Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2023 6:23:43 GMT
Applying an egregious 1990s EU Parliament result, we get:
Mid Bedfordshire
CON 33 -26 LAB 32 +10 LD 26 +13 IND 6 OTH 3
Eastleigh’s 1994 by-election swing gives a Conservative hold. The Tory Party could end up with a similar majority to Uxbridge here and in Tamworth, much to Labour’s chagrin.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 17, 2023 6:45:05 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire by-election poll: Lab 29%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 22%, Reform 7%, Ind 6%, TAF 4%, Green 2% Mid Bedfordshire General Election poll: Lab 34%, Con 34%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 6%, Reform 6%, Ind 3%, TAF 1%, Loonies 0%
That suggests to me that it is the Liberal Democrats are who are benefitting from tactical voting in the by-election and that the Independent and the True and Fair Party is also helping reduce the Conservative share, however as nominations don't offically close until Friday, there is still a chance that the Conservatives "presuade" those two candidates not to stand.
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 17, 2023 6:58:08 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire by-election poll: Lab 29%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 22%, Reform 7%, Ind 6%, TAF 4%, Green 2% Mid Bedfordshire General Election poll: Lab 34%, Con 34%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 6%, Reform 6%, Ind 3%, TAF 1%, Loonies 0% That suggests to me that it is the Liberal Democrats are who are benefitting from tactical voting in the by-election and that the Independent and the True and Fair Party is also helping reduce the Conservative share, however as nominations don't offically close until Friday, there is still a chance that the Conservatives "presuade" those two candidates not to stand. Wasn’t the ‘GE poll’ carried out two months ago, which means the difference might be indicative of the progress in bringing the uncommitted into various folds, or more rarely making direct switches… Or one or both could just be unreliable. I would certainly expect the Lib Dem’s to start from a lower base than Labour, and therefore be behind at this stage, regardless of what the final outcome is.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Sept 17, 2023 7:11:52 GMT
Mid Bedfordshire by-election poll: Lab 29%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 22%, Reform 7%, Ind 6%, TAF 4%, Green 2% Mid Bedfordshire General Election poll: Lab 34%, Con 34%, Lib Dem 16%, Green 6%, Reform 6%, Ind 3%, TAF 1%, Loonies 0% That suggests to me that it is the Liberal Democrats are who are benefitting from tactical voting in the by-election and that the Independent and the True and Fair Party is also helping reduce the Conservative share, however as nominations don't offically close until Friday, there is still a chance that the Conservatives "presuade" those two candidates not to stand. Wasn’t the ‘GE poll’ carried out two months ago, which means the difference might be indicative of the progress in bringing the uncommitted into various folds, or more rarely making direct switches… Or one or both could just be unreliable. I would certainly expect the Lib Dem’s to start from a lower base than Labour, and therefore be behind at this stage, regardless of what the final outcome is. No, the "GE poll" quoted above is a later question in Survation's by-election poll.
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 17, 2023 8:40:12 GMT
Wasn’t the ‘GE poll’ carried out two months ago, which means the difference might be indicative of the progress in bringing the uncommitted into various folds, or more rarely making direct switches… Or one or both could just be unreliable. I would certainly expect the Lib Dem’s to start from a lower base than Labour, and therefore be behind at this stage, regardless of what the final outcome is. No, the "GE poll" quoted above is a later question in Survation's by-election poll. Fair enough, thanks - I had missed that. They look pretty similar to the numbers from the constituency poll earlier in the summer though, I think? I wouldn’t think Lib Dem HQ are surprised or downhearted by these numbers - I suspect that they are what would be expected at this stage. Labour still favourites in my book, Tories second and Lib Dem’s third, but all remain potential winners IMHO.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 17, 2023 9:14:58 GMT
With the potential for a split vote so high, no wonder the Conservatives have odds as generous (given the circumstances) as 2/1 to hold this seat. The best Lib Dem odds, meanwhile, are 10/11, and Labour's 9/4. The bookmakers are really hoping for a field day even though odds like that will in practice indicate that the Conservatives are more likely to hold this seat than not. I looked on Oddschecker and did some back of a fag packet maths, the overround looks around 3.2% so not much of a bookies field day yet but I expect that will widen considerably before polling day.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 17, 2023 9:19:39 GMT
a sad loss both for you and Bradford, which you should seek to remedy As it happens I may well do so in the not too distant future Bradford Interchange has a massive Greggs, and isn't too far from the pleasant looking town hall (City Hall I suppose). Obviously the Greggs is less of an incentive if you're driving, but it does seem to carry the full range including scotch pies.
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cjohn
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Post by cjohn on Sept 17, 2023 9:21:31 GMT
The Survation survey has a sample of 559.
At a 95% confidence level, this gives an accuracy of around plus or minus 4.2% on each score. (In 5% of cases, the sample will produce an even bigger deviation from the underlying reality.)
So the best we can say is that the three main parties are not that far from each other. And that Mackie and Green are out of it.
There is a particular problem with geographical lumpiness of support in mid-Beds with LD and CON support higher in the more rural areas and Labour higher in the towns. This increases the possiblity of more egregrious errors.
So it seems to me, we await a larger independent survey which would give a more reliable figure.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,490
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 17, 2023 9:24:30 GMT
Some heroic spin from the LibDems on here and elsewhere, but the fact remains they totally believed they were the main challengers here when this byelection first became a real prospect (as did many others tbf) and would have expected themselves to be well out in front by now with Labour a clear third.
