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Post by robert1 on Oct 14, 2023 4:28:31 GMT
Both Betfair and SMarkets now have the Tories as favourites. Maybe a poll is imminent - or rumours of how Postal Votes are looking. Can someone please explain to a betting ignorant like myself why the total percentages do not add up to virtually 100%? SMarkets currently totals roughly 107% |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2023 5:50:51 GMT
Just because people are putting money on the outcome, doesn't mean they know what they are doing - bookies wouldn't make any money if they did. Plenty of mug punters out there, I wouldn't mindlessly follow them. Question to ask is whether there's an observable reason why people might be backing the Tories now - perhaps it's the clarity that neither Lab nor LD are clearly favoured opposition / will back down, so the winning post is lower. Perhaps it's the storming Tory performance on the 3CR hustings this morning. Perhaps. Indeed. People put way too much stock in betting markets, like PredictIt in the US. That said, we don't have our own poll here. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Oct 14, 2023 5:50:58 GMT
Both Betfair and SMarkets now have the Tories as favourites. Maybe a poll is imminent - or rumours of how Postal Votes are looking. Can someone please explain to a betting ignorant like myself why the total percentages do not add up to virtually 100%? SMarkets currently totals roughly 107% Because bookies need to make money. |
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Post by robert1 on Oct 14, 2023 6:00:21 GMT
Thank you.
That I understand and expected would be part of the explanantion. It is the variation in percentage above 100 that confuses me. |
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
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Post by Roger Harmer on Oct 14, 2023 7:17:53 GMT
Thank you. That I understand and expected would be part of the explanantion. It is the variation in percentage above 100 that confuses me. Think of it this way. If the chances added up to 100% the bookies (on average) wouldn't make any money. So they shorten the odds a little to create a margin. This means the implied chances of everyone winning increases somewhat - to in this case add up to 107%. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 14, 2023 15:40:38 GMT
And also remember that the house always wins.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2023 17:19:26 GMT
Nadine Dorries stands down with immediate effect . Would you kindly add a poll? |
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Post by batman on Oct 14, 2023 17:32:39 GMT
there is a prediction competition. Why the overwhelming need for a poll as well?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2023 17:36:35 GMT
there is a prediction competition. Why the overwhelming need for a poll as well? Sorry for repeating myself, but it's easier to visualise if you know what I mean. Each to their own. I've also entered that. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 14, 2023 19:10:02 GMT
The following article in the Guardian I think sums up the reason why Rishi Sunak doesn't really mind a Mid Bedfordshire election, the opposition don't know who to back.
"The fierce byelection battle in Mid Bedfordshire is poisoning relations between Labour and the Lib Dems and risks denting informal cooperation to remove the Tory government, senior Labour figures have warned.
An incredibly close three-way battle has emerged in the seat formerly held by Boris Johnson ally Nadine Dorries, who quit after being refused a place on the former prime minister’s peerages list. Labour and the Lib Dems are both convinced they have the better chance of overturning the colossal 24,664-vote majority and pulling off one of the biggest byelection wins in history this week.
While no formal agreement has been made between the parties, officials in Labour and the Lib Dems have effectively diverted resources away from byelections in which the rival party is better placed to unseat the Tories. It has contributed to Labour wins in Selby and Ainsty, as well as Lib Dem victories in Amersham and Chesham, and Somerton and Frome. Party figures supportive of tactical voting hoped it could be a sign that both leaderships could adopt similar tactics at the general election next year"
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Member is Online
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Post by ricmk on Oct 14, 2023 19:14:26 GMT
Was driving through Flitwick this morning and saw a couple of people by the side of Aldi holding posters. Stopped to check and they were out for the Loony party.
Have we all missed the dark horse coming through the middle?
(Yes Flitwick has a Aldi. It’s new. Some of the locals to do not approve.)
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,729
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 14, 2023 22:25:14 GMT
Was driving through Flitwick this morning and saw a couple of people by the side of Aldi holding posters. Stopped to check and they were out for the Loony party. Have we all missed the dark horse coming through the middle? (Yes Flitwick has a Aldi. It’s new. Some of the locals to do not approve.) They mightn't approve, but they'll still shop there. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Oct 14, 2023 23:43:51 GMT
Was driving through Flitwick this morning and saw a couple of people by the side of Aldi holding posters. Stopped to check and they were out for the Loony party. Have we all missed the dark horse coming through the middle? (Yes Flitwick has a Aldi. It’s new. Some of the locals to do not approve.) They mightn't approve, but they'll still shop there. Why would people disapprove of having an Aldi in their town? |
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Oct 14, 2023 23:47:17 GMT
They mightn't approve, but they'll still shop there. Why would people disapprove of having an Aldi in their town? Because they believe it lowers the tone. And all the extra traffic it brings. From all the people driving there... |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 15, 2023 0:28:05 GMT
They mightn't approve, but they'll still shop there. Why would people disapprove of having an Aldi in their town? There's a very British (English maybe more realistically) attitude against anything being built near a house they own if that thing is considered lesser in style, or value, or class. Snobbery against Aldi/Lidl is part of the very provincial way British people think about their lives. |
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spqr
Non-Aligned
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Post by spqr on Oct 15, 2023 0:35:38 GMT
Why would people disapprove of having an Aldi in their town? There's a very British (English maybe more realistically) attitude against anything being built near a house they own if that thing is considered lesser in style, or value, or class. Snobbery against Aldi/Lidl is part of the very provincial way British people think about their lives. Not like those sophisticated Europeans I'll bet, eh? "What do they know of England who only England know?" |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2023 2:26:38 GMT
Was driving through Flitwick this morning and saw a couple of people by the side of Aldi holding posters. Stopped to check and they were out for the Loony party. Have we all missed the dark horse coming through the middle? (Yes Flitwick has a Aldi. It’s new. Some of the locals to do not approve.) I think Labour will win Aldi shoppers (Flitwick) and the Liberal Democrats will win Waitrose shoppers (Ampthill) and the Tories will win the other areas. Also, Lidl > Aldi. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 15, 2023 10:33:13 GMT
There are more than a few people who shop in both Waitrose and Aldi.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,729
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 15, 2023 10:48:07 GMT
There are more than a few people who shop in both Waitrose and Aldi. Lordy, having been in Waitrose, buying a loaf there would be enough to make me shop in Aldi as I couldn't afford anything else. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 15, 2023 10:57:29 GMT
There are more than a few people who shop in both Waitrose and Aldi. Lordy, having been in Waitrose, buying a loaf there would be enough to make me shop in Aldi as I couldn't afford anything else. half a loaf is better than none  |
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