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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 3, 2023 15:49:02 GMT
Yes, of course there were police station closures while Boris was Mayor. However that is not relevant to the specific point about Uxbridge Police Station, which unless the GLA were lying in their FOI response, was not proposed for closure until 2017. It is if they already had in their long term budget the fact that station closures were expected to continue. Even if it may not have identified the specific station, if there was no way of making up the requisite funding gap without closing stations - and this particular one was the one with most development potential in the local area, then it didn't really matter that that it wasn't formally named at the time. It had already become an "of course" decision. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 3, 2023 20:21:04 GMT
Ha, you might almost think there was an election on  Heaven forbid labour do something popular to win an election |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 5:12:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 8:00:08 GMT
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Post by AdminSTB on Jul 5, 2023 8:06:57 GMT
Needs go be the original poster I think. In the past I'd have been able to add a poll but that function seems to have disappeared. |
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2023 13:37:40 GMT
The bookies clearly think it's over as a contest. There is absolutely no point in betting on a Labour victory. The atmosphere in the Labour camp seems to be basically one of contentment with the way things are going, but no complacency. The number of party workers continues to be high.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 7, 2023 8:07:26 GMT
JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jul 7, 2023 8:18:12 GMT
JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet. If that's accurate it's good for Labour but nowhere near a done deal. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 8:34:31 GMT
JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet. That's a bit underwhelming for the red team, isn't it? That's not that much of an improvement compared to 2019. That said, I do think Danny Beales' different stances on ULEZ will harm him whereas Tuckwell and Hillingdon Council have had a consistent position against it, I believe. The Telegraph interviewed him yesterday and he does seem a bit stumped: |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 7, 2023 8:36:43 GMT
Some of the supplementary questions would worry me if I was a Lab supporter. 'Cares about Uxbridge' is tied 23/23 and 'Best for local issues' C lead 25/21. Also best for opposition to ULEZ is 33/14 to C.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 7, 2023 8:57:15 GMT
That's a bit underwhelming for the red team, isn't it? It is a low-swinging constituency (as were the various Uxbridge seats that preceded it) and isn't that heavy on the demographics that are seeing large movements towards Labour at the moment. Though the record of constituency polling is what it is. |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jul 7, 2023 9:02:18 GMT
Labour win in Selby, Tories win in Uxbridge - GE this side of Xmas |
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Post by matureleft on Jul 7, 2023 9:11:47 GMT
JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet. That's a bit underwhelming for the red team, isn't it? That's not that much of an improvement compared to 2019. That said, I do think Danny Beales' different stances on ULEZ will harm him whereas Tuckwell and Hillingdon Council have had a consistent position against it, I believe. The Telegraph interviewed him yesterday and he does seem a bit stumped: He’s in an awkward spot and the Telegraph is hardly going to be fair about this. This is a London Mayoral policy not a Labour national position, and Labour local opinion varies. He’s free to form his own opinion while expressing it in a respectful way, having regard for the views of others. I’d imagine that, with the assistance by-election candidates get, he’s navigating this as carefully as he can, but he’ll not satisfy ultras on either side. And this and similar restrictions or tariffs on car use generate staggering degrees of social media traffic and seem attractive to conspiracy theorists. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 9:15:03 GMT
That's a bit underwhelming for the red team, isn't it? That's not that much of an improvement compared to 2019. That said, I do think Danny Beales' different stances on ULEZ will harm him whereas Tuckwell and Hillingdon Council have had a consistent position against it, I believe. The Telegraph interviewed him yesterday and he does seem a bit stumped: He’s in an awkward spot and the Telegraph is hardly going to be fair about this. This is a London Mayoral policy not a Labour national position, and Labour local opinion varies. He’s free to form his own opinion while expressing it in a respectful way, having regard for the views of others. I’d imagine that, with the assistance by-election candidates get, he’s navigating this as carefully as he can, but he’ll not satisfy ultras on either side. And this and similar restrictions or tariffs on car use generate staggering degrees of social media traffic and seem attractive to conspiracy theorists. This could end being a referendum on Khan instead of Sunak, which is a bit mad considering how long the Tories have been in power nationally. |
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2023 9:20:25 GMT
Some of the supplementary questions would worry me if I was a Lab supporter. 'Cares about Uxbridge' is tied 23/23 and 'Best for local issues' C lead 25/21. Also best for opposition to ULEZ is 33/14 to C. Yes, but the Tories were always going have a big lead on ULEZ weren't they? If they fail in making this into solely into referendum on that issue, that will be highly gratifying. And as with the Selby poll, this does leave an implausibly high percentage not supporting the big 2. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 7, 2023 9:23:11 GMT
Full figures from the poll:
Beales (Lab) 41%
Tuckwell (Con) 33%
Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6%
Fox (Reclaim) 5%
Green (Green) 4%
Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4%
Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1%
Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2023 9:28:42 GMT
Both here and in Selby, you suspect a lot of the minor candidates will poll less well on the day.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 9:31:16 GMT
Full figures from the poll: Beales (Lab) 41% Tuckwell (Con) 33% Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6% Fox (Reclaim) 5% Green (Green) 4% Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4% Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1% Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0% Duverger’s Law says hi. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 7, 2023 9:34:11 GMT
Postcode breakdown:
UB8 (Uxbridge) Lab 43 Con 29
HA4 (South Ruislip) Lab 45 Con 41
UB10 (Hillingdon) Lab 38 Con 31
UB7 (Yiewsley) Lab 34 Con 27
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Post by borisminor on Jul 7, 2023 9:38:40 GMT
Some of the supplementary questions would worry me if I was a Lab supporter. 'Cares about Uxbridge' is tied 23/23 and 'Best for local issues' C lead 25/21. Also best for opposition to ULEZ is 33/14 to C. Yes, but the Tories were always going have a big lead on ULEZ weren't they? If they fail in making this into solely into referendum on that issue, that will be highly gratifying. And as with the Selby poll, this does leave an implausibly high percentage not supporting the big 2. Yes ULEZ should be factored in. I think the Lab position on it is confusing though 'I oppose the mayor of my own city and my party but it is a decision for the mayor'. I would be more concerned (with obvious sample caveats) about the local care results which are more pro-Conservative than the equivalent question in Selby. I suspect that there will be a lot of squeeze (I do not find 5% for Reclaim credible) and the LD figure seems high as well. |
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