labour will be less in Uxbridge & South Ruislip than in Selby & Ainsty, and less than the swing from Conservatives to Lib Dem in Somerton & Frome. If it’s less bad than expected, then perhaps Conservative will hold Selby & Ainsty by a few thousand. Perhaps Somerton & Frome will be close rather than landslidey. If the Conservative Party holds 1 out of 3, I expect it would be Selby & Ainsty If the Conservative Party holds 2 out of 3, it’s fun to try and imagine which 2. I guess it would be holding Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty, and losing Somerton & Frome. Maybe Uxbridge & South Ruislip will be a suprise hold, like Grimsby in 1977. None of the above is a prediction. Reverse the 1977 Great Grimsby swing, and apply it to Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and the Tories win by <1%. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2023 10:44:21 GMT
And their still losing Selby on the same day would be almost an exact repeat of then  |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Jul 19, 2023 11:29:32 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 19, 2023 11:29:36 GMT
The South Ruislip part has its own London Underground station, and the seat also has Rayners Lane and Hillingdon underground stations within its boundaries. Not Rayners Lane! Mornington Crescent! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 4:46:14 GMT
There seems to be a general assumption in the media that the Conservative Party is going to lose all three seats, but what if not? What if it’s better than expected? I am expecting that the net swig from Conservative to Labour will be less in Uxbridge & South Ruislip than in Selby & Ainsty, and less than the swing from Conservatives to Lib Dem in Somerton & Frome. If it’s less bad than expected, then perhaps Conservative will hold Selby & Ainsty by a few thousand. Perhaps Somerton & Frome will be close rather than landslidey. If the Conservative Party holds 1 out of 3, I expect it would be Selby & Ainsty If the Conservative Party holds 2 out of 3, it’s fun to try and imagine which 2. I guess it would be holding Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty, and losing Somerton & Frome. Maybe Uxbridge & South Ruislip will be a suprise hold, like Grimsby in 1977. None of the above is a prediction. Reverse the 1977 Great Grimsby swing, and apply it to Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and the Tories win by <1%. I wouldn’t be shocked if we get this or a repeat of the 97 GE result. Listening to vox pops here last night, the mood isn’t as hostile to the Tories as you might expect. |
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Post by spinach on Jul 20, 2023 7:06:13 GMT
I have never visited this constituency but is the Ruislip part of this seat comparable to neighbourhoods such as Sidcup, Welling, Orpington, North Cheam, Worcester Park or West Ewell? The sort of Outer London neighbourhoods characterised by its 1930s suburbia and population with high home and car ownership, C1/C2 social class, high White British population and older than the London average.
The Tories have done well with such demographics in the last few elections and I can imagine the Labour Party support may have a ceiling in the Ruislip part of the constituency.
Is Uxbridge also comparable to the areas above or is similar to places such as Kingston town or Sutton?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 20, 2023 7:49:39 GMT
I have never visited this constituency but is the Ruislip part of this seat comparable to neighbourhoods such as Sidcup, Welling, Orpington, North Cheam, Worcester Park or West Ewell? The sort of Outer London neighbourhoods characterised by its 1930s suburbia and population with high home and car ownership, C1/C2 social class, high White British population and older than the London average. It's broadly similar in terms of housing stock, tenure and car ownership, but not in terms of population. The ethnic mix includes a much higher Asian proportion. |
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Post by batman on Jul 20, 2023 7:50:52 GMT
Uxbridge is socially mixed with a prosperous northern section and a more working class southern section. South Ruislip has a strong council estate element, the remaining Ruislip section of the seat is much more middle-class with a lot of the interwar suburbia you mention. Yiewsley in the south is mostly council estate & is quite strongly Labour, the bits in between are mixed. Hillingdon has a very upmarket western section although Labour are less weak than one might expect given the big houses, its eastern part is again very socially mixed. It is a fairly multiethnic constituency these days but still majority white.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2023 8:00:32 GMT
There's not a very large council estate element in South Ruislip - its mostly more modest owner occupied housing but is relatively working class. Very comparable to somewhere like Welling I should think. It is increasingly Asian now though but not to the extent of the Uxbridge part of the constituency. The (former) Cavendish and Manor wards are somewhat upmarket of South Ruislip itself, but distinctly downmarket of the parts of Ruislip and Eastcote which are not in this constituency.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 20, 2023 11:50:54 GMT
Reverse the 1977 Great Grimsby swing, and apply it to Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and the Tories win by <1%. I wouldn’t be shocked if we get this or a repeat of the 97 GE result. Listening to vox pops here last night, the mood isn’t as hostile to the Tories as you might expect. Now, this is a possible flaw in your reasoning. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 20, 2023 14:17:53 GMT
There seems to be a general assumption in the media that the Conservative Party is going to lose all three seats, but what if not? What if it’s better than expected? I am expecting that the net swig from Conservative to Labour will be less in Uxbridge & South Ruislip than in Selby & Ainsty, and less than the swing from Conservatives to Lib Dem in Somerton & Frome. If it’s less bad than expected, then perhaps Conservative will hold Selby & Ainsty by a few thousand. Perhaps Somerton & Frome will be close rather than landslidey. If the Conservative Party holds 1 out of 3, I expect it would be Selby & Ainsty If the Conservative Party holds 2 out of 3, it’s fun to try and imagine which 2. I guess it would be holding Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Selby & Ainsty, and losing Somerton & Frome. Maybe Uxbridge & South Ruislip will be a suprise hold, like Grimsby in 1977. None of the above is a prediction. Reverse the 1977 Great Grimsby swing, and apply it to Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and the Tories win by <1%. As has been noted before and elsewhere, there were two parliamentary by-elections on 28th April 1977, which resulted in: (a) Labour unexpectedly holding the relatively marginal seat of Grimsby, with a swing from Labour to Conservative of 7.1%; (b) Conservative unexpectedly gaining the safe Labour seat of Ashfield, with a swing of 20.2%. If one reverses the swings (from Conservative to Labour, instead of Labour to Conservative) and applies those net swings to today's by-elections: (c) Conservative Party holds Uxbridge & South Ruislip by a margin of 0.9%; (d) Labour gains Selby & Ainsty with a margin of 6.0%. |
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Post by spinach on Jul 20, 2023 16:50:21 GMT
I presume Ruislip was once similar to the areas listed above (say 10-20 years ago)? Reviewing the Census data, there has been a significant demographic change with a large rise in its Asian population. In 2001 the White British population was 72% and Asian population was 13.6% in the London Borough of Hillingdon. In 2021 the White British population was 37% and Asian population was 33.3%.
Although if the Asian population generally well off and Indian (similar to Harrow East), could the Tories benefit?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 17:32:29 GMT
I presume Ruislip was once similar to the areas listed above (say 10-20 years ago)? Reviewing the Census data, there has been a significant demographic change with a large rise in its Asian population. In 2001 the White British population was 72% and Asian population was 13.6% in the London Borough of Hillingdon. In 2021 the White British population was 37% and Asian population was 33.3%. Although if the Asian population generally well off and Indian (similar to Harrow East), could the Tories benefit? Yes, see Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner (31% Asian, IIRC.) |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 20, 2023 17:34:08 GMT
I suspect this is noise. Surely there can't be any way for a single MP to work out how a seat performs based on GOTV?
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