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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 26, 2023 11:38:41 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. If you’re asking about absolute numbers rather than percentages, recent examples include Cardiff South & Penarth 2012 9,193 Leeds Central 1999 6,361 Glasgow Central 1980 4,902 Birmingham Ladywood 1969 5,104 Camberwell North 1944 2,655 South Poplar 1941 3,375 Southwark Central 1940 5,285 Newcastle-Upon-Tyne Central 1976 4,692 I think WWII is pushing the definition of "recent".
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Post by greenhert on Sept 26, 2023 11:40:52 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. If you’re asking about absolute numbers rather than percentages, recent examples include Cardiff South & Penarth 2012 9,193 Leeds Central 1999 6,361 Glasgow Central 1980 4,902 Birmingham Ladywood 1969 5,104 Camberwell North 1944 2,655 South Poplar 1941 3,375 Southwark Central 1940 5,285 The 3 wartime by-elections you have mentioned should be discounted for practical statistical purposes.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 26, 2023 12:05:08 GMT
Brian Clough used to call most people ‘young man’ in interviews. Or at least his personification, Robin Hood: soccers’ Mr Dangerous lunatic, in Lenin of the Rovers, did so. Also our final chance to hear Ballard Berkeley in one of his old military buffer roles - he died during the making of the series and was replaced by Donald Hewlett.
It says “not available”
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 26, 2023 12:24:24 GMT
Also our final chance to hear Ballard Berkeley in one of his old military buffer roles - he died during the making of the series and was replaced by Donald Hewlett.
It says “not available” As a temporary substitute (ho, ho) here's Patrick Stewart as Lenin.
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Post by phil156 on Oct 2, 2023 7:27:45 GMT
This one is counting on the night too
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 5, 2023 13:49:24 GMT
Not sure how much notice should be taken of Betting Odds. Betfair now has Labour at 2.18 - the Tories at 2.9 - with the LDs on 4.8. No clear favourite yet with 2 weeks to Polling Day.
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 5, 2023 21:19:54 GMT
Not sure how much notice should be taken of Betting Odds. Betfair now has Labour at 2.18 - the Tories at 2.9 - with the LDs on 4.8. No clear favourite yet with 2 weeks to Polling Day. Labour seem a pretty clear favourite - in fractional odds they're basically 6/5 with the Tories 15/8 and the Lib Dems approaching 4/1.
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 6, 2023 1:39:04 GMT
Results in by-elections influence results in proximate by-elections.
Results in Scottish by-elections influence results in English by-elections less so
landslide results in by-elections influence results in by-elections more so
landslide results in Scottish by-elections influence results in English by-elections to an extent that is as yet hard to determine.
But it is such fun to kick a man when he is down. When he is deservedly down
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 9:31:02 GMT
Results in by-elections influence results in proximate by-elections. Results in Scottish by-elections influence results in English by-elections less so landslide results in by-elections influence results in by-elections more so landslide results in Scottish by-elections influence results in English by-elections to an extent that is as yet hard to determine. But it is such fun to kick a man when he is down. When he is deservedly down The vote share the SNP got in Rutherglen might be enough for whoever wins this. Mid Beds is a clusterfuck of a contest.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 6, 2023 10:46:06 GMT
Can we have an interim poll as to when the SOPN will appear on the website? Would you have guessed that it would be up by 16:09? Link13 candidates Festus Akinbusoye (Con) Sid Cordle (CPA) Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (no description) Dave Holland (Reform UK) Emma Louise Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) Ann Kelly (OMRLP) Gareth Mackey (Independent) Chris Rooney (Mainstream) Cade Sibley (Green) Alistair Luke Strathern (Lab) Alberto George Thomas (Heritage) Alan Victor (True and Fair) Antonio Daniel Vitiello (Eng Dem) Same number as 1996 South East Staffordshire 2009 Glasgow North East 2014 Rochester and Strood 2023 Selby and Ainsty
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2023 13:38:52 GMT
Not sure how much notice should be taken of Betting Odds. Betfair now has Labour at 2.18 - the Tories at 2.9 - with the LDs on 4.8. No clear favourite yet with 2 weeks to Polling Day. The Lib Dems have gone very quiet in Mid Beds social media commentary.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 6, 2023 16:22:41 GMT
Not sure how much notice should be taken of Betting Odds. Betfair now has Labour at 2.18 - the Tories at 2.9 - with the LDs on 4.8. No clear favourite yet with 2 weeks to Polling Day. The Lib Dems have gone very quiet in Mid Beds social media commentary. On the PoliticalBetting site there have been comments from LDs this week to the effect that the changes in the Betting Markets do not coincide with what is happening on the ground where they claim Tory voters are now readily switching to them on a scale not seen a few weeks ago.However, it raises the question as to whether that would be sufficient - given that the LDs are now unlikely to be able to effectively squeeze the Labour vote. Also probably circa 20,000 Postal Votes have now been sent out - with many having been returned.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 6, 2023 16:30:24 GMT
I have just seen this on the PB site mentioned earlier. 'An extract from the today's LD email to get supporters to Mid Beds:
"Ed Davey was knocking on doors in Barton-le-Clay this week, and he told me just how soft the Tory vote felt. Right across Mid Beds, thousands of former Tory voters, who will never back Labour, are ours for the taking - if we can get onto their doorstep in the coming days.
