stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 18, 2023 7:45:18 GMT
It was only about three months after the Glasgow East by-election, Labour’s situation was only getting worse and Glenrothes was an area the SNP already had some strength in so there seemed to be a few assumptions where that was concerned I was working for Rob Flello at the time and he spent the last week of the campaign in the constituency, having also been to Glasgow East. The differences he highlighted in the report back I had to type were: organisational - in Glasgow the late MP and the MSP hadn’t spoken to each other for years and refused to campaign together, and on one afternoon he went doorstep canvassing only to discover that the route he’d been given was in the neighbouring constituency; a very much larger well of support for Gordon Brown in Glenrothes (local boy made good?); and much more popular candidate, who people seemed to genuinely like and was very effective on the doorstep unlike in Glasgow. There was also damage done by the candidate selection process in Glasgow East, Margaret Curran was asked to step in after about three or four preferred options turned it down which seemed farcical for such a safe seat at the time |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 18, 2023 8:02:04 GMT
Chesham & Amersham was perhaps more surprising because the by election was the result of an MPs death… Rather than a resignation caused by some drama/scandal or whatever. I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 18, 2023 8:10:16 GMT
Chesham & Amersham was perhaps more surprising because the by election was the result of an MPs death… Rather than a resignation caused by some drama/scandal or whatever. I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. OTTH Old Bexley and Sidcup, following James Brokenshire’s passing, was a very sleepy affair. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Jul 18, 2023 8:18:28 GMT
Chesham & Amersham was perhaps more surprising because the by election was the result of an MPs death… Rather than a resignation caused by some drama/scandal or whatever. I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. Eastbourne is a prime example especially considering it was an IRA murder |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,802
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Post by john07 on Jul 18, 2023 10:18:44 GMT
Chesham & Amersham was perhaps more surprising because the by election was the result of an MPs death… Rather than a resignation caused by some drama/scandal or whatever. I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. I recall the night when there were two by-elections in Labour held seats in 1977. Grimsby was considered highly marginal following the death of Tony Crosland, while Ashfield had a massive Labour majority before David Marquand jumped ship for Brussels. The obvious happened and Austin Mitchell held Grimsby for Labour while the Conservatives took Ashfield. The message that the analysts portrayed that Labour were punished for the resignation of their MP. It was also true that Austin Mitchell ran a very energetic campaign while Ashfield Labour were almost invisible. |
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stb12
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Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Jul 18, 2023 10:38:04 GMT
I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. I recall the night when there were two by-elections in Labour held seats in 1977. Grimsby was considered highly marginal following the death of Tony Crosland, while Ashfield had a massive Labour majority before David Marquand jumped ship for Brussels. The obvious happened and Austin Mitchell held Grimsby for Labour while the Conservatives took Ashfield. The message that the analysts portrayed that Labour were punished for the resignation of their MP. It was also true that Austin Mitchell ran a very energetic campaign while Ashfield Labour were almost invisible. Interestingly for the by-elections in that parliament I can see Labour won four Tory gains back at the next general election despite losing easily overall Three of them (Ashfield, Workington and Walsall North) were seats that the Tories only won again in 2017 and 2019 (not withstanding any boundaries differences in those times) |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jul 18, 2023 10:50:32 GMT
I recall the night when there were two by-elections in Labour held seats in 1977. Grimsby was considered highly marginal following the death of Tony Crosland, while Ashfield had a massive Labour majority before David Marquand jumped ship for Brussels. The obvious happened and Austin Mitchell held Grimsby for Labour while the Conservatives took Ashfield. The message that the analysts portrayed that Labour were punished for the resignation of their MP. It was also true that Austin Mitchell ran a very energetic campaign while Ashfield Labour were almost invisible. Interestingly for the by-elections in that parliament I can see Labour won four Tory gains back at the next general election despite losing easily overall Three of them (Ashfield, Workington and Walsall North) were seats that the Tories only won again in 2017 and 2019 (not withstanding any boundaries differences in those times) Sending Fred Peart to the Lords in 1976 was to eventually seal Callaghan's fate. It created an unnecessary by election at Workington which - had it not happened -would have enabled him to survive the March 79 Canfidence Vote! |
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msc
Non-Aligned
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Post by msc on Jul 18, 2023 11:32:32 GMT
I knew SNP folk working on the Glenrothes by-election and they were pretty much convinced of a gain for months. Lindsay Roy proved a remarkably smart pick for Labour though and I know local nationalists who rated him highly as a local MP before his health declined.
