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Post by matureleft on Sept 19, 2023 7:10:29 GMT
Applying an egregious 1990s EU Parliament result, we get: Mid Bedfordshire CON 33 -26 LAB 32 +10 LD 26 +13 IND 6 OTH 3 Eastleigh’s 1994 by-election swing gives a Conservative hold. The Tory Party could end up with a similar majority to Uxbridge here and in Tamworth, much to Labour’s chagrin. Not far off the poll that has it 34-34. Mid Beds is a toss-up. If the Tories can hold Mid Beds and Tamworth after keeping Uxbridge, then are we really heading for a repeat of 1997? Has anyone with any sense suggested that that's where we are?
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Post by andrewp on Sept 19, 2023 7:31:27 GMT
Applying an egregious 1990s EU Parliament result, we get: Mid Bedfordshire CON 33 -26 LAB 32 +10 LD 26 +13 IND 6 OTH 3 Eastleigh’s 1994 by-election swing gives a Conservative hold. The Tory Party could end up with a similar majority to Uxbridge here and in Tamworth, much to Labour’s chagrin. Not far off the poll that has it 34-34. Mid Beds is a toss-up. If the Tories can hold Mid Beds and Tamworth after keeping Uxbridge, then are we really heading for a repeat of 1997? I think most people suspect that we are not quite heading for a repeat of 1997. There isn’t the level of enthusiasm for Labour that there was then. Plus I once saw 1997 summarised as ‘ a landslide in seats not votes’- Labour got more seats than most people would have expected them to get with a 13% lead in 1997. I still think we are heading for a comfortable Labour majority, just not a 1997 one.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2023 8:32:39 GMT
Not far off the poll that has it 34-34. Mid Beds is a toss-up. If the Tories can hold Mid Beds and Tamworth after keeping Uxbridge, then are we really heading for a repeat of 1997? I think most people suspect that we are not quite heading for a repeat of 1997. There isn’t the level of enthusiasm for Labour that there was then. Plus I once saw 1997 summarised as ‘ a landslide in seats not votes’- Labour got more seats than most people would have expected them to get with a 13% lead in 1997. I still think we are heading for a comfortable Labour majority, just not a 1997 one. Tactical voting doing a lot of heavy lifting in 1997 and 2001.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,866
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Post by YL on Sept 19, 2023 8:35:30 GMT
Interesting snippet - Survation also asked - "How would you vote if this were a General Election: x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1703762018899996991?s=20LAB: 34% (+12 / +5) CON: 34% (-26 / +5) LDM: 16% (+3 / -6) GRN: 6% (+2 / +4) RFM: 6% (+6 / -1) IND: 3% (+2 / -3) Changes w/ (GE2019 / By-Election Poll) So, rather than the undecideds being Lib Dem-leaning, the Lib Dems are Labour-leaning. I do find that question a very unreliable one in this circumstance though Yes, it's always worth being cautious about secondary voting intention questions asked after a main one.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 19, 2023 12:56:02 GMT
I think most people suspect that we are not quite heading for a repeat of 1997. There isn’t the level of enthusiasm for Labour that there was then. Plus I once saw 1997 summarised as ‘ a landslide in seats not votes’- Labour got more seats than most people would have expected them to get with a 13% lead in 1997. I still think we are heading for a comfortable Labour majority, just not a 1997 one. Tactical voting doing a lot of heavy lifting in 1997 and 2001. Mostly where the gap between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats, or vice versa, was wide enough in 1992. It passed by Wiltshire and Suffolk big time.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 19, 2023 13:13:08 GMT
Tactical voting doing a lot of heavy lifting in 1997 and 2001. Mostly where the gap between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats, or vice versa, was wide enough in 1992. It passed by Wiltshire and Suffolk big time.This isn't true. There were swings from LD to Labour in all five Tory-held seats in Suffolk in both 1997 and 2001, in some cases quite large ones, it's just that the seats were safe enough that they still didn't flip.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,490
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 19, 2023 13:13:24 GMT
Applying an egregious 1990s EU Parliament result, we get: Mid Bedfordshire CON 33 -26 LAB 32 +10 LD 26 +13 IND 6 OTH 3 Eastleigh’s 1994 by-election swing gives a Conservative hold. The Tory Party could end up with a similar majority to Uxbridge here and in Tamworth, much to Labour’s chagrin. Not far off the poll that has it 34-34. Mid Beds is a toss-up. If the Tories can hold Mid Beds and Tamworth after keeping Uxbridge, then are we really heading for a repeat of 1997? Well you keep banging on about how the 2019 result means the Tories "should" hold Tamworth anyway - and Mid Beds had a Tory majority of 7k even in 1997. Anyway you are getting rather ahead of yourself here aren't you.....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2023 13:21:05 GMT
Not far off the poll that has it 34-34. Mid Beds is a toss-up. If the Tories can hold Mid Beds and Tamworth after keeping Uxbridge, then are we really heading for a repeat of 1997? Well you keep banging on about how the 2019 result means the Tories "should" hold Tamworth anyway - and Mid Beds had a Tory majority of 7k even in 1997. Anyway you are getting rather ahead of yourself here aren't you..... Do I? I said that Labour could win Tamworth if they get the swing they got in its predecessor constituency in the 90s by-election. I agree about Mid Beds and favour the Tories.
