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Post by stodge on Sept 16, 2023 15:52:00 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron. Seriously? Is that the best you've got after 13 years? Brexit, Covid, war in the Ukraine - no, none of that matters, all that matters is tuition fees which is ancient history.
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Post by stodge on Sept 16, 2023 15:55:06 GMT
Moving on, the Survation poll makes it clear it's all still to play for with a lot of Undecideds out there.
The forthcoming Party Conference season may make a difference or it may not.
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Post by johnloony on Sept 16, 2023 16:25:26 GMT
The problem with this is that there are still 3 weeks to go, which is plenty of time to enable one party (Labour or Lib Dem) to become the main challenger to the Conservative Party, and/or for one of the 3 main parties to be squeezed out, and/or for it to become a 2-horse race. In Ealing Southall (for example) it had the potential to be a 3-way marginal, and it was realistic for any of the 3 main parties to win, but the result ended up as 15 / 10 / 8. From a purely psephological / anorak point of view, I would want Bedfordshire Mid to be an exciting 3-way marginal (like Brecon & Radnor was in 1985), but the reality is that I don’t think it will be. What makes it even worse is that I think that the Lib Dems are more likely to become the main challenger (rather than Labour) and probably win. By the time we get to the final few days, the betting won’t be anything like 2.7 / 3.3 / 3.7 any more. Actually there are nearly 5 weeks to Polling Day here. Oh yes. I blame the SNP for having a different date for Rutherglen.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 16, 2023 16:38:25 GMT
Moving on, the Survation poll makes it clear it's all still to play for with a lot of Undecideds out there. The forthcoming Party Conference season may make a difference or it may not. I don't really think there's much to play for for the Tories. Preventing an inconclusive verdict between Labour and LDs, and the third place finish that that would mean, is not in their or any other individual actor's power. It's also likely to happen naturally.
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 16, 2023 16:38:40 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron. This is about as relevant s asking if the voters will remember the Iraq war and related lies...
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Post by matureleft on Sept 16, 2023 16:46:40 GMT
Imagine being a voter here. Over a month more of leaflets, phone calls, knocks on the door by strangers unfamiliar with the place, people hanging about in shopping areas. In a place that hasn’t been seriously contested in living memory.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 16, 2023 18:27:30 GMT
Imagine being a voter here. Over a month more of leaflets, phone calls, knocks on the door by strangers unfamiliar with the place, people hanging about in shopping areas. In a place that hasn’t been seriously contested in living memory. Lucky sods!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2023 18:42:42 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron. No, they’re clearly still fuming over Black Wednesday.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Sept 16, 2023 18:50:23 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron. I was only gaining a semi-interest in politics then but I don't ever remember hearing anything about Clegg ruling out or expressing a preference for either party when it came to coalitions
He didn't, but the tone of the campaign was tution fee's etc, getting left leaning voters out to vote for the Liberal Democrats, who then deliberately shat on those voters. They paid the price with those voters in 2015. Those voters will take a lot of convincing to vote Liberal Democrats again. Other voters and newer voters won't be that bothered by that particular bit of political history.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 16, 2023 19:47:51 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron. No, they’re clearly still fuming over Black Wednesday. Round our way, they talk of nothing else but the Gold Standard Act of 1925.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 16, 2023 19:48:13 GMT
I was only gaining a semi-interest in politics then but I don't ever remember hearing anything about Clegg ruling out or expressing a preference for either party when it came to coalitions
He didn't, but the tone of the campaign was tution fee's etc, getting left leaning voters out to vote for the Liberal Democrats, who then deliberately shat on those voters. They paid the price with those voters in 2015. Those voters will take a lot of convincing to vote Liberal Democrats again. Other voters and newer voters won't be that bothered by that particular bit of political history.
