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Post by batman on Oct 6, 2023 23:14:15 GMT
Some very good analysis by several contributors here. The forum at its best IMHO.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 6, 2023 23:29:06 GMT
Some very good analysis by several contributors here. The forum at its best IMHO. Batman, I have been travelling down Memory Lane recently, and wondered whether you might possibly be the 'Barnaby' I had some exchanges with on the original UKPR site? Prior to the 2015 GE I recall debating the likelihood of Simon Hughes being ousted in Southwark & Bermondsey. I viewed it as a possibility - though far from certain - whilst Barnaby expected his personal vote to be strong enough for him to survive. On that occasion, my instinct proved correct - but I do get it wrong sometimes!
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Post by Ron Swanson on Oct 7, 2023 6:54:04 GMT
Also, who cares how high the ceiling is, as long as it is above my head? The assumption that a Labour voter should vote Lib Dem to give then a massive majority over the Tories, when Labour can win with a reasonable majority, has always seemed bizarre to me. Indeed - there are statistically almost no constituencies where a party polling 40+ percent will have a lower ceiling than a party polling 10%+. The Lib Dems got lucky in North Shropshire due to their mobility and opportunism and Labour's sloth (and that Labour weren't quite so dominant in polling then) - but they'd struggle to win North Shropshire now. That is provided Labour put a campaign in. Could it be that the Lib Dems have ran out of gas in Mid Bedfordshire… and that actually Labour are more suited to longer campaigning?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2023 7:08:10 GMT
To be fair, if Labour can win in Olney (not far away) they can win in a place like Ampthill. Mid Bedfordshire is probably not that different to Milton Keynes' Olney ward.
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Post by batman on Oct 7, 2023 7:39:24 GMT
Some very good analysis by several contributors here. The forum at its best IMHO. Batman, I have been travelling down Memory Lane recently, and wondered whether you might possibly be the 'Barnaby' I had some exchanges with on the original UKPR site? Prior to the 2015 GE I recall debating the likelihood of Simon Hughes being ousted in Southwark & Bermondsey. I viewed it as a possibility - though far from certain - whilst Barnaby expected his personal vote to be strong enough for him to survive. On that occasion, my instinct proved correct - but I do get it wrong sometimes!
it's no big secret that I am that person, yes. As it happens I have an absolute loathing of Simon Hughes which I have had for 40 years and probably my prediction came before I canvassed in that constituency. One night's canvass made me much more optimistic, although it was interesting that Hughes's support was holding up much better in charity housing than in the council estates, where Coyle was very solid. Although I am very far indeed from being a fan of Neil Coyle, I was determined to play a part however small in getting rid of Hughes & remain proud of that very small part I played. Strangely enough I was talking about Neil Coyle with Ruth Cadbury yesterday evening; she told me that he has remarkable recognition in the constituency and is constantly greeted by local voters, more than she has seen for other MPs (although a few minutes in the company of Steve Pound in Ealing town centre - yes I know that wasn't in his constituency - was very similar, a few years ago. So many people greeted him & he knew who they all were too).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2023 8:29:00 GMT
To be fair, if Labour can win in Olney (not far away) they can win in a place like Ampthill. Mid Bedfordshire is probably not that different to Milton Keynes' Olney ward. Ampthill possibly not the best example to use as it's less commuterry than other places around. Biggleswade or Leighton Buzzard might be better examples, or possibly Barton-le-Clay for one actually in this constituency
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2023 8:39:49 GMT
The thing(s) about this constituency:
1. It is very different to C&A and even more do N Salop - yes, it is wealthy, but mostly high-earning commuters, of the "at least Tories cut my taxes" variety, which seems to be more loyal to the Tories than many other "types" of Tory vote
2. No other party has a strong local government base
All of this leads me to suspect that it will be better for the Tories than many are predicting.
3. There are no areas that you can point to as being solid for another party - even where the Tories are weak they are still ahead and neither the LDs or Lab have any actual strongholds
4. Bedfordshire is a county without a strong local identity which will blunt any LD "localist" campaign
5. Labour actually have several nearby areas with MPs and/or a lot of activists which reduces the LDs groundwork advantage.
All of this leads me to believe that if the Tories lose, they will lose to Labour.
As a final point, yes, there may very well be a vote split. But unlike previous by-elections a far higher proportion of LD voters would never consider voting Labour, so essentially any split will be a split between LDs and Tories more than LDs and Labour.