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Post by jonnysaintsfan on Sept 19, 2023 18:13:56 GMT
I note on Oddschecker that Labour are now marginal favourites. What do the Lib Dems have left given recent polling and their weird reliance on bookies odds?
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Post by johnloony on Sept 19, 2023 18:34:39 GMT
I note on Oddschecker that Labour are now marginal favourites. What do the Lib Dems have left given recent polling and their weird reliance on bookies odds? 537 million tonnes of Focus leaflets
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 19, 2023 19:48:54 GMT
I note on Oddschecker that Labour are now marginal favourites. What do the Lib Dems have left given recent polling and their weird reliance on bookies odds? Bar charts.
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Post by nobodyimportant on Sept 20, 2023 7:54:52 GMT
That is indeed a bar chart that is bullshit
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Sept 20, 2023 8:20:00 GMT
I think the Lib Dems are the worst (perhaps because they are the ones who focus most on tactical squeezes) but it's not hard to find examples of dodgy bar charts from other parties too. This appears to be a real Labour leaflet from Mid Beds: (The data are genuine, from the Opinium poll, but the axes are blatantly distorted.) (Source: this tweet)
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 20, 2023 8:52:32 GMT
I sometimes think that, as with FAQs, the forum should have a sections called FACs (Frequently Argued Controversies). Then, in any given by election thread, someone could post 'I cite section 17, paragraph (a)* of the FACs', and we could all skip over this and get on to proper discussion.
*Section 17, paragraph (a): A Tory/Labour (delete as appropriate) member of the forum will post a LibDem barchart and say how terrible the the LibDems are for this sort of thing. A LibDem member will then cite a Tory/Labour (delete as appropriate) barchart, and evyerone will point fingers for a bit until we all get bored.
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Post by batman on Sept 20, 2023 9:20:36 GMT
don't forget the Greens, they occasionally get involved in this kind of stuff too. Though probably less than the others.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 20, 2023 9:22:09 GMT
I think the Lib Dems are the worst (perhaps because they are the ones who focus most on tactical squeezes) but it's not hard to find examples of dodgy bar charts from other parties too. This appears to be a real Labour leaflet from Mid Beds: (The data are genuine, from the Opinium poll, but the axes are blatantly distorted.) (Source: this tweet) The axes aren't great, but it's not nearly as dodgy as this leaflet:
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 20, 2023 10:03:03 GMT
Deliberately seeking to mislead voters shows great contempt for the democratic process - indeed it makes a mockery of it. Almost as bad as as Fascism.
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Post by batman on Sept 20, 2023 10:49:16 GMT
Let's not bring fascism into it; I don't think it's remotely fair to compare Lib Dem leaflets with fascism. Fascism imprisons, tortures and kills people for their beliefs, or sometimes their disbility, ethnicity or religion. It is however a disgraceful leaflet, the sort of thing I have sadly come to expect with fair regularity. Why is it so hard for them just to say Vote for us, because X or Y policy or proposal is better than what the other parties are proposing?
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Post by johnloony on Sept 20, 2023 11:26:17 GMT
I want the Conservative Party to win the by-election (obviously), but if it doesn’t, I want it to be a close 3-way marginal with Conservative in 3rd place behind Labour and the Lib Dems. Just because it would be psephologically and historically interesting, like the various similar by-election results in the 1990s. I don’t want it to be just a Conservative defeat with Conservative in 2nd place, because that would be boring as well as disappointing. On balance, if it is a 3-way marginal result (with Conservative third), I would prefer Labour to win rather than the Liberal Democrats - merely because it would be more fun to annoy the Lib Dems and throw their smugness back in their face at a time when they are probably expecting to win. P.S. To make it even more interesting, large vote shares for the Independent and Green candidates would be useful in reducing the percentage share of the vote for the winner. I have changed my mind. I want the Lib Dems to be squeezed tactically, crushed into oblivion, and come in 5th place behind the Independent and Green candidates.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 20, 2023 11:47:44 GMT
Let's not bring fascism into it; I don't think it's remotely fair to compare Lib Dem leaflets with fascism. Fascism imprisons, tortures and kills people for their beliefs, or sometimes their disbility, ethnicity or religion. It is however a disgraceful leaflet, the sort of thing I have sadly come to expect with fair regularity. Why is it so hard for them just to say Vote for us, because X or Y policy or proposal is better than what the other parties are proposing? I was referring to all parties that behave in this way. It shows that their commitment to the democratic process is far from genuine.
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