graham
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2023 9:35:30 GMT
Labour's failure to win this seat in 1997 was largely self-inflicted (and there are claims to that effect about 1972 also, though it was before even my time) At the very least, this will be a key test of how much ULEZ is some magic bullet for Tory election prospects. (my suspicion is, not as much as some of them think - but we will see) The seat did not exist in 1997. We then had Uxbridge which Labour last won in 1966 - though until 1959 it had been a Labour-leaning marginal. Failure to win again post-1966 suggests the seat was shifting demographically to the Tories. The addition of South Ruislip has made it less favourable for Labour. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 2, 2023 10:12:28 GMT
Labour's failure to win this seat in 1997 was largely self-inflicted (and there are claims to that effect about 1972 also, though it was before even my time) At the very least, this will be a key test of how much ULEZ is some magic bullet for Tory election prospects. (my suspicion is, not as much as some of them think - but we will see) I also believe it’s said the Tories made a smart selection with John Randall in 97 as he was a popular local businessman? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 2, 2023 10:39:53 GMT
Labour's failure to win this seat in 1997 was largely self-inflicted (and there are claims to that effect about 1972 also, though it was before even my time) At the very least, this will be a key test of how much ULEZ is some magic bullet for Tory election prospects. (my suspicion is, not as much as some of them think - but we will see) The seat did not exist in 1997. We then had Uxbridge which Labour last won in 1966 - though until 1959 it had been a Labour-leaning marginal. Failure to win again post-1966 suggests the seat was shifting demographically to the Tories. The addition of South Ruislip has made it less favourable for Labour.That's not true. South Ruislip ward itself would have voted Labour in 1997 and the other two wards would have been far from overwhelmingly Tory then. Against that Harefield was Labour leaning then (but has swung massively away from them subsequently) and Ickenham is massively Tory. Additionally West Drayton was moved out of the seat and this is now a stronger Labour area than any which remains. My own notionals suggest a narrow Labour lead in Uxbridge & South Ruislip in 1997, which against a narrow Conservative lead in the existing Uxbridge seat means the changes were basically net neutral, but if anything favourable to Labour. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2023 10:53:24 GMT
Labour's failure to win this seat in 1997 was largely self-inflicted (and there are claims to that effect about 1972 also, though it was before even my time) At the very least, this will be a key test of how much ULEZ is some magic bullet for Tory election prospects. (my suspicion is, not as much as some of them think - but we will see) I also believe it’s said the Tories made a smart selection with John Randall in 97 as he was a popular local businessman? Uxbridge Conservative Association generally picks decent, inoffensive candidates, with the obvious exception of 2015. |
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Post by president1 on Jul 2, 2023 11:57:49 GMT
Labour's failure to win this seat in 1997 was largely self-inflicted (and there are claims to that effect about 1972 also, though it was before even my time) At the very least, this will be a key test of how much ULEZ is some magic bullet for Tory election prospects. (my suspicion is, not as much as some of them think - but we will see) I also believe it’s said the Tories made a smart selection with John Randall in 97 as he was a popular local businessman? He was a well known businessman and owned a large dept store in Uxbridge called Randalls. Despite my different political leanings, he came across as quite a pleasant chap when ever I saw him.
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Post by president1 on Jul 2, 2023 12:09:22 GMT
Labour's failure to win Uxbridge in 1997 was largely self-inflicted (and there are claims to that effect about 1972 also, though it was before even my time) At the very least, this will be a key test of how much ULEZ is some magic bullet for Tory election prospects. (my suspicion is, not as much as some of them think - but we will see) It was very much self inflicted. The local Labour candidate (David Williams) who came very close in the general election, was not allowed to run again by the national party when Michael Shersby died. They brought in an outsider for the by election (much to the anger of local party members) many who stayed away from supporting the party during the campaign. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 2, 2023 13:21:42 GMT
The seat did not exist in 1997. We then had Uxbridge which Labour last won in 1966 - though until 1959 it had been a Labour-leaning marginal. Failure to win again post-1966 suggests the seat was shifting demographically to the Tories. The addition of South Ruislip has made it less favourable for Labour.That's not true. South Ruislip ward itself would have voted Labour in 1997 and the other two wards would have been far from overwhelmingly Tory then. Against that Harefield was Labour leaning then (but has swung massively away from them subsequently) and Ickenham is massively Tory. Additionally West Drayton was moved out of the seat and this is now a stronger Labour area than any which remains. My own notionals suggest a narrow Labour lead in Uxbridge & South Ruislip in 1997, which against a narrow Conservative lead in the existing Uxbridge seat means the changes were basically net neutral, but if anything favourable to Labour. Thanks for the correction. I had rather lazily assumed that a ward transferred from the former Ruislip Northwood seat would be safely Tory - though in reality such things are not always so simple. Any idea as to what caused Harefield to move so sharply away from Labour. Its vote there is now often fairly derisory - and I see there is a history of the ward having quite a substantial BNP/NF vote. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 2, 2023 15:28:23 GMT
The same number of candidates as Chesterfield 1984. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 2, 2023 17:09:02 GMT
The same number of candidates as Chesterfield 1984. But no sofa salesmen this time. Or Elvis impersonators. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 2, 2023 17:14:19 GMT
The same number of candidates as Chesterfield 1984. But no sofa salesmen this time. Or Elvis impersonators. For good or worse? For others to decide, I imagine. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 2, 2023 17:42:55 GMT
But no sofa salesmen this time. Or Elvis impersonators. For good or worse? For others to decide, I imagine. "Buy Your Chesterfield In Thame" is pretty memorable as a "party" name, you have to admit, |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 3, 2023 8:50:17 GMT
Sadiq Khan reprieves Uxbridge Police Station from the long list of police station closures started by Boris Johnson
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 3, 2023 8:56:36 GMT
Ha, you might almost think there was an election on  |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 3, 2023 11:21:29 GMT
Sadiq Khan reprieves Uxbridge Police Station from the long list of police station closures started by Boris Johnson I wonder why |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 3, 2023 11:30:54 GMT
Sadiq Khan reprieves Uxbridge Police Station from the long list of police station closures started by Boris Johnson I wonder why To join up with the bridge across the Humber. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 3, 2023 11:36:58 GMT
Sadiq Khan reprieves Uxbridge Police Station from the long list of police station closures started by Boris Johnson |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 3, 2023 13:34:03 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 3, 2023 13:46:10 GMT
So you agree that closure wasn't proposed until 2017 when Khan was mayor, not Boris? If Khan thinks it is that vital that Uxbridge Police Station remains open, I wonder why he did nothing about it for the last five years, and waited until there happened to be a by-election there?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 3, 2023 13:49:39 GMT
So you agree that closure wasn't proposed until 2017 when Khan was mayor, not Boris? If Khan thinks it is that vital that Uxbridge Police Station remains open, I wonder why he did nothing about it for the last five years, and waited until there happened to be a by-election there? Do you deny that there were extensive police station closures from 2012 onwards and that the whole closure programme was committed to by the Mayor at the time? |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 3, 2023 14:12:42 GMT
Yes, of course there were police station closures while Boris was Mayor. However that is not relevant to the specific point about Uxbridge Police Station, which unless the GLA were lying in their FOI response, was not proposed for closure until 2017.
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