The data is clearer than ever – we can win in Mid Beds. But with the vote as soft as it is, we need hundreds more of you in the constituency this weekend.
Thank you to everyone who has been to help so far – but we need a big increase in volunteer numbers on Saturday and Sunday to make sure Emma is in pole position to win on the 19th."
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 6, 2023 19:18:14 GMT
Whatever the final result is, I think it will be fascinating, and give us a lot to pick over in the days after.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2023 19:22:22 GMT
Whatever the final result is, I think it will be fascinating, and give us a lot to pick over in the days after. I know, brilliant eh?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2023 19:31:06 GMT
I have not really been convinced that Labour will win this, but I am now beginning to think it is very possible. The Lib Dem conference didn't really touch the zeitgeist of this byelection, the Lib Dems are relatively quiet online after their weeks of "Labour can't win it" memes, and the Labour candidate seems like the perfect candidate, with the attacks on him appearing to have rebounded. The message from Ed Davey encouraging more activists to come to convert Tory voters suggests that they have given up on Labour voters switching to them. The Conservatives seem quite downbeat in their campaign, appearing to take a "don't scare the horses" approach and hope for the best. I think this campaign will be studied for a long time to come.
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Post by matureleft on Oct 6, 2023 20:00:40 GMT
I have not really been convinced that Labour will win this, but I am now beginning to think it is very possible. The Lib Dem conference didn't really touch the zeitgeist of this byelection, the Lib Dems are relatively quiet online after their weeks of "Labour can't win it" memes, and the Labour candidate seems like the perfect candidate, with the attacks on him appearing to have rebounded. The message from Ed Davey encouraging more activists to come to convert Tory voters suggests that they have given up on Labour voters switching to them. The Conservatives seem quite downbeat in their campaign, appearing to take a "don't scare the horses" approach and hope for the best. I think this campaign will be studied for a long time to come. This has been an incredibly long “campaign”. Dorries announced her intentions on 9 June, but her resignation (based on a peerage) had been trailed before that. Both main opposition parties should by now have been on the ground in a substantial way for at least 3 months. This Lib Dem plea seems a bit desperate - you’d expect that they’d already have a pretty high contact rate and the task now would be to harden your support, sort out the logistics of the last 10 days, and keep interest and confidence high.
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 6, 2023 20:15:27 GMT
I have just seen this on the PB site mentioned earlier. 'An extract from the today's LD email to get supporters to Mid Beds: "Ed Davey was knocking on doors in Barton-le-Clay this week, and he told me just how soft the Tory vote felt. Right across Mid Beds, thousands of former Tory voters, who will never back Labour, are ours for the taking - if we can get onto their doorstep in the coming days. The data is clearer than ever – we can win in Mid Beds. But with the vote as soft as it is, we need hundreds more of you in the constituency this weekend. Thank you to everyone who has been to help so far – but we need a big increase in volunteer numbers on Saturday and Sunday to make sure Emma is in pole position to win on the 19th." Ah the old Lib Dems have a higher ceiling than Labour line - which has almost no basis in fact - particularly given how centrist Starmer's labour are these days.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2023 20:54:17 GMT
I have just seen this on the PB site mentioned earlier. 'An extract from the today's LD email to get supporters to Mid Beds: "Ed Davey was knocking on doors in Barton-le-Clay this week, and he told me just how soft the Tory vote felt. Right across Mid Beds, thousands of former Tory voters, who will never back Labour, are ours for the taking - if we can get onto their doorstep in the coming days. The data is clearer than ever – we can win in Mid Beds. But with the vote as soft as it is, we need hundreds more of you in the constituency this weekend. Thank you to everyone who has been to help so far – but we need a big increase in volunteer numbers on Saturday and Sunday to make sure Emma is in pole position to win on the 19th." Ah the old Lib Dems have a higher ceiling than Labour line - which has almost no basis in fact - particularly given how centrist Starmer's labour are these days. Also, who cares how high the ceiling is, as long as it is above my head? The assumption that a Labour voter should vote Lib Dem to give then a massive majority over the Tories, when Labour can win with a reasonable majority, has always seemed bizarre to me.
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 6, 2023 21:07:30 GMT
Ah the old Lib Dems have a higher ceiling than Labour line - which has almost no basis in fact - particularly given how centrist Starmer's labour are these days. Also, who cares how high the ceiling is, as long as it is above my head? The assumption that a Labour voter should vote Lib Dem to give then a massive majority over the Tories, when Labour can win with a reasonable majority, has always seemed bizarre to me. Indeed - there are statistically almost no constituencies where a party polling 40+ percent will have a lower ceiling than a party polling 10%+. The Lib Dems got lucky in North Shropshire due to their mobility and opportunism and Labour's sloth (and that Labour weren't quite so dominant in polling then) - but they'd struggle to win North Shropshire now. That is provided Labour put a campaign in.
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