johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 22, 2023 16:54:02 GMT
I’m surprised that there are “only” 13 candidates. This is such a high profile by-election, with the campaign and publicity having gone on (de facto) for so long already, that I wouldn’t have been surprised if it had been a magnet for even more weirdos, fruitcakes and walter mittys. I was half-expecting a record number of candidates (19 or 20 or more (not counting the 26 in Haltemprice & Howden in 2008 (because that was a sui-generis situation))).
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Post by greenhert on Sept 22, 2023 18:41:09 GMT
And there he polled 86 votes, well behind even TUSC.
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Post by hatter88 on Sept 24, 2023 13:01:45 GMT
Drove around Ampthill area yesterday.....seemed a lot more lib dem posters than 2 weeks ago....Labour seemed in 2nd place on boards now
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 24, 2023 13:06:46 GMT
Ampthill was always one of the stronger Lib Dem areas here
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2023 15:27:49 GMT
Ampthill was always one of the stronger Lib Dem areas here Pretty well-heeled, and it reminds me of Buckingham really.
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Post by robert1 on Sept 24, 2023 17:28:17 GMT
Drove around Ampthill area yesterday.....seemed a lot more lib dem posters than 2 weeks ago....Labour seemed in 2nd place on boards now Just had lunch in Ampthill with relatives after having been in other parts of seat. Not sure I can agree re posters. You must have been in streets I didn't visit
Lab in lead across the parts I reached.
My family knew something (positive) about Lab candidate. Nothing about LD.
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 24, 2023 21:46:18 GMT
For once, the OMRLP candidate actually has a decent electoral track record - Ann Kelly has been mayor of Flitwick a couple of times. She has also played quiz league in the past, but I don't know if she still does.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2023 5:32:58 GMT
My dad's friend lives in Houghton Regis and says Labour are quite bullish.
I told him about this forum's thoughts and insights into the contest.
He also thinks the rock said Tory rural areas will keep this blue.
I agree. The Tories falling from 59% to sub 30% won't happen.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 25, 2023 6:28:59 GMT
My dad's friend lives in Houghton Regis and says Labour are quite bullish. I told him about this forum's thoughts and insights into the contest. He also thinks the rock said Tory rural areas will keep this blue. I agree. The Tories falling from 59% to sub 30% won't happen. That is dependent on the hardcore Tory voters being motivated enough to turnout in this byelection. The Tories don't have to fall to sub-30% to lose.
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Post by robert1 on Sept 25, 2023 7:07:55 GMT
I am no expert on betting markets and am happy to be corrected (politely or otherwise) but if I have read it correctly the betting on the 3 major parties on SMarkets have moved:-
24.08 24.09
Con 18.87 32.26 Lab 20.83 38.17 LD 68.49 31.25
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2023 9:29:43 GMT
My dad's friend lives in Houghton Regis and says Labour are quite bullish. I told him about this forum's thoughts and insights into the contest. He also thinks the rock said Tory rural areas will keep this blue. I agree. The Tories falling from 59% to sub 30% won't happen. That is dependent on the hardcore Tory voters being motivated enough to turnout in this byelection. The Tories don't have to fall to sub-30% to lose. And given the backdrop, could this finally be the byelection where Reform have a significant impact?
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Post by edgbaston on Sept 25, 2023 9:45:48 GMT
With a month still to go this is truly the by election that never ends, but critically so much could change in that month. If the poll was held tomorrow I think the Tories could well win on a split vote, but Labour still has a long time (and the resources) to speak to every ‘tactical’ Lib Dem in the district and convince them that they can win.
Maybe I have just had a busy summer but I feel like I’ve lived several lives since June 9th.
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2023 9:56:55 GMT
Yes a lot can change & this is why I am never early to enter the prediction competition for most parliamentary by-elections. As things stand I think Labour can win, but it will surely not be remotely easy. If Labour do pull this off it would appear to me to be the party's best postwar parliamentary by-election. I will be surprised if the Tories manage to hold Tamworth given that it's totally clear who the main opposition is there, and Labour does have a previous history of winning the seat too which of course they do not here.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 25, 2023 12:01:32 GMT
That is dependent on the hardcore Tory voters being motivated enough to turnout in this byelection. The Tories don't have to fall to sub-30% to lose. And given the backdrop, could this finally be the byelection where Reform have a significant impact? If "significant impact" is defined as the ratio between the Reform vote and the margin between the top two candidates, it's only a matter of time before the result is close enough to make a difference. By-election / Reform vote (%) / Margin between the top two (%) / Ratio / barchartX Hartlepool.................... / 368 (1.2%) / 6940 (23.2%) / 0.053 X Chesham & Amersham / 414 (1.1%) / 8028 (21.2%) / 0.052 X Old Bexley & Sidcup... / 1432 (6.6%) / 4478 (20.6%) / 0.320 XXXXXX Shropshire North........ / 1427 (3.8%) / 5925 (15.6%) / 0.241 XXXX Birmingham Erdington. / 293 (1.7%) / 3266 (19.2%) / 0.089 X Tiverton & Honiton...... / 481 (1.1%) / 6144 (14.4%) / 0.078 X Wakefield...................... / 513 (1.9%) / 4925 (17.9%) / 0.104 XX City of Chester............... / 773 (2.7%) / 8973 (38.6%) / 0.086 X Stretford & Urmston...... / 650 (3.5%) / 9906 (53.7%)/ 0.066 X Lancashire West............ / 997 (4.4%) / 8326 (36.9%) / 0.120 XX Somerton & Frome... / 1303 (3.4%) / 11008 (28.4%) / 0.118 XX Selby & Ainsty............ / 1332 (3.7%) / 4191 (11.7%) / 0.318 XXXXXX
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 25, 2023 12:07:05 GMT
With a month still to go this is truly the by election that never ends, but critically so much could change in that month. If the poll was held tomorrow I think the Tories could well win on a split vote, but Labour still has a long time (and the resources) to speak to every ‘tactical’ Lib Dem in the district and convince them that they can win. Maybe I have just had a busy summer but I feel like I’ve lived several lives since June 9th. I get the impression that the Lib Dems are more optimistic about their chances now than they were a few weeks ago. I don't think either them or Labour will succeed in squeezing the other much.
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2023 12:19:07 GMT
That would surprise me considering how optimistic they were a few weeks ago. I am if anything getting the opposite impression - and so do the bookmakers to some extent
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Sept 25, 2023 12:19:10 GMT
I am no expert on betting markets and am happy to be corrected (politely or otherwise) but if I have read it correctly the betting on the 3 major parties on SMarkets have moved:- 24.08 24.09 Con 18.87 32.26 Lab 20.83 38.17 LD 68.49 31.25 I'm not an expert either, but that's really hahaha (for those of us who want the Lib Dems to lose)
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 25, 2023 12:24:11 GMT
Apparently Postal Votes begin to be sent out this week. Given a likely low turnout , they are likely to amount to circa a good third of total votes cast. The next week or so,therefore, might be crtical in the context of a closely fought contest.
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2023 14:20:15 GMT
not sure about the low turnout. It will be relative to a general election, but I'm pretty sure it will be high by by-election standards.
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 25, 2023 14:25:33 GMT
I’m not aware of many Lib Dems who thought this was a high probability win in July, and views seem to be pretty similar now as they were then.
Punters (as opposed to Lib Dems) seem to have been initially over-influenced by previous Lib Dem by-election wins but have now woken up to the different dynamic of this seat and its genuinely three-way profile.
I currently see the Lib Dems and Labour as having pretty similar chances of winning…
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