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Post by eastmidlandsright on Oct 11, 2023 18:54:10 GMT
The Lib Dems sent an email out yesterday saying they had over 300 volunteers at the weekend, 11,000 doors knocked and 48,000 leaflets delivered. Out of the offences committed by Nadine Dorries none come close to the utter despicableness of subjecting her former constituents to such an ordeal as a mass influx of Lib Dem activists. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Oct 11, 2023 21:54:52 GMT
On that topic, is the Lib Dem campaign pro or anti house-building? Both. It occurs to me that Keir Starmer's recent pledge to impose housebuilding targets on local areas might work against Labour here. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 11, 2023 21:55:26 GMT
The Lib Dems sent an email out yesterday saying they had over 300 volunteers at the weekend, 11,000 doors knocked and 48,000 leaflets delivered. Which in and of itself equates to approx zero votes |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2023 0:13:53 GMT
The Lib Dems sent an email out yesterday saying they had over 300 volunteers at the weekend, 11,000 doors knocked and 48,000 leaflets delivered. It is of course possible to knock on a phenomenal number of doors in a very short space of time. Because knocking, waiting, and putting an out card through takes less than a minute..... |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 12, 2023 6:43:46 GMT
The Lib Dems sent an email out yesterday saying they had over 300 volunteers at the weekend, 11,000 doors knocked and 48,000 leaflets delivered. It is of course possible to knock on a phenomenal number of doors in a very short space of time. Because knocking, waiting, and putting an out card through takes less than a minute..... If two thirds (200) of the volunteers only delivered leaflets, that's 240 each, or two shortish delivery routes. Perfectly doable in a weekend If the other third (100) canvassed, that's 110 doors each. Maybe two canvass sessions each. Plenty of time to knock, wait, and indeed chat. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2023 6:45:14 GMT
I guess we MAY not get a poll on this thread AdminSTB? 😂 |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Oct 12, 2023 9:26:38 GMT
I guess we MAY not get a poll on this thread AdminSTB ? 😂 I think it's only the thread starter who can create a poll on an existing thread (may be wrong) so elinorhelyn come in please! |
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Post by cappuccinokid on Oct 12, 2023 9:33:34 GMT
It is of course possible to knock on a phenomenal number of doors in a very short space of time. Because knocking, waiting, and putting an out card through takes less than a minute..... If two thirds (200) of the volunteers only delivered leaflets, that's 240 each, or two shortish delivery routes. Perfectly doable in a weekend If the other third (100) canvassed, that's 110 doors each. Maybe two canvass sessions each. Plenty of time to knock, wait, and indeed chat. The email said they spoke to 5,353 people. That figure is higher than the in rate would be for door knocking so probably some phoning in there. The feedback from activists I know is that the Tory vote is collapsing and is going LD. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 12, 2023 10:05:05 GMT
If two thirds (200) of the volunteers only delivered leaflets, that's 240 each, or two shortish delivery routes. Perfectly doable in a weekend If the other third (100) canvassed, that's 110 doors each. Maybe two canvass sessions each. Plenty of time to knock, wait, and indeed chat. The email said they spoke to 5,353 people. That figure is higher than the in rate would be for door knocking so probably some phoning in there. The feedback from activists I know is that the Tory vote is collapsing and is going LD. Hmm. I'd expect around 50% of doors to be answered, so that sounds reasonable for the number of doors knocked. Phone canvssing might well be on top of that. I can't speak to the veracity of the rest of your comment! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 12, 2023 11:11:25 GMT
I think any discussions about a collapsing Tory vote pose the question of which collapse. Huge numbers of 2019 Tory voters will no longer be voting Tory, because the national picture is radically different. It's obviously a different thing if people IDed as Tories 2 weeks ago are now voting LD than if people IDed as Tories 4 years ago are.
