The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2023 10:31:23 GMT
Just passing by. PS. In both instances, the LibDems didn't win - indeed in Liverpool they came third.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 15, 2023 12:17:07 GMT
Just passing by. PS. In both instances, the LibDems didn't win - indeed in Liverpool they came third. But in Lincoln, they did exactly what they said they'd done elsewhere and pushed the Cons down to 3rd.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2023 5:17:19 GMT
2% between 1st and 3rd in Mid Beds: LAB 33% LD 31% CON 31%. This probably squeezes the Indy. I guess the silver lining for the Tories is that this may shift some Labour activity away from Tamworth. The Tories can quite conceivably hold both seats by the skin of their teeth, like how they held Uxbridge. x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1702621524874702870?s=20
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
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Post by Roger Harmer on Sept 16, 2023 8:17:32 GMT
Lib Dems now back as clear favourites on both Smarkets and the more heavily traded Betfair Exchange, with the Tories drifting out in third.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2023 10:27:50 GMT
I would have thought Labour have enough manpower to cover properly both Tamworth and Mid Beds if it comes to that.
And let's not forget the Tories have to defend both at the same time too!
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Post by johnloony on Sept 16, 2023 11:04:08 GMT
Lib Dems now back as clear favourites on both Smarkets and the more heavily traded Betfair Exchange, with the Tories drifting out in third. The problem with this is that there are still 3 weeks to go, which is plenty of time to enable one party (Labour or Lib Dem) to become the main challenger to the Conservative Party, and/or for one of the 3 main parties to be squeezed out, and/or for it to become a 2-horse race. In Ealing Southall (for example) it had the potential to be a 3-way marginal, and it was realistic for any of the 3 main parties to win, but the result ended up as 15 / 10 / 8. From a purely psephological / anorak point of view, I would want Bedfordshire Mid to be an exciting 3-way marginal (like Brecon & Radnor was in 1985), but the reality is that I don’t think it will be. What makes it even worse is that I think that the Lib Dems are more likely to become the main challenger (rather than Labour) and probably win. By the time we get to the final few days, the betting won’t be anything like 2.7 / 3.3 / 3.7 any more.
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Post by elinorhelyn on Sept 16, 2023 11:17:54 GMT
R.E: The LD/Labour bumfight: LDs like to use N Shorpshire as an example for Labour to aside in Mid Beds but Labour were nowhere near ahead enough in the polls to be competitive so it was left to the LDs. Now there ahead enough in the polls and there were a clear second place in 2019 so they are competitive. There is also the ideas the Labour can't compete in a rural seat, that's were the "traditional values" smear of the Lab candidate came from, but they've obviously forgotten about Selby and Ainsty in that regard. Ultimately Labour are a national party and we deploy our resources where we can win and we have more resources than the LDs. I don't think this will end well for LDs.
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 16, 2023 11:40:52 GMT
Lib Dems now back as clear favourites on both Smarkets and the more heavily traded Betfair Exchange, with the Tories drifting out in third. Someone from LD HQ just lumped another couple of hundred on their candidate. Easy enough to shift the odds in your favour - just in time for the next leaflet.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 16, 2023 11:49:57 GMT
Lib Dems now back as clear favourites on both Smarkets and the more heavily traded Betfair Exchange, with the Tories drifting out in third. Someone from LD HQ just lumped another couple of hundred on their candidate. Easy enough to shift the odds in your favour - just in time for the next leaflet. I have a suspicion that a bit of that is happening. The LDs need to control the narrative to the extent that they are not widely perceived as no longer being favourites at all. A poll or two might sink that strategy.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 16, 2023 11:51:02 GMT
Lib Dems now back as clear favourites on both Smarkets and the more heavily traded Betfair Exchange, with the Tories drifting out in third. The problem with this is that there are still 3 weeks to go, which is plenty of time to enable one party (Labour or Lib Dem) to become the main challenger to the Conservative Party, and/or for one of the 3 main parties to be squeezed out, and/or for it to become a 2-horse race. In Ealing Southall (for example) it had the potential to be a 3-way marginal, and it was realistic for any of the 3 main parties to win, but the result ended up as 15 / 10 / 8. From a purely psephological / anorak point of view, I would want Bedfordshire Mid to be an exciting 3-way marginal (like Brecon & Radnor was in 1985), but the reality is that I don’t think it will be. What makes it even worse is that I think that the Lib Dems are more likely to become the main challenger (rather than Labour) and probably win. By the time we get to the final few days, the betting won’t be anything like 2.7 / 3.3 / 3.7 any more. Actually there are nearly 5 weeks to Polling Day here.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 16, 2023 12:00:45 GMT
There is also the ideas the Labour can't compete in a rural seat, that's were the "traditional values" smear of the Lab candidate came from, but they've obviously forgotten about Selby and Ainsty in that regard. Which is a significantly more rural constituency than this one. Though I think that making a thing of the supposed rurality of Mid Beds is very much an attempt to flatter the pretenses of some of its residents.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2023 12:52:08 GMT
Someone from LD HQ just lumped another couple of hundred on their candidate. Easy enough to shift the odds in your favour - just in time for the next leaflet. I have a suspicion that a bit of that is happening. The LDs need to control the narrative to the extent that they are not widely perceived as no longer being favourites at all. A poll or two might sink that strategy. Nobody’s stopping other parties from doing the same.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Sept 16, 2023 12:55:34 GMT
Before we get too excited.
"Publication of statement of persons nominated, including notice of poll and situation of polling stations. 22 September 2023"
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 16, 2023 13:11:23 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2023 13:16:37 GMT
There is also the ideas the Labour can't compete in a rural seat, that's were the "traditional values" smear of the Lab candidate came from, but they've obviously forgotten about Selby and Ainsty in that regard. Which is a significantly more rural constituency than this one. Though I think that making a thing of the supposed rurality of Mid Beds is very much an attempt to flatter the pretenses of some of its residents. Although Selby & Ainsty is in the north, FWIW.
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Post by jonnysaintsfan on Sept 16, 2023 13:50:39 GMT
But Tim Farron?!? A self=declared Christian wouldn't lie, surely.
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Post by jakegb on Sept 16, 2023 14:50:51 GMT
2% between 1st and 3rd in Mid Beds: LAB 33% LD 31% CON 31%. This probably squeezes the Indy. I guess the silver lining for the Tories is that this may shift some Labour activity away from Tamworth. The Tories can quite conceivably hold both seats by the skin of their teeth, like how they held Uxbridge. x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1702621524874702870?s=20Most definitely. Though these by-election produce rich opportunities for Lab, I imagine they are nervous, after the Uxbridge by-election. Though of course there is no ULEZ to worry about! They do - of course - have to give both contests a serious bash. Unlike Somerton + Frome, the Lib Dems have no major electoral success in either seat. Not that, that stopped them in C & A or N Shropshire! Yet, I can see Lab being complacent in Tamworth (the weaker of the two opportunities for the Libs), at the expense of Mid Beds where they let the Tories through the middle. Strategy will be crucial ... and in July's by-elections, cracks appeared for Lab, despite the stunning win in S & A.
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Post by gibbon on Sept 16, 2023 15:32:01 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Sept 16, 2023 15:38:22 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron. probably not (remember, or more accurately, care)
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Post by stb12 on Sept 16, 2023 15:50:57 GMT
Will the voters in both seats remember the promises made by Clegg and the breach of promises made by them to the electorate about tuition fees and trust them again? In 2010 Clegg gave them the impression that they would not support Cameron. I was only gaining a semi-interest in politics then but I don't ever remember hearing anything about Clegg ruling out or expressing a preference for either party when it came to coalitions
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