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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 25, 2023 15:18:31 GMT
I’m not aware of many Lib Dems who thought this was a high probability win in July, and views seem to be pretty similar now as they were then. Surely you don't mean they were lying in their leaflets when they say Labour voters are switching to them en masse and only the Lib Dems can win here?
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 25, 2023 15:34:20 GMT
I’m not aware of many Lib Dems who thought this was a high probability win in July, and views seem to be pretty similar now as they were then. Surely you don't mean they were lying in their leaflets when they say Labour voters are switching to them en masse and only the Lib Dems can win here? No, I don’t mean that. Any Tory pontificating about non-Tory politicians lying is on extremely shaky ground after the last eight years…
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2023 15:43:56 GMT
you mean that they always told the truth before 2015?
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 25, 2023 15:45:32 GMT
you mean that they always told the truth before 2015? Fair comment - consider a correction issued!
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 25, 2023 15:58:11 GMT
not sure about the low turnout. It will be relative to a general election, but I'm pretty sure it will be high by by-election standards. Turnout might exceed 50% - but is unlikely to match the 80%plus levels seen at Brecon & Radnor in July 1985 or at Darlington in March 1983.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 25, 2023 17:24:52 GMT
not sure about the low turnout. It will be relative to a general election, but I'm pretty sure it will be high by by-election standards. Turnout might exceed 50% - but is unlikely to match the 80%plus levels seen at Brecon & Radnor in July 1985 or at Darlington in March 1983. Perhaps it will be the first UK parliamentary by-election since the Winchester by-election of 1997 whose turnout exceeds 60%.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 26, 2023 7:57:49 GMT
Turnout might exceed 50% - but is unlikely to match the 80%plus levels seen at Brecon & Radnor in July 1985 or at Darlington in March 1983. Perhaps it will be the first UK parliamentary by-election since the Winchester by-election of 1997 whose turnout exceeds 60%. Doubtful. It's turnout in general elections isn't that much higher than average and the reason to believe it might be competitive is that a number of people who backed the locally predominant party last time are pissed off, which often manifests in a refusal to vote.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2023 8:49:23 GMT
I think in Winchester in 1997 there was a desire to give the Tories a good hiding. I'm not sure it's as visceral here.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 26, 2023 9:41:51 GMT
Not far short, in my opinion. Plus Winchester was a significantly less safe Conservative seat, before 1997 that is, than Mid Beds has been. It is extraordinary that Labour won Winchester in 1945 though - in those days its boundaries were very different & the seat included Eastleigh.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2023 10:07:33 GMT
In the days when said town was a massive Labour stronghold - Tories only just won the new Eastleigh seat in its original 1955 election.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,573
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Post by ricmk on Sept 26, 2023 10:08:22 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round.
What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 26, 2023 10:15:09 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. Unfortunately that is a question enormously qualified by the size of the franchise at the time, and er, circumstances.
If i may be so bold, your parameters need refining young man.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 26, 2023 10:20:15 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. Wikipedia has the lowest winning percentages ranging from 30% (Henry Strauss Conservative 1946 Combined English Universities by-election) to 34.9 (Parmjit Singh Gill Liberal Democrats 2004 Leicester South by-election)
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 26, 2023 10:21:56 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. Wikipedia has the lowest winning percentages ranging from 30% (Henry Strauss Conservative 1946 Combined English Universities by-election) to 34.9 (Parmjit Singh Gill Liberal Democrats 2004 Leicester South by-election) Aaaaar, but the boy he didn't ask for your percentages did 'ee? Eee asked for those votes he did.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Sept 26, 2023 10:23:26 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. Unfortunately that is a question enormously qualified by the size of the franchise at the time, and er, circumstances.
If i may be so bold, your parameters need refining young man. Liked, simply as it's so rare to be called "young man" any more
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 26, 2023 10:31:41 GMT
Unfortunately that is a question enormously qualified by the size of the franchise at the time, and er, circumstances.
If i may be so bold, your parameters need refining young man. Liked, simply as it's so rare to be called "young man" any more Ah, that might be why i did it.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 26, 2023 10:37:32 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. Wikipedia has the lowest winning percentages ranging from 30% (Henry Strauss Conservative 1946 Combined English Universities by-election) to 34.9 (Parmjit Singh Gill Liberal Democrats 2004 Leicester South by-election) 30.9% in a standard constituency, the 2019 Peterborough by-election. Remember that the Combined English Universities seat only had graduates of those universities as its electorate and therefore had a very limited franchise, so it does not really count.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Sept 26, 2023 10:54:30 GMT
Unfortunately that is a question enormously qualified by the size of the franchise at the time, and er, circumstances.
If i may be so bold, your parameters need refining young man. Liked, simply as it's so rare to be called "young man" any more Brian Clough used to call most people ‘young man’ in interviews. Or at least his personification, Robin Hood: soccers’ Mr Dangerous lunatic, in Lenin of the Rovers, did so.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 26, 2023 11:16:01 GMT
I think it will be low turnout based on what I've seen. I've been surprised how few posters I've seen while out and about. Nadine Dorries behaviour will just put a lot of people off, rather than motivate to vote. A big "Nadine isn't working" sign outside Flitwick Tescos at the weekend, guessing it's been there a while. And both Labour and Lib Dems are putting out "[the other] can't win" messages which may end up depressing turnout all round. What's the lowest number of winning votes in a contested parliamentary by-election? Given that this is going all the way to the line as a three-way contest, there must be a chance this sets some sort of record - however it's such a large constituency it might be low in percentage terms rather than absolute. If you’re asking about absolute numbers rather than percentages, recent examples include Cardiff South & Penarth 2012 9,193 Leeds Central 1999 6,361 Glasgow Central 1980 4,902 Birmingham Ladywood 1969 5,104 Camberwell North 1944 2,655 South Poplar 1941 3,375 Southwark Central 1940 5,285
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,642
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 26, 2023 11:20:38 GMT
Liked, simply as it's so rare to be called "young man" any more Brian Clough used to call most people ‘young man’ in interviews. Or at least his personification, Robin Hood: soccers’ Mr Dangerous lunatic, in Lenin of the Rovers, did so.
Also our final chance to hear Ballard Berkeley in one of his old military buffer roles - he died during the making of the series and was replaced by Donald Hewlett.
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