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Post by batman on Oct 12, 2023 11:41:01 GMT
For me in my area, it would be deeply ironic if the Lib Dems are targetting mostly Tory voters. In my area, they make far less of an effort to target Tory voters than they do in squeezing the Labour one, even though the latter has in most forms of election been squeezed almost dry now. Maybe they've finally grasped that they need to spend more time convincing Tories now, and they certainly had some success in this in recent elections.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 12, 2023 12:27:37 GMT
I suppose with just a week to go, it was predictable that the LibDems fabled Dead Russian Gambit would make an appearance  |
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 12, 2023 17:13:32 GMT
For me in my area, it would be deeply ironic if the Lib Dems are targetting mostly Tory voters. In my area, they make far less of an effort to target Tory voters than they do in squeezing the Labour one, even though the latter has in most forms of election been squeezed almost dry now. Maybe they've finally grasped that they need to spend more time convincing Tories now, and they certainly had some success in this in recent elections. They target Tory voters a lot here, and have been doing since the Coalition years. I think what you see in Richmond is not so much a tendency to prefer to target Labour voters than Tories, but a tendency to focus on the squeeze aspect of campaigning. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 13, 2023 20:17:07 GMT
Both Betfair and SMarkets now have the Tories as favourites. Maybe a poll is imminent - or rumours of how Postal Votes are looking.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 13, 2023 20:49:25 GMT
Both Betfair and SMarkets now have the Tories as favourites. Maybe a poll is imminent - or rumours of how Postal Votes are looking. Surely, it is to do with how bets are laid, rather than anything else. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 13, 2023 20:59:17 GMT
Both Betfair and SMarkets now have the Tories as favourites. Maybe a poll is imminent - or rumours of how Postal Votes are looking. Surely, it is to do with how bets are laid, rather than anything else. I am sure that is so - but that in itself reflects a change in sentment. Why are bets now being laid differently compared with a week ago?. The Tories have actually been shortening - and Labour drifting - for several days. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 13, 2023 21:04:18 GMT
Surely, it is to do with how bets are laid, rather than anything else. I am sure that is so - but that in itself reflects a change in sentment. Why are bets now being laid differently compared with a week ago?. The Tories have actually been shortening - and Labour drifting - for several days. Possibly because those laying wagers are trying to improve the odds. Also, a few people not that engaged in politics will look at the last election result and think: "Surely Labour can't win this". Also, politics has been overshadowed by conferences and world events, and that effects conservative betters too. It is a tough seat for Labour, no doubt. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 13, 2023 21:34:03 GMT
Both Betfair and SMarkets now have the Tories as favourites. Maybe a poll is imminent - or rumours of how Postal Votes are looking. Surely, it is to do with how bets are laid, rather than anything else. I bow to your knowledge and experience |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 13, 2023 22:01:43 GMT
For me in my area, it would be deeply ironic if the Lib Dems are targetting mostly Tory voters. In my area, they make far less of an effort to target Tory voters than they do in squeezing the Labour one, even though the latter has in most forms of election been squeezed almost dry now. Maybe they've finally grasped that they need to spend more time convincing Tories now, and they certainly had some success in this in recent elections. Well, you're in an unusual situation, i.e. you are in London where, generally speaking there is an anti-Tory majority in most constituencies, albeit a slim one in most of the Lib Dem-Tory battlegrounds like yours, and the game is obviously to establish yourself as the main challenger and everyone else as a vote-splitter. Chasing Tory votes risks alienating the anti-Tory majority. In places like Mid-Beds, no non-Tory can win without winning at least some Tory switchers. Our increasing use of the argument that we are better placed than Labour to do that in certain places is a sign that we think the Tories are weak enough to be taken on in seats where there isn't a clear anti-Tory majority in normal years. The other factor compared to 2015-19 is that winning Tories was bloody hard due to fear among soft Tories that voting for us would let Corbyn in. It's taken time, but Starmer's establishment of a clear popularity lead over whoever he's facing this year is as much of a game-changer for us as it is for you. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Oct 13, 2023 22:05:42 GMT
Just because people are putting money on the outcome, doesn't mean they know what they are doing - bookies wouldn't make any money if they did.
Plenty of mug punters out there, I wouldn't mindlessly follow them. Question to ask is whether there's an observable reason why people might be backing the Tories now - perhaps it's the clarity that neither Lab nor LD are clearly favoured opposition / will back down, so the winning post is lower. Perhaps it's the storming Tory performance on the 3CR hustings this morning. Perhaps.
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