If forced to predict I would go for a narrow Tory hold, probably with Labour second but it's a very close call and I wouldn't make any firm predictions until we hear what's coming out of the count
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 7, 2023 10:47:11 GMT
The thing(s) about this constituency: 1. It is very different to C&A and even more do N Salop - yes, it is wealthy, but mostly high-earning commuters, of the "at least Tories cut my taxes" variety, which seems to be more loyal to the Tories than many other "types" of Tory vote 2. No other party has a strong local government base All of this leads me to suspect that it will be better for the Tories than many are predicting. 3. There are no areas that you can point to as being solid for another party - even where the Tories are weak they are still ahead and neither the LDs or Lab have any actual strongholds 4. Bedfordshire is a county without a strong local identity which will blunt any LD "localist" campaign 5. Labour actually have several nearby areas with MPs and/or a lot of activists which reduces the LDs groundwork advantage. All of this leads me to believe that if the Tories lose, they will lose to Labour. As a final point, yes, there may very well be a vote split. But unlike previous by-elections a far higher proportion of LD voters would never consider voting Labour, so essentially any split will be a split between LDs and Tories more than LDs and Labour. If forced to predict I would go for a narrow Tory hold, probably with Labour second but it's a very close call and I wouldn't make any firm predictions until we hear what's coming out of the count I think I agree with most of this, but I'd dispute the idea of this constituency being particularly wealthy. While incomes are above the national average and a relatively high proportion of residents work in well paid jobs, it's not particularly extreme in this regard. The sorts of jobs which are most overrepresented here include veterinary nurses, HR professionals, and office managers. In other words, this seat is more the domain of middle managers and private sector professionals, rather than of senior managers and officials. You also see this in the housing tenure profile, which I believe I mentioned earlier - the proportion owning their home outright here (a genuine hallmark of wealth, especially in the South East) is quite low, being roughly in line with the national average and below the regional average. What is exceptional is just how many people own their home but have a mortgage; at 39% this figure is one of the highest in the country.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2023 10:51:41 GMT
This is proving to me the opposite of Uxbridge - "rationally" we were always supposed to win that one comfortably, but there was always an instinctive nagging doubt (and not just because of previous byelection results there) which of course proved to be justified. Whereas here, all my rational senses continue to suggest this is a long Labour shot and the Tories are still favourites - but my gut is now saying that we can really do it! We shall know in a few weeks time how useful this all is
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Oct 8, 2023 17:46:27 GMT
Lol...
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 8, 2023 18:26:36 GMT
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Post by batman on Oct 8, 2023 18:41:00 GMT
yes, I was wondering that. There is more evidence that Labour is the main opposition to the Tories than that the Lib Dems are. Certainly at this stage.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 8, 2023 18:46:37 GMT
yes, I was wondering that. There is more evidence that Labour is the main opposition to the Tories than that the Lib Dems are. Certainly at this stage. Of course, we don't know how bona fide such a message is. The guy might be a firm committed Labour supporter rather than a LD switcher!
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Oct 8, 2023 18:59:01 GMT
If you are relying on social media vids to squeeze two weeks out then where are your activists?
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 8, 2023 19:10:57 GMT
If you are relying on social media vids to squeeze two weeks out then where are your activists? This is part of the campaign - they are pushing the LD-Labour switchers to build a momentum. They have not been short of activists in this campaign, and they aren't likely to be for the next 11 days either.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2023 21:40:52 GMT
Ooh, I love seeing the LDs get cross about having their own tactics thrown back at them
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Oct 9, 2023 0:09:12 GMT
One thing that hasn't been mentioned here is that the Tory campaign is a very NIMBY one - the lead campaign is against national housing targets, which the Lib Dems had an argument about at their conference and backed them.) Mid Beds has a huge amount of housing growth and more planned but it is surely well suited to take it, with stacks of land, mostly good transport links and expensive house prices. As has been noted it's in the top 50 wealthy constituencies - this is not left behind country, although it may be 'we get taken for granted' country.
So if the Tories do better than expected it may show that there is mileage in going NIMBY for them - Labour's pledge to allow green-belt building is being thrown back at them. However that's what they tried in Newport Pagnell a couple of weeks back with much more excuse - the main road into Newport being closed for a year for enabling infrastructure for 5000 houses - and they got laughed out of town.
Someone suggested Mid Beds is similar to Olney where Labour had a spectacular win in May. To a point, but I wouldn't get carried away - Olney is only 2/3 of Olney ward (try saying that 10 times after a couple of pints) and there was no serious campaigning outside Con/Lab. It's also a little less insular than some of the Mid Beds towns and villages.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Oct 9, 2023 0:18:31 GMT
On that topic, is the Lib Dem campaign pro or anti house-building?
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Oct 9, 2023 1:55:15 GMT
On that topic, is the Lib Dem campaign pro or anti house-building? No idea, I haven't seen any references to housing in the leaflets I've delivered / seen online. I'm sure they would give you a proper answer if you messaged them to ask although you might have to convince them you are local.
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skyep
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Post by skyep on Oct 9, 2023 20:04:43 GMT
it does feel a bit awkward towards the end of it, and somehow slightly too 'on message' in its delivery to be genuine in my mind If you are relying on social media vids to squeeze two weeks out then where are your activists?
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