Indeed so. I voted LD in 2001 and 2005 when Charles Kennedy was their Leader but would not consider doing so again. Alienated left of centre voters are now much more likely to switch to the Greens.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,866
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Post by YL on Sept 16, 2023 20:06:40 GMT
Someone on Twitter has posted what they claim is "internal Labour polling" which is quite similar to the Survation poll but has the Lib Dems higher at the Tories' expense and in second place. Does anyone know if it's real?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 16, 2023 20:08:42 GMT
Someone on Twitter has posted what they claim is "internal Labour polling" which is quite similar to the Survation poll but has the Lib Dems higher at the Tories' expense and in second place. Does anyone know if it's real? I have requested a source, but I doubt I will get one. Seems rubbish to me - I stand to be corrected.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 16, 2023 20:36:13 GMT
I was only gaining a semi-interest in politics then but I don't ever remember hearing anything about Clegg ruling out or expressing a preference for either party when it came to coalitions
He didn't, but the tone of the campaign was tution fee's etc, getting left leaning voters out to vote for the Liberal Democrats, who then deliberately shat on those voters. They paid the price with those voters in 2015. Those voters will take a lot of convincing to vote Liberal Democrats again. Other voters and newer voters won't be that bothered by that particular bit of political history.
They also lost a lot of Conservative minded voters because of the Brexit stance but going by recent by-elections that is being moved on from to some extent It will take a few years of a Labour government for the Lib Dems to be threatening their heartlands again but I think it will happen
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 16, 2023 20:50:10 GMT
He didn't, but the tone of the campaign was tution fee's etc, getting left leaning voters out to vote for the Liberal Democrats, who then deliberately shat on those voters. They paid the price with those voters in 2015. Those voters will take a lot of convincing to vote Liberal Democrats again. Other voters and newer voters won't be that bothered by that particular bit of political history.
They also lost a lot of Conservative minded voters because of the Brexit stance but going by recent by-elections that is being moved on from to some extent It will take a few years of a Labour government for the Lib Dems to be threatening their heartlands again but I think it will happen Even at that point such voters will be more likely to vote Green rather than LD.
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Post by stb12 on Sept 16, 2023 21:01:52 GMT
They also lost a lot of Conservative minded voters because of the Brexit stance but going by recent by-elections that is being moved on from to some extent It will take a few years of a Labour government for the Lib Dems to be threatening their heartlands again but I think it will happen Even at that point such voters will be more likely to vote Green rather than LD. The Greens still don’t have the base that the Lib Dems do so unless that changes quickly then it could come down to tactical convenience as much as anything else
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 16, 2023 21:21:36 GMT
Even at that point such voters will be more likely to vote Green rather than LD. The Greens still don’t have the base that the Lib Dems do so unless that changes quickly then it could come down to tactical convenience as much as anything else I don't doubt that , but pre- Coalition the LDs were widely seen as the obvious NOTA option - particularly at by elections. They have lost that position - certainly with many left of centre voters - and there is much greather awareness of other NOTA options being available p whether via the Greens or Ukip et al. Not everyone who voted Ukip in 2015 was a Brexiteer - quite a few saw them as anti - Establishment .
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 16, 2023 22:01:48 GMT
The Greens still don’t have the base that the Lib Dems do so unless that changes quickly then it could come down to tactical convenience as much as anything else I don't doubt that , but pre- Coalition the LDs were widely seen as the obvious NOTA option - particularly at by elections. They have lost that position - certainly with many left of centre voters - and there is much greather awareness of other NOTA options being available p whether via the Greens or Ukip et al. Not everyone who voted Ukip in 2015 was a Brexiteer - quite a few saw them as anti - Establishment . In 2010 the Lib Dems had just under 4,000 councillors across the UK and the Greens had a handful. Now the Lib Dems have just under 3,000 councillors and the Greens 750. So for around 25% of the UK electorate the Greens have replaced the Lib Dems as the NOTA option.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2023 3:26:22 GMT
No, they’re clearly still fuming over Black Wednesday. Round our way, they talk of nothing else but the Gold Standard Act of 1925. The Corn Laws surely come up on doorsteps in Mid Beds.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,866
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Post by YL on Sept 17, 2023 6:13:58 GMT
Fuller figures and tables for the Survation poll: www.survation.com/mid-bedfordshire-by-election-update/It appears that all declared candidates were prompted for. Akinbusoye (Con) 29% Strathern (Lab) 29% Holland-Lindsay (Lib Dem) 22% Holland (Reform UK) 7% Mackey (Ind) 6% Victor (True and Fair) 4% Sibley (Green) 2%
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