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Post by matureleft on Jul 7, 2023 9:40:31 GMT
He’s in an awkward spot and the Telegraph is hardly going to be fair about this. This is a London Mayoral policy not a Labour national position, and Labour local opinion varies. He’s free to form his own opinion while expressing it in a respectful way, having regard for the views of others. I’d imagine that, with the assistance by-election candidates get, he’s navigating this as carefully as he can, but he’ll not satisfy ultras on either side. And this and similar restrictions or tariffs on car use generate staggering degrees of social media traffic and seem attractive to conspiracy theorists. This could end being a referendum on Khan instead of Sunak, which is a bit mad considering how long the Tories have been in power nationally. You are handed the seat to fight with the local landscape that's there. It isn't ideal having to fight a by-election with a not-yet-implemented policy in the background on which there are certainly some losers (real or perceived). The result is unlikely to have any effect on whether the zone is extended as proposed, but it's a tool some of the electorate will wish to use. That's life. Khan retreating on this would be the worst possible response, pissing off an important part of the electorate and handing a success to the Tory. As you suggest every effort is likely to be made to get voters focused on national concerns, the Tory record, Johnson and other local issues. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 9:40:57 GMT
Postcode breakdown: UB8 (Uxbridge) Lab 43 Con 29 HA4 (South Ruislip) Lab 45 Con 41 UB10 (Hillingdon) Lab 38 Con 31 UB7 (Yiewsley) Lab 34 Con 27 2022 local elections (using highest vote method) Uxbridge CON 51 LAB 46 South Ruislip CON 60 LAB 30 Hillingdon CON 59 LAB 37 Yiewsley LAB 60 CON 38 |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2023 9:46:42 GMT
Yes, but the Tories were always going have a big lead on ULEZ weren't they? If they fail in making this into solely into referendum on that issue, that will be highly gratifying. And as with the Selby poll, this does leave an implausibly high percentage not supporting the big 2. Yes ULEZ should be factored in. I think the Lab position on it is confusing though 'I oppose the mayor of my own city and my party but it is a decision for the mayor'. I would be more concerned (with obvious sample caveats) about the local care results which are more pro-Conservative than the equivalent question in Selby. I suspect that there will be a lot of squeeze (I do not find 5% for Reclaim credible) and the LD figure seems high as well. Though they do have a high profile candidate who might well appeal to a certain "niche". |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 7, 2023 10:17:36 GMT
Full figures from the poll: Beales (Lab) 41% Tuckwell (Con) 33% Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6% Fox (Reclaim) 5% Green (Green) 4% Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4% Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1% Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0% I am pretty sure that Labour will win by more than 10% despite the ULEZ issue, and I do not believe that Reclaim and the Independent Anti-Ulez candidate (Kingsley Hamilton, not Leo Phaure) will poll anywhere near 5% or even 4%. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jul 7, 2023 10:37:56 GMT
That 4% for the Anti-ULEZ independent candidate, are probably 4% of people that the Tories desperately need onside to hold this. Can they get them?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2023 11:12:59 GMT
That they are even going for the Indy rather than the "obvious" anti-ULEZ choice (Tory) suggests a lot might rather have their hand drop off than vote Conservative.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 7, 2023 11:27:34 GMT
That they are even choosing the Indy rather than the "obvious" anti-ULEZ choice (Tory) suggests a lot might rather have their hand drop off than vote Conservative. I agree. Labour will probably get a very solid vote share, Tories will get their core, 100% guaranteed vote out and the rest will be fractured/square root of fuck all. Tories only won it by 7k in a near landslide GE win - I imagine this by-election will be somewhat chastening... |
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Post by batman on Jul 7, 2023 11:28:17 GMT
Postcode breakdown: UB8 (Uxbridge) Lab 43 Con 29 HA4 (South Ruislip) Lab 45 Con 41 UB10 (Hillingdon) Lab 38 Con 31 UB7 (Yiewsley) Lab 34 Con 27 2022 local elections (using highest vote method) Uxbridge CON 51 LAB 46 South Ruislip CON 60 LAB 30 Hillingdon CON 59 LAB 37 Yiewsley LAB 60 CON 38 ..........which suggests to me that the postcode breakdown of this poll should be taken with a whole truckload of salt. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 7, 2023 11:29:22 GMT
Also, if Fox gets 6%, Tories will have lost big.