They put on support towards polling day in their previous byelection wins because of tactical anti-Tory voting, why should that apply now? Saying (as some have) "we still have a higher ceiling than Labour here so vote for us" may impress electoral nerds - indeed, it may be sort of true - but isn't the stuff of which famous victories are made.
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Post by islington on Sept 17, 2023 9:24:56 GMT
The Survation survey has a sample of 559. At a 95% confidence level, this gives an accuracy of around plus or minus 4.2% on each score. (In 5% of cases, the sample will produce an even bigger deviation from the underlying reality.) So the best we can say is that the three main parties are not that far from each other. And that Mackie and Green are out of it. There is a particular problem with geographical lumpiness of support in mid-Beds with LD and CON support higher in the more rural areas and Labour higher in the towns. This increases the possiblity of more egregrious errors. So it seems to me, we await a larger independent survey which would give a more reliable figure. There's one due on 19 Oct.
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Post by grumpyguy on Sept 17, 2023 10:33:51 GMT
The Survation survey has a sample of 559. At a 95% confidence level, this gives an accuracy of around plus or minus 4.2% on each score. (In 5% of cases, the sample will produce an even bigger deviation from the underlying reality.) So the best we can say is that the three main parties are not that far from each other. And that Mackie and Green are out of it. There is a particular problem with geographical lumpiness of support in mid-Beds with LD and CON support higher in the more rural areas and Labour higher in the towns. This increases the possiblity of more egregrious errors. So it seems to me, we await a larger independent survey which would give a more reliable figure.
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cjohn
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Post by cjohn on Sept 17, 2023 10:34:50 GMT
Really. I didn't know that.
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Post by grumpyguy on Sept 17, 2023 11:11:40 GMT
In fact 559 is not the relevant figure for this poll (and Labour activists would do well not to say it was). After deducting undecideds and declared non-voters, Survation give a figure of 319 weighted voters. The margin of error this produces surely makes the figures given for the candidates very doubtful, which might explain why True But Fair appear to be outpolling the Green candidate, for example. The poll also appears to contain another potential source of error, that Survation have not asked their respondents if they are registered to vote. As unregistered potential voters tend to be younger than average, and younger voters are more likely to vote Labour, it's possible Labour's figures are not quite as good as they seem (although of course, there's plenty of time for voters still to register).
That said, the figures are not out of line with what might be expected, for the 3 largest parties anyway, and can be compared with the July VI poll, for what that's worth. They can be compared on the Wikipedia by-election page. The Tories have gone from 24 to 29.2%, Labour from 28 to 29.2% and Libdems from 15 to 21.9 %. The figures may be doubtful, but if the trend of Labour growing their vote more slowly than the Tories carries on, Mid-Beds will stay Tory.
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 17, 2023 12:09:10 GMT
Not wise to compare pollsters who use different methodologies.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 18, 2023 9:08:40 GMT
Not wise to compare pollsters who use different methodologies. Not just that, but one is (mostly) phone and the other online.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 18, 2023 15:36:26 GMT
Interesting snippet - Survation also asked - "How would you vote if this were a General Election: x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1703762018899996991?s=20LAB: 34% (+12 / +5) CON: 34% (-26 / +5) LDM: 16% (+3 / -6) GRN: 6% (+2 / +4) RFM: 6% (+6 / -1) IND: 3% (+2 / -3) Changes w/ (GE2019 / By-Election Poll) So, rather than the undecideds being Lib Dem-leaning, the Lib Dems are Labour-leaning.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 18, 2023 16:17:39 GMT
Interesting snippet - Survation also asked - "How would you vote if this were a General Election: x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1703762018899996991?s=20LAB: 34% (+12 / +5) CON: 34% (-26 / +5) LDM: 16% (+3 / -6) GRN: 6% (+2 / +4) RFM: 6% (+6 / -1) IND: 3% (+2 / -3) Changes w/ (GE2019 / By-Election Poll) So, rather than the undecideds being Lib Dem-leaning, the Lib Dems are Labour-leaning. I do find that question a very unreliable one in this circumstance though
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 18, 2023 16:21:32 GMT
Interesting snippet - Survation also asked - "How would you vote if this were a General Election: x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1703762018899996991?s=20LAB: 34% (+12 / +5) CON: 34% (-26 / +5) LDM: 16% (+3 / -6) GRN: 6% (+2 / +4) RFM: 6% (+6 / -1) IND: 3% (+2 / -3) Changes w/ (GE2019 / By-Election Poll) So, rather than the undecideds being Lib Dem-leaning, the Lib Dems are Labour-leaning. I do find that question a very unreliable one in this circumstance though Aren't they all?
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Post by stb12 on Sept 18, 2023 16:26:02 GMT
I do find that question a very unreliable one in this circumstance though Aren't they all? Well indeed, but I imagine a lot of people will still have a by-election head on with that one even with the hypothetical GE scenario
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2023 6:17:13 GMT
Applying an egregious 1990s EU Parliament result, we get: Mid Bedfordshire CON 33 -26 LAB 32 +10 LD 26 +13 IND 6 OTH 3 Eastleigh’s 1994 by-election swing gives a Conservative hold. The Tory Party could end up with a similar majority to Uxbridge here and in Tamworth, much to Labour’s chagrin. Not far off the poll that has it 34-34. Mid Beds is a toss-up. If the Tories can hold Mid Beds and Tamworth after keeping Uxbridge, then are we really heading for a repeat of 1997?
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