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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2023 11:58:25 GMT
I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. I recall the night when there were two by-elections in Labour held seats in 1977. Grimsby was considered highly marginal following the death of Tony Crosland, while Ashfield had a massive Labour majority before David Marquand jumped ship for Brussels. The obvious happened and Austin Mitchell held Grimsby for Labour while the Conservatives took Ashfield. The message that the analysts portrayed that Labour were punished for the resignation of their MP. It was also true that Austin Mitchell ran a very energetic campaign while Ashfield Labour were almost invisible. unlike most by-election candidates for major parties, Mitchell was already a minor celebrity, being a well-known broadcaster. I remember that being stated as a possible reason for the above-average Labour performance in that by-election, although I was 17 and not yet a Labour Party member. |
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David
Forum Regular
Conservative
Posts: 32
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Post by David on Jul 18, 2023 13:27:13 GMT
I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. Eastbourne is a prime example especially considering it was an IRA murder |
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David
Forum Regular
Conservative
Posts: 32
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Post by David on Jul 18, 2023 13:30:01 GMT
I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. Eastbourne is a prime example especially considering it was an IRA murder Am guessing this wouldn't happen now. The default position nowadays is for other major parties not to contest by elections caused by murder of an MP Viz Batley, Southend |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 18, 2023 17:50:12 GMT
Chesham & Amersham was perhaps more surprising because the by election was the result of an MPs death… Rather than a resignation caused by some drama/scandal or whatever. I don’t think that makes that much difference. There are plenty of examples of big swings against the incumbent party in by-elections caused by deaths. An example often cited to prove this theory is the West Derbyshire and Ryedale by-elections which were held on the same day in 1986. The MP for Ryedale had died of natural causes whereas Matthew Parris was resigning from being an MP in West Derbyshire to become a TV presenter (in this GB News era that wouldn't have been an issue but there was more focus on media impartiality in those days) which at the time was seen as a rather selfish reason to resign mid Parliament. Both seats were very similar levels of safety for the Conservative incumbents whereas Ryedale was lost and West Derbyshire very narrowly retained. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,802
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Post by john07 on Jul 18, 2023 20:56:10 GMT
I recall the night when there were two by-elections in Labour held seats in 1977. Grimsby was considered highly marginal following the death of Tony Crosland, while Ashfield had a massive Labour majority before David Marquand jumped ship for Brussels. The obvious happened and Austin Mitchell held Grimsby for Labour while the Conservatives took Ashfield. The message that the analysts portrayed that Labour were punished for the resignation of their MP. It was also true that Austin Mitchell ran a very energetic campaign while Ashfield Labour were almost invisible. unlike most by-election candidates for major parties, Mitchell was already a minor celebrity, being a well-known broadcaster. I remember that being stated as a possible reason for the above-average Labour performance in that by-election, although I was 17 and not yet a Labour Party member. Austin Mitchell had previously been an academic in New Zealand before becoming a presenter for Yorkshire TV. He conducted the notable debate between Brian Clough and Don Revie that was recreated in the film The Damned United. He certainly appeared on TV beyond Yorkshire so would have been a well-known face to many. During the campaign there was a backlash against North Lincolnshire’s incorporation into Humberside. According to Mitchell, the Tories were bringing in ladies from Harrogate to implore the locals not to vote for a ‘Yorkie’. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 18, 2023 21:28:13 GMT
Somebody should tell political journalists that this constituency extends beyond the 100 or so square foot outside Uxbridge underground station
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 18, 2023 22:33:14 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2023 4:45:41 GMT
Somebody should tell political journalists that this constituency extends beyond the 100 or so square foot outside Uxbridge underground station They only know of Uxbridge because of the Piccadilly Line |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 19, 2023 5:39:16 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Jul 19, 2023 6:35:13 GMT
Somebody should tell political journalists that this constituency extends beyond the 100 or so square foot outside Uxbridge underground station The South Ruislip part has its own London Underground station, and the seat also has Hillingdon underground station within its boundaries. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jul 19, 2023 6:38:31 GMT
Somebody should tell political journalists that this constituency extends beyond the 100 or so square foot outside Uxbridge underground station The South Ruislip part has its own London Underground station, and the seat also has Rayners Lane and Hillingdon underground stations within its boundaries. Not Rayners Lane! |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 19, 2023 6:40:39 GMT
The South Ruislip part has its own London Underground station, and the seat also has Rayners Lane and Hillingdon underground stations within its boundaries. Not Rayners Lane! Post corrected. I should remember by now that Rayners Lane is in Harrow. |
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