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Post by londonw5er on Jul 7, 2023 14:23:51 GMT
If Labour win this by the 8% suggested in that poll I think they will be very happy. This was always going to be a difficult seat for them to win because it has a large Tory core vote that is remaining loyal. They will have a much better swing in their favour in Selby and Ainsty and if they win that it will be a considerable achievement. The important thing here is to not let the Tories pull off a "surprise" victory that will allow them to change the narrative. Their relentless campaigning on ULEZ and little else does seem to have spooked Labour, whose response has been confused and suggests an element of panic but will it be fatal? The 40% who say it is one of the main issues for them will include most of the 33% who are voting Tory plus the Fox and anti-ULEZ candidate voters so there are probably few other voters for them to gain. One oddity in the poll was that 36.5% claimed that they had a vehicle that would be affected by ULEZ. There is just no way that there will be that many people with cars that will have to pay the ULEZ charge (either ancient petrol ones or rather less elderly diesels) so either the poll has a highly unrepresentative sample or misinformation on who will have to pay the ULEZ charge is widely believed.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 7, 2023 14:53:11 GMT
If Labour win this by the 8% suggested in that poll I think they will be very happy. This was always going to be a difficult seat for them to win because it has a large Tory core vote that is remaining loyal. They will have a much better swing in their favour in Selby and Ainsty and if they win that it will be a considerable achievement. The important thing here is to not let the Tories pull off a "surprise" victory that will allow them to change the narrative. Their relentless campaigning on ULEZ and little else does seem to have spooked Labour, whose response has been confused and suggests an element of panic but will it be fatal? The 40% who say it is one of the main issues for them will include most of the 33% who are voting Tory plus the Fox and anti-ULEZ candidate voters so there are probably few other voters for them to gain. One oddity in the poll was that 36.5% claimed that they had a vehicle that would be affected by ULEZ. There is just no way that there will be that many people with cars that will have to pay the ULEZ charge (either ancient petrol ones or rather less elderly diesels) so either the poll has a highly unrepresentative sample or misinformation on who will have to pay the ULEZ charge is widely believed. This. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 14, 2023 11:07:34 GMT
Lots of anecdotal reports of Labour nerves re the impact of ULEZ.
Might just be expectation management or typical Labour nerves, but is notable.
I also wonder if the biggest impact of ULEZ is keeping some voters at home?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 14, 2023 15:53:55 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 14, 2023 16:07:47 GMT
The Crown & Treaty was always one of the more decent pubs in Uxbridge (admittedly not a very competitive field). |
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Post by gibbon on Jul 14, 2023 16:17:54 GMT
More sense from Binface than the slogan on the Leave Bus. More likely the promise to be honoured as well.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 16, 2023 11:52:28 GMT
2022 local elections (using highest vote method) Uxbridge CON 51 LAB 46 South Ruislip CON 60 LAB 30 Hillingdon CON 59 LAB 37 Yiewsley LAB 60 CON 38 ..........which suggests to me that the postcode breakdown of this poll should be taken with a whole truckload of salt. Yes, Labour losing support in Yiewsley by that much seems unlikely even if the by-election has provided a much wider slate of candidates than the locals. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 16, 2023 12:08:06 GMT
The absence of students from Brunel may be causing Labour some worries too. These were a major factor in the surge to Labour which occurred here in 2017, with their candidate then making a big push to register especially foreign students (those qualified to vote due to archaic laws relating to Commonwealth citizenship). There were over 10,000 students recorded here at the last census.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2023 12:09:47 GMT
The absence of students from Brunel may be causing Labour some worries too. These were a major factor in the surge to Labour which occurred here in 2017, with their candidate then making a big push to register especially foreign students (those qualified to vote due to archaic laws relating to Commonwealth citizenship). There were over 10,000 students recorded here at the last census. Good timing for the Tories all round, since the by-election is after university term ends and before the ULEZ expands. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 16, 2023 13:12:53 GMT
The absence of students from Brunel may be causing Labour some worries too. These were a major factor in the surge to Labour which occurred here in 2017, with their candidate then making a big push to register especially foreign students (those qualified to vote due to archaic laws relating to Commonwealth citizenship). There were over 10,000 students recorded here at the last census. Gosh, that’s quite a big percentage. Which wards are they concentrated in? Just wondering if differential turnout was evident in the 2022 locals. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 16, 2023 13:29:11 GMT
The absence of students from Brunel may be causing Labour some worries too. These were a major factor in the surge to Labour which occurred here in 2017, with their candidate then making a big push to register especially foreign students (those qualified to vote due to archaic laws relating to Commonwealth citizenship). There were over 10,000 students recorded here at the last census. Gosh, that’s quite a big percentage. Which wards are they concentrated in? Just wondering if differential turnout was evident in the 2022 locals. Uxbridge and Colham & Cowley mostly - previously the old Brunel and Uxbridge